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Sha Tin · 2024-12-18 · 13:55

Race 6

Class 4 1650m 13 runners

Race 6 at Sha Tin on 2024-12-18 was Class 4 over 1650m. SIGHT SUPREME, ridden by B Avdulla and trained by J Size, won by NOSE, with SPANGLE FORTUNE second and VIVA CHALEUR third. The winner closed strongly from off the pace. The 3.4 favourite RELIABLE PROFIT finished 5th.

Result

Official · 1.38.95
Pos No. Horse Draw Odds Margin
1 10 SIGHT SUPREME Closed strongly B 1.38.95 ▶ Replay (opens in new tab) B Avdulla · J Size 9 9.6 NOSE
2 12 SPANGLE FORTUNE Closed strongly B/TT P N Wong · K L Man 12 14.0 NOSE
3 5 VIVA CHALEUR Closed strongly H/PC/TT L Ferraris · P C Ng 5 11.0 N
4 3 MASSIVE ACTION Led early SR/V H T Mo · F C Lor 3 21.0 2
5 4 RELIABLE PROFIT Closed strongly P/TT H Bowman · C S Shum 10 3.4 2-1/2
6 9 REGENT GLORY B-/CP2 A Hamelin · D A Hayes 2 24.0 3
7 11 YEAH BUDDY H/V/TT K C Leung · W K Mo 4 26.0 3
8 13 YODA'S CHOICE CP/TT A Pouchin · P C Ng 11 4.5 3-3/4
9 1 TALE OF PERTH B B Thompson · M Newnham 1 18.0 4-1/2
10 8 ACE POWER Closed strongly B/TT M Chadwick · D J Whyte 13 33.0 7-1/2
11 6 ALL ARE MINE H/TT Y L Chung · A S Cruz 7 40.0 9-1/2
12 7 JUMBO FORTUNE V-/PC2/TT J McDonald · D Eustace 6 5.1 14-1/4
13 2 THE WAY WE WIN CP/TT M L Yeung · C S Shum 8 104.0 20

Race shape

Beaten lengths
1. SIGHT SUPREME2. SPANGLE FORTUNE+0.05L3. VIVA CHALEUR+0.05L4. MASSIVE ACTION+2L5. RELIABLE PROFIT+2.5L6. REGENT GLORY+3L7. YEAH BUDDY+3L8. YODA'S CHOICE+3.75L9. TALE OF PERTH+4.5L10. ACE POWER+7.5L

Model ratings

Backtest · wf-2024-25
The model's top pick JUMBO FORTUNE (27.8%) finished 12th — the winner SIGHT SUPREME was rated #6. Out-of-sample backtest: this board was produced by a model trained only on seasons before this race — it never saw this result.
Rank No. Horse Win % Rated price Pos
1 7 JUMBO FORTUNE 27.8% 3.60 12
2 4 RELIABLE PROFIT 19.4% 5.15 5
3 5 VIVA CHALEUR 11.4% 8.81 3
4 13 YODA'S CHOICE 7.3% 13.72 8
5 9 REGENT GLORY 6.6% 15.23 6
6 10 SIGHT SUPREME 5.8% 17.13 1
7 6 ALL ARE MINE 4.7% 21.45 11
8 11 YEAH BUDDY 4.4% 22.51 7
9 12 SPANGLE FORTUNE 4.4% 22.82 2
10 8 ACE POWER 3.1% 32.04 10
11 3 MASSIVE ACTION 3.1% 32.54 4
12 1 TALE OF PERTH 1.4% 72.30 9
13 2 THE WAY WE WIN 0.7% 148.95 13
JUMBO FORTUNERELIABLE PROFITVIVA CHALEURYODA'S CHOICEREGENT GLORYSIGHT SUPREME — wonALL ARE MINEYEAH BUDDYSPANGLE FORTUNEACE POWERMASSIVE ACTIONTALE OF PERTHTHE WAY WE WIN

Model vs market

Each dot is a runner: model probability across, market-implied probability up. Dots on the dashed line mean the two agreed; the gold ring is the actual winner.

Ratings are statistical estimates for analysis, not betting advice — the backtest shows no profitable edge against the Hong Kong win market. How the model works →

Dividends

Per $10 unit

WIN

10 96.5

PLACE

5 34.5

10 31.5

12 39.5

QUINELLA

10,12 857.5

QUINELLA PLACE

5,10 155

5,12 200

10,12 225

FORECAST

10,12 1,421

TIERCE

10,12,5 12,572

TRIO

5,10,12 2,974

FIRST 4

3,5,10,12 14,109

QUARTET

10,12,5,3 226,873

All pools (4 more)

3RD DOUBLE TRIO

6,10,13/5,10,12 1,357,673

5TH DOUBLE

6/10 961

6/12 190

TRIPLE TRIO

4,7,10/6,10,13/5,10,12 31,261,148

TRIPLE TRIO (CONSOLATION)

4,7,10/6,10,13/Any Combination 15,161