Sha Tin · 2024-12-18 · 12:55
Race 4
Race 4 at Sha Tin on 2024-12-18 was Class 4 over 1200m. MOJAVE DESERT, ridden by L Ferraris and trained by M Newnham, won by 1/2, with VULCANUS second and CHILL KAKA third. The 2.5 favourite GOLDEN LONG finished 10th.
Result
| Pos | No. | Horse | Jockey | Trainer | Draw | Odds | Margin |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 4 | MOJAVE DESERT B-/XB1 1.09.03 ▶ Replay (opens in new tab) L Ferraris · M Newnham | L Ferraris | M Newnham | 3 | 5.6 | 1/2 |
| 2 | 10 | VULCANUS C Y Ho · Y S Tsui | C Y Ho | Y S Tsui | 4 | 4.8 | 1/2 |
| 3 | 7 | CHILL KAKA PC1 A Pouchin · P F Yiu | A Pouchin | P F Yiu | 5 | 11.0 | 1-1/4 |
| 4 | 8 | SKY DEEP B/XB A Hamelin · C Fownes | A Hamelin | C Fownes | 1 | 14.0 | 1-1/2 |
| 5 | 6 | NATURAL HIGH B1 P N Wong · D J Hall | P N Wong | D J Hall | 7 | 35.0 | 2-1/4 |
| 6 | 9 | LIGHTNING BOLT B-/TT H Bowman · C S Shum | H Bowman | C S Shum | 2 | 8.1 | 2-1/4 |
| 7 | 12 | PERFECT PEACH P/TT M L Yeung · C W Chang | M L Yeung | C W Chang | 9 | 65.0 | 4-1/2 |
| 8 | 3 | KING GLORIOSO CP-/B1 H Bentley · D J Whyte | H Bentley | D J Whyte | 6 | 98.0 | 4-3/4 |
| 9 | 5 | E UNIVERSE B-/V1/TT M Chadwick · W K Mo | M Chadwick | W K Mo | 8 | 63.0 | 8 |
| 10 | 1 | GOLDEN LONG H/TT J McDonald · F C Lor | J McDonald | F C Lor | 12 | 2.5 | 8-3/4 |
| 11 | 2 | GOR MO TUEN TT C L Chau · D A Hayes | C L Chau | D A Hayes | 10 | 120.0 | 10 |
| 12 | 11 | GOOD VIEW GLORY B B Thompson · C H Yip | B Thompson | C H Yip | 11 | 12.0 | 11-1/4 |
Race shape
Model ratings
| Rank | No. | Horse | Win % | Rated price | Pos |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 10 | VULCANUS | 25.8% | 3.88 | 2 |
| 2 | 1 | GOLDEN LONG | 17.2% | 5.80 | 10 |
| 3 | 4 | MOJAVE DESERT | 15.6% | 6.43 | 1 |
| 4 | 7 | CHILL KAKA | 10.9% | 9.14 | 3 |
| 5 | 9 | LIGHTNING BOLT | 10.3% | 9.67 | 6 |
| 6 | 11 | GOOD VIEW GLORY | 6.4% | 15.72 | 12 |
| 7 | 12 | PERFECT PEACH | 3.6% | 28.17 | 7 |
| 8 | 5 | E UNIVERSE | 3.2% | 31.00 | 9 |
| 9 | 8 | SKY DEEP | 2.9% | 34.29 | 4 |
| 10 | 3 | KING GLORIOSO | 1.6% | 61.66 | 8 |
| 11 | 2 | GOR MO TUEN | 1.3% | 76.69 | 11 |
| 12 | 6 | NATURAL HIGH | 1.2% | 85.30 | 5 |
Model vs market
Each dot is a runner: model probability across, market-implied probability up. Dots on the dashed line mean the two agreed; the gold ring is the actual winner.
Ratings are statistical estimates for analysis, not betting advice — the backtest shows no profitable edge against the Hong Kong win market. How the model works →
Dividends
WIN
4 56
PLACE
4 18.5
7 33
10 16.5
QUINELLA
4,10 117
QUINELLA PLACE
4,7 92
4,10 40
7,10 87
FORECAST
4,10 248
TIERCE
4,10,7 1,933
TRIO
4,7,10 304
FIRST 4
4,7,8,10 576
QUARTET
4,10,7,8 12,211
All pools (2 more)
2ND DOUBLE TRIO
2,7,8/4,7,10 18,837
3RD DOUBLE
7/4 131
7/10 16.5