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Sha Tin · 2024-12-18 · 11:20

Race 1

Class 5 1200m 12 runners

Race 1 at Sha Tin on 2024-12-18 was Class 5 over 1200m. EXCELLENT DADDY, ridden by L Ferraris and trained by T P Yung, won by SH, with CHEER FOR SOUTH second and SONIC BOOM third. The 5.2 favourite SONIC BOOM finished 3rd.

Result

Official · 1.09.80
Pos No. Horse Draw Odds Margin
1 9 EXCELLENT DADDY CP/TT 1.09.80 ▶ Replay (opens in new tab) L Ferraris · T P Yung 12 13.0 SH
2 11 CHEER FOR SOUTH PC M F Poon · F C Lor 2 6.1 SH
3 4 SONIC BOOM TT M Chadwick · W K Mo 4 5.2 N
3 10 DIAMOND SOARS B/TT E C W Wong · P F Yiu 1 6.6 N
5 8 FALCON COURT B2/TT B Thompson · D A Hayes 11 13.0 3/4
6 3 SPEEDY FORTUNE B-/XB-/TT J McDonald · D Eustace 10 8.0 1
7 2 SILVER DESTINY B-/TT H Bowman · C H Yip 8 6.0 4
8 6 WOODFIRE CHAMP CP/TT M L Yeung · C W Chang 5 14.0 4-1/2
9 12 GOODMANSHIP B/TT A Pouchin · D J Whyte 9 51.0 4-3/4
10 7 SUPER GLORY PC/TT C Y Ho · P C Ng 3 7.4 5
11 1 DOUBLE BINGO B- Y L Chung · Y S Tsui 7 40.0 6-1/2
12 5 FANCY STAR P-/B1/TT K C Leung · C Fownes 6 63.0 9

Race shape

Beaten lengths
1. EXCELLENT DADDY2. CHEER FOR SOUTH+0.1L3. SONIC BOOM+0.05L3. DIAMOND SOARS+0.05L5. FALCON COURT+0.75L6. SPEEDY FORTUNE+1L7. SILVER DESTINY+4L8. WOODFIRE CHAMP+4.5L9. GOODMANSHIP+4.75L10. SUPER GLORY+5L

Model ratings

Backtest · wf-2024-25
The model's top pick SONIC BOOM (20.2%) finished 3rd — the winner EXCELLENT DADDY was rated #9. Out-of-sample backtest: this board was produced by a model trained only on seasons before this race — it never saw this result.
Rank No. Horse Win % Rated price Pos
1 4 SONIC BOOM 20.2% 4.96 3
2 10 DIAMOND SOARS 13.7% 7.29 3
3 2 SILVER DESTINY 13.0% 7.70 7
4 6 WOODFIRE CHAMP 12.5% 8.03 8
5 3 SPEEDY FORTUNE 7.8% 12.77 6
6 11 CHEER FOR SOUTH 7.8% 12.80 2
7 7 SUPER GLORY 6.6% 15.10 10
8 5 FANCY STAR 5.6% 17.83 12
9 9 EXCELLENT DADDY 5.4% 18.42 1
10 8 FALCON COURT 3.0% 32.88 5
11 12 GOODMANSHIP 2.3% 43.84 9
12 1 DOUBLE BINGO 2.0% 48.79 11
SONIC BOOMDIAMOND SOARSSILVER DESTINYWOODFIRE CHAMPSPEEDY FORTUNECHEER FOR SOUTHSUPER GLORYFANCY STAREXCELLENT DADDY — wonFALCON COURTGOODMANSHIPDOUBLE BINGO

Model vs market

Each dot is a runner: model probability across, market-implied probability up. Dots on the dashed line mean the two agreed; the gold ring is the actual winner.

Ratings are statistical estimates for analysis, not betting advice — the backtest shows no profitable edge against the Hong Kong win market. How the model works →

Dividends

Per $10 unit

WIN

9 133

PLACE

4 10.1

9 30.5

10 13.5

11 23.5

QUINELLA

9,11 417

QUINELLA PLACE

4,9 30.5

4,10 26.5

4,11 23.5

9,10 66

9,11 137

10,11 31.5

FORECAST

9,11 957

TIERCE

9,11,4 2,440

9,11,10 3,450

TRIO

4,9,11 325

9,10,11 518

FIRST 4

4,9,10,11 994

QUARTET

9,11,4,10 15,135

9,11,10,4 16,278