Sha Tin · 2024-12-18 · 12:25
Race 3
Race 3 at Sha Tin on 2024-12-18 was Class 4 over 1200m. DRAGON AIR FORCE, ridden by M Chadwick and trained by P F Yiu, won by 1/2, with FORTUNE WARRIOR second and NEBRASKAN third. Victory came as the 3.2 favourite.
Result
| Pos | No. | Horse | Jockey | Trainer | Draw | Odds | Margin |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 7 | DRAGON AIR FORCE XB-/TT 1.08.76 ▶ Replay (opens in new tab) M Chadwick · P F Yiu | M Chadwick | P F Yiu | 6 | 3.2 | 1/2 |
| 2 | 8 | FORTUNE WARRIOR H/XB/P1/TT A Badel · D Eustace | A Badel | D Eustace | 12 | 21.0 | 1/2 |
| 3 | 2 | NEBRASKAN PC J McDonald · J Size | J McDonald | J Size | 11 | 6.2 | 2-3/4 |
| 4 | 5 | ROBOT KNIGHT TT P N Wong · P C Ng | P N Wong | P C Ng | 9 | 4.5 | 3-1/2 |
| 5 | 6 | NEW POWER B/H M L Yeung · C W Chang | M L Yeung | C W Chang | 4 | 13.0 | 3-3/4 |
| 6 | 1 | MARK THE MOMENT V/TT C Y Ho · Y S Tsui | C Y Ho | Y S Tsui | 3 | 9.9 | 4 |
| 7 | 11 | HINOKAMI KAGURA B-/TT H Bentley · J Richards | H Bentley | J Richards | 8 | 8.9 | 5-1/2 |
| 8 | 4 | JUDY'S GREAT TT C L Chau · C S Shum | C L Chau | C S Shum | 7 | 17.0 | 7 |
| 9 | 12 | DAY DAY VICTORY B-/V1 B Thompson · T P Yung | B Thompson | T P Yung | 10 | 49.0 | 7 |
| 10 | 9 | RACINGRACE XB L Ferraris · D J Hall | L Ferraris | D J Hall | 5 | 12.0 | 7-1/4 |
| 11 | 3 | MACANESE MASTER P1 A Pouchin · C H Yip | A Pouchin | C H Yip | 1 | 62.0 | 13-1/2 |
| 12 | 10 | ROMANTIC NOVELIST XB/P1/TT B Avdulla · D J Whyte | B Avdulla | D J Whyte | 2 | 80.0 | 20-1/4 |
Race shape
Model ratings
| Rank | No. | Horse | Win % | Rated price | Pos |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 2 | NEBRASKAN | 19.5% | 5.12 | 3 |
| 2 | 1 | MARK THE MOMENT | 14.7% | 6.78 | 6 |
| 3 | 7 | DRAGON AIR FORCE | 14.2% | 7.06 | 1 |
| 4 | 5 | ROBOT KNIGHT | 13.6% | 7.37 | 4 |
| 5 | 11 | HINOKAMI KAGURA | 12.5% | 8.02 | 7 |
| 6 | 6 | NEW POWER | 8.2% | 12.19 | 5 |
| 7 | 9 | RACINGRACE | 5.5% | 18.32 | 10 |
| 8 | 8 | FORTUNE WARRIOR | 4.2% | 24.06 | 2 |
| 9 | 4 | JUDY'S GREAT | 3.4% | 29.32 | 8 |
| 10 | 10 | ROMANTIC NOVELIST | 2.0% | 50.78 | 12 |
| 11 | 3 | MACANESE MASTER | 1.3% | 78.98 | 11 |
| 12 | 12 | DAY DAY VICTORY | 1.1% | 94.79 | 9 |
Model vs market
Each dot is a runner: model probability across, market-implied probability up. Dots on the dashed line mean the two agreed; the gold ring is the actual winner.
Ratings are statistical estimates for analysis, not betting advice — the backtest shows no profitable edge against the Hong Kong win market. How the model works →
Dividends
WIN
7 32
PLACE
2 21.5
7 14
8 54
QUINELLA
7,8 314.5
QUINELLA PLACE
2,7 39.5
2,8 192.5
7,8 106.5
FORECAST
7,8 425
TIERCE
7,8,2 3,092
TRIO
2,7,8 575
FIRST 4
2,5,7,8 556
QUARTET
7,8,2,5 12,783
All pools (1 more)
2ND DOUBLE
10/7 149.5
10/8 349