跑馬地 · 2025-12-17 · 11:45
第 3場
2025-12-17跑馬地第3場，Class 4，途程1200米。由J McDonald策騎、W Y So訓練的PERFECTDAY勝出。FLOW WATER FLOW獲得亞軍；THOUSAND CUPS獲得季軍。2.3倍大熱門FLOW WATER FLOW跑獲第2名。
賽果
| 名次 | No. | 馬名 | 騎師 | 練馬師 | 檔位 | 獨贏賠率 | 馬距 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 1 | PERFECTDAY 1:10.28 ▶ 重播 （在新分頁開啟） J McDonald · W Y So | J McDonald | W Y So | 12 | 13.0 | — |
| 2 | 4 | FLOW WATER FLOW H Bowman · J Size | H Bowman | J Size | 4 | 2.3 | 3/4 |
| 3 | 12 | THOUSAND CUPS Y L Chung · A S Cruz | Y L Chung | A S Cruz | 5 | 31.0 | 1-1/4 |
| 4 | 9 | PERIDOT M F Poon · D J Hall | M F Poon | D J Hall | 2 | 10.0 | 1-1/2 |
| 5 | 10 | LUCKY MAN B Avdulla · D A Hayes | B Avdulla | D A Hayes | 9 | 7.1 | 1-1/2 |
| 6 | 3 | THE HEIR J Orman · C Fownes | J Orman | C Fownes | 11 | 9.2 | 1-3/4 |
| 7 | 6 | DENFIELD H Doyle · C S Shum | H Doyle | C S Shum | 3 | 7.2 | 2-1/2 |
| 8 | 2 | FRANCIS MEYNELL A Atzeni · D Eustace | A Atzeni | D Eustace | 1 | 33.0 | 3-3/4 |
| 9 | 8 | HAPPY ALLIANCE C Y Ho · K W Lui | C Y Ho | K W Lui | 6 | 24.0 | 4-3/4 |
| 10 | 11 | ONE AND ONLY M Chadwick · W K Mo | M Chadwick | W K Mo | 10 | 19.0 | 4-3/4 |
| 11 | 7 | GOLDEN DARCI L Hewitson · D J Whyte | L Hewitson | D J Whyte | 7 | 45.0 | 6-1/4 |
| 12 | 5 | SMART FIGHTER K C Leung · P F Yiu | K C Leung | P F Yiu | 8 | 19.0 | 8-1/2 |
賽果形勢
模型評分
| 排名 | No. | 馬名 | 勝出概率 | 評估賠率 | 名次 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 4 | FLOW WATER FLOW | 27.4% | 3.64 | 2 |
| 2 | 6 | DENFIELD | 20.5% | 4.89 | 7 |
| 3 | 9 | PERIDOT | 12.7% | 7.90 | 4 |
| 4 | 1 | PERFECTDAY | 10.5% | 9.50 | 1 |
| 5 | 10 | LUCKY MAN | 6.9% | 14.58 | 5 |
| 6 | 3 | THE HEIR | 4.8% | 20.75 | 6 |
| 7 | 5 | SMART FIGHTER | 4.1% | 24.28 | 12 |
| 8 | 2 | FRANCIS MEYNELL | 3.3% | 30.01 | 8 |
| 9 | 7 | GOLDEN DARCI | 3.2% | 31.44 | 11 |
| 10 | 12 | THOUSAND CUPS | 2.5% | 39.26 | 3 |
| 11 | 8 | HAPPY ALLIANCE | 2.2% | 46.30 | 9 |
| 12 | 11 | ONE AND ONLY | 1.9% | 52.65 | 10 |
模型對市場
每點代表一匹馬：橫軸為模型概率，縱軸為市場隱含概率。點落在虛線上代表兩者一致；金圈為實際頭馬。
評分僅為統計分析估算，並非投注建議——回測顯示模型對香港獨贏市場並無盈利優勢。 模型原理 →
派彩
WIN
1 135
PLACE
1 40.5
4 13.5
12 89.5
QUINELLA
1,4 211.5
QUINELLA PLACE
1,4 81.5
1,12 725
4,12 199
FORECAST
1,4 492
TIERCE
1,4,12 10,931
TRIO
1,4,12 1,734
FIRST 4
1,4,9,12 2,202
QUARTET
1,4,12,9 72,865
全部彩池（另 2 項）
1ST DOUBLE TRIO
1,3,12/1,4,12 482,339
2ND DOUBLE
12/1 4,493.5
12/4 106.5