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Sha Tin · 2019-09-21

Race 3

Class 4 GOOD TO FIRM 1400m Course A 14 runners

Race 3 at Sha Tin on 2019-09-21 was Class 4 over 1400m, run on GOOD TO FIRM going. FUN TIMES, ridden by K Teetan and trained by A T Millard, won by 1-1/4, with RELENTLESS ME second and MR MAGELLAN third. The winner closed strongly from off the pace. The 3.1 favourite RELENTLESS ME finished 2nd.

Result

Official · 1.21.54
Pos No. Horse Draw Odds Margin
1 13 FUN TIMES Closed strongly B 1.21.54 ▶ Replay (opens in new tab) K Teetan · A T Millard 8 11.0 1-1/4
2 7 RELENTLESS ME XB1/B2 J Moreira · D J Whyte 4 3.1 1-1/4
3 14 MR MAGELLAN Closed strongly G van Niekerk · Y S Tsui 2 4.3 2-1/2
4 9 VILLA FIONN Closed strongly B M Chadwick · P F Yiu 14 20.0 2-3/4
5 3 SEVENTY SEVENTY Closed strongly Z Purton · D J Hall 9 6.5 3-1/2
6 12 LOTUS BREEZE Closed strongly B/XB/TT C Schofield · W Y So 11 11.0 3-3/4
7 11 GOLDEN FOUR Closed strongly B U Rispoli · C W Chang 3 17.0 4
8 2 SHOUSON B N Callan · J Moore 5 14.0 8
9 4 FORTUNATE RUNNER Closed strongly CP/TT C Y Ho · K W Lui 13 12.0 8-1/4
10 1 AMAZING CHOCOLATE Closed strongly B/H A Sanna · R Gibson 6 50.0 9
11 8 PHENOMENAL Led early B/H/TT H N Wong · K H Ting 7 306.0 10-1/2
12 6 PARTY EVERYDAY TT1 K C Leung · A S Cruz 10 28.0 11-1/2
13 10 SUPERB AGILITY Closed strongly H H T Mo · L Ho 12 207.0 14
14 5 LUCKY WINDRIDER R Bayliss · C Fownes 1 82.0 26

Race shape

Beaten lengths
1. FUN TIMES—2. RELENTLESS ME+1.25L3. MR MAGELLAN+2.5L4. VILLA FIONN+2.75L5. SEVENTY SEVENTY+3.5L6. LOTUS BREEZE+3.75L7. GOLDEN FOUR+4L8. SHOUSON+8L9. FORTUNATE RUNNER+8.25L10. AMAZING CHOCOLATE+9L

Model ratings

Backtest · wf-2019-20
The model's top pick RELENTLESS ME (22.5%) finished 2nd — the winner FUN TIMES was rated #4. Out-of-sample backtest: this board was produced by a model trained only on seasons before this race — it never saw this result.
Rank No. Horse Win % Rated price Pos
1 7 RELENTLESS ME 22.5% 4.45 2
2 14 MR MAGELLAN 10.4% 9.57 3
3 3 SEVENTY SEVENTY 10.3% 9.75 5
4 13 FUN TIMES 9.9% 10.11 1
5 4 FORTUNATE RUNNER 9.5% 10.49 9
6 2 SHOUSON 8.2% 12.24 8
7 11 GOLDEN FOUR 6.9% 14.42 7
8 9 VILLA FIONN 5.8% 17.26 4
9 12 LOTUS BREEZE 5.7% 17.45 6
10 6 PARTY EVERYDAY 3.0% 33.30 12
11 5 LUCKY WINDRIDER 2.8% 35.19 14
12 1 AMAZING CHOCOLATE 2.7% 36.95 10
13 10 SUPERB AGILITY 1.7% 60.46 13
14 8 PHENOMENAL 0.6% 175.57 11
RELENTLESS MEMR MAGELLANSEVENTY SEVENTYFUN TIMES — wonFORTUNATE RUNNERSHOUSONGOLDEN FOURVILLA FIONNLOTUS BREEZEPARTY EVERYDAYLUCKY WINDRIDERAMAZING CHOCOLATESUPERB AGILITYPHENOMENAL

Model vs market

Each dot is a runner: model probability across, market-implied probability up. Dots on the dashed line mean the two agreed; the gold ring is the actual winner.

Ratings are statistical estimates for analysis, not betting advice — the backtest shows no profitable edge against the Hong Kong win market. How the model works →

Dividends

Per $10 unit

WIN

13 111

PLACE

7 15.5

13 31

14 15.5

QUINELLA

7,13 156.5

QUINELLA PLACE

7,13 59

7,14 35

13,14 80.5

TIERCE

13,7,14 1,689

TRIO

7,13,14 198

FIRST 4

7,9,13,14 572

QUARTET

13,7,14,9 20,594

2ND DOUBLE

2/7 24

2/13 562.5

All pools (1 more)

3 PICK 1

A3 26

A1 —

A2 —

← Race 2 Race 4 → This meeting Draw bias · Sha Tin 1400m Need this as data? Full results archive from $99