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Sha Tin · 2019-09-21

Race 6

Class 3 GOOD TO FIRM 1000m Course A 13 runners

Race 6 at Sha Tin on 2019-09-21 was Class 3 over 1000m, run on GOOD TO FIRM going. MASSIVE POCKET, ridden by C Y Ho and trained by K W Lui, won by 1-1/4, with GOKO second and STAR LUCK third. The 3.3 favourite WINNING METHOD finished 7th.

Result

Official · 0.56.53
Pos No. Horse Draw Odds Margin
1 12 MASSIVE POCKET XB 0.56.53 ▶ Replay (opens in new tab) C Y Ho · K W Lui 9 10.0 1-1/4
2 7 GOKO B/TT H T Mo · C H Yip 13 12.0 1-1/4
3 6 STAR LUCK K H Chan · F C Lor 7 37.0 1-1/4
4 13 VALIANT DREAM H N Wong · K W Lui 2 4.0 2
5 1 MR LUMIERES Z Purton · D J Hall 8 6.5 3
6 8 PERFECT PAIR C Schofield · W Y So 3 27.0 4-1/4
7 3 WINNING METHOD TT J Moreira · C S Shum 12 3.3 4-1/2
8 4 ARDENODE TT A Sanna · W Y So 10 206.0 4-3/4
9 9 KA YING MASTER TT M L Yeung · T P Yung 1 6.0 5-1/4
10 5 E MASTER V/XB U Rispoli · C Fownes 5 12.0 9-1/4
11 14 SPACE B T H So · Y S Tsui 11 255.0 10-1/4
12 10 GREAT SMART B H W Lai · L Ho 6 377.0 15-1/4
13 2 OOGA CHAKA CP1/H1/TT1 K C Leung · K H Ting 4 116.0 16-1/4
11 HAIR TRIGGER M Chadwick · J Moore

Race shape

Beaten lengths
1. MASSIVE POCKET2. GOKO+1.25L3. STAR LUCK+1.25L4. VALIANT DREAM+2L5. MR LUMIERES+3L6. PERFECT PAIR+4.25L7. WINNING METHOD+4.5L8. ARDENODE+4.75L9. KA YING MASTER+5.25L10. E MASTER+9.25L

Model ratings

Backtest · wf-2019-20
The model's top pick WINNING METHOD (22.2%) finished 7th — the winner MASSIVE POCKET was rated #9. Out-of-sample backtest: this board was produced by a model trained only on seasons before this race — it never saw this result.
Rank No. Horse Win % Rated price Pos
1 3 WINNING METHOD 22.2% 4.51 7
2 13 VALIANT DREAM 16.7% 5.98 4
3 9 KA YING MASTER 14.4% 6.93 9
4 1 MR LUMIERES 10.9% 9.15 5
5 8 PERFECT PAIR 10.8% 9.28 6
6 6 STAR LUCK 6.5% 15.39 3
7 5 E MASTER 5.9% 16.91 10
8 7 GOKO 4.5% 22.10 2
9 12 MASSIVE POCKET 3.3% 30.35 1
10 2 OOGA CHAKA 3.2% 31.23 13
11 4 ARDENODE 0.5% 188.76 8
12 10 GREAT SMART 0.5% 195.36 12
13 14 SPACE 0.5% 203.59 11
WINNING METHODVALIANT DREAMKA YING MASTERMR LUMIERESPERFECT PAIRSTAR LUCKE MASTERGOKOMASSIVE POCKET — wonOOGA CHAKAARDENODEGREAT SMARTSPACE

Model vs market

Each dot is a runner: model probability across, market-implied probability up. Dots on the dashed line mean the two agreed; the gold ring is the actual winner.

Ratings are statistical estimates for analysis, not betting advice — the backtest shows no profitable edge against the Hong Kong win market. How the model works →

Dividends

Per $10 unit

WIN

12 103.5

PLACE

6 80.5

7 32.5

12 28.5

QUINELLA

7,12 526.5

QUINELLA PLACE

6,7 359.5

6,12 367

7,12 124

TIERCE

12,7,6 20,179

TRIO

6,7,12 3,805

FIRST 4

6,7,12,13 2,117

QUARTET

12,7,6,13 64,921

3 PICK 1

A3 38

A2

A1

All pools (2 more)

5TH DOUBLE

12/7 201.5

12/12 2,136.5

TRIPLE TRIO (CONSOLATION)

2,5,12/1,2,12/Any Combination 4,568