Sha Tin · 2019-09-21

Race 8

Class 3 GOOD TO FIRM 1600m Course A 14 runners

Race 8 at Sha Tin on 2019-09-21 was Class 3 over 1600m, run on GOOD TO FIRM going. MORE THAN THIS, ridden by K Teetan and trained by K W Lui, won by 1-1/4, with BEAUTY DAY second and ASSIMILATE third. The winner closed strongly from off the pace. The 2.8 favourite WORLD FAMOUS finished 6th.

Result

Official · 1.33.31

Pos	No.	Horse	Jockey	Trainer	Draw	Weight	Odds	Margin
1	2	MORE THAN THIS Closed strongly 1.33.31 ▶ Replay (opens in new tab) K Teetan · K W Lui	K Teetan	K W Lui	5	133 lb	9.6	1-1/4
2	13	BEAUTY DAY B/H H N Wong · T P Yung	H N Wong	T P Yung	10	117 lb	9.3	1-1/4
3	5	ASSIMILATE Closed strongly B/H/TT U Rispoli · K H Ting	U Rispoli	K H Ting	4	132 lb	5.8	1-3/4
4	6	VINCY Closed strongly B/TT M F Poon · F C Lor	M F Poon	F C Lor	7	128 lb	6.5	3-1/2
5	3	WINNING DELIGHT Closed strongly Z Purton · C Fownes	Z Purton	C Fownes	12	133 lb	7.4	3-1/2
6	10	WORLD FAMOUS CP/H/TT J Moreira · A S Cruz	J Moreira	A S Cruz	1	127 lb	2.8	4
7	7	JIMMU Closed strongly B K C Leung · Y S Tsui	K C Leung	Y S Tsui	13	130 lb	243.0	6-1/2
8	11	BETHANY TT H W Lai · C S Shum	H W Lai	C S Shum	6	126 lb	110.0	7
9	8	MAGNIFICENT Led early H T Mo · L Ho	H T Mo	L Ho	9	126 lb	47.0	7-1/2
10	9	UNICRON JEWELLERY B R Bayliss · J Size	R Bayliss	J Size	2	128 lb	35.0	7-3/4
11	12	RED ELYSEES B C Y Ho · K L Man	C Y Ho	K L Man	14	122 lb	11.0	7-3/4
12	1	GIANT TURTLE SR/TT K H Chan · A T Millard	K H Chan	A T Millard	3	123 lb	44.0	10-3/4
13	14	GENERAL DINO B A Sanna · D E Ferraris	A Sanna	D E Ferraris	11	120 lb	195.0	16-1/4
14	4	ARCATRAZ CP1/XB1 G van Niekerk · J Moore	G van Niekerk	J Moore	8	132 lb	70.0	26-1/2

Race shape

Beaten lengths

Model ratings

Backtest · wf-2019-20

The model's top pick WORLD FAMOUS (26.8%) finished 6th — the winner MORE THAN THIS was rated #4. Out-of-sample backtest: this board was produced by a model trained only on seasons before this race — it never saw this result.

Rank	No.	Horse	Win %	Rated price	Pos	Final odds
1	10	WORLD FAMOUS	26.8%	3.73	6	2.8
2	3	WINNING DELIGHT	20.2%	4.96	5	7.4
3	5	ASSIMILATE	9.2%	10.84	3	5.8
4	2	MORE THAN THIS	8.8%	11.38	1	9.6
5	6	VINCY	8.2%	12.25	4	6.5
6	13	BEAUTY DAY	5.3%	18.83	2	9.3
7	4	ARCATRAZ	5.1%	19.50	14	70.0
8	12	RED ELYSEES	3.9%	25.95	11	11.0
9	1	GIANT TURTLE	3.6%	28.08	12	44.0
10	14	GENERAL DINO	2.5%	40.30	13	195.0
11	9	UNICRON JEWELLERY	2.3%	44.26	10	35.0
12	8	MAGNIFICENT	2.1%	48.48	9	47.0
13	11	BETHANY	1.6%	62.89	8	110.0
14	7	JIMMU	0.6%	173.35	7	243.0

Model vs market

Each dot is a runner: model probability across, market-implied probability up. Dots on the dashed line mean the two agreed; the gold ring is the actual winner.

Ratings are statistical estimates for analysis, not betting advice — the backtest shows no profitable edge against the Hong Kong win market. How the model works →

Dividends

Per $10 unit

WIN

2 96.5

PLACE

2 31

5 20.5

13 26

QUINELLA

2,13 308.5

QUINELLA PLACE

2,5 89

2,13 127.5

5,13 92.5

TIERCE

2,13,5 4,025

TRIO

2,5,13 798

FIRST 4

2,5,6,13 980

QUARTET

2,13,5,6 32,217

3 PICK 1

A1 —

A3 33.5

A2 —

All pools (1 more)

7TH DOUBLE

5/2 1,160

5/13 203.5

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