沙田 · 2019-09-21
第 8場
2019-09-21沙田第8場，Class 3，途程1600米，跑道評為GOOD TO FIRM。由K Teetan策騎、K W Lui訓練的MORE THAN THIS勝出，贏出1-1/4。BEAUTY DAY獲得亞軍；ASSIMILATE獲得季軍。頭馬後上力強。2.8倍大熱門WORLD FAMOUS跑獲第6名。
賽果
| 名次 | No. | 馬名 | 騎師 | 練馬師 | 檔位 | 獨贏賠率 | 馬距 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 2 | MORE THAN THIS 後段發力 1.33.31 ▶ 重播 （在新分頁開啟） K Teetan · K W Lui | K Teetan | K W Lui | 5 | 9.6 | 1-1/4 |
| 2 | 13 | BEAUTY DAY B/H H N Wong · T P Yung | H N Wong | T P Yung | 10 | 9.3 | 1-1/4 |
| 3 | 5 | ASSIMILATE 後段發力 B/H/TT U Rispoli · K H Ting | U Rispoli | K H Ting | 4 | 5.8 | 1-3/4 |
| 4 | 6 | VINCY 後段發力 B/TT M F Poon · F C Lor | M F Poon | F C Lor | 7 | 6.5 | 3-1/2 |
| 5 | 3 | WINNING DELIGHT 後段發力 Z Purton · C Fownes | Z Purton | C Fownes | 12 | 7.4 | 3-1/2 |
| 6 | 10 | WORLD FAMOUS CP/H/TT J Moreira · A S Cruz | J Moreira | A S Cruz | 1 | 2.8 | 4 |
| 7 | 7 | JIMMU 後段發力 B K C Leung · Y S Tsui | K C Leung | Y S Tsui | 13 | 243.0 | 6-1/2 |
| 8 | 11 | BETHANY TT H W Lai · C S Shum | H W Lai | C S Shum | 6 | 110.0 | 7 |
| 9 | 8 | MAGNIFICENT 早段領放 H T Mo · L Ho | H T Mo | L Ho | 9 | 47.0 | 7-1/2 |
| 10 | 9 | UNICRON JEWELLERY B R Bayliss · J Size | R Bayliss | J Size | 2 | 35.0 | 7-3/4 |
| 11 | 12 | RED ELYSEES B C Y Ho · K L Man | C Y Ho | K L Man | 14 | 11.0 | 7-3/4 |
| 12 | 1 | GIANT TURTLE SR/TT K H Chan · A T Millard | K H Chan | A T Millard | 3 | 44.0 | 10-3/4 |
| 13 | 14 | GENERAL DINO B A Sanna · D E Ferraris | A Sanna | D E Ferraris | 11 | 195.0 | 16-1/4 |
| 14 | 4 | ARCATRAZ CP1/XB1 G van Niekerk · J Moore | G van Niekerk | J Moore | 8 | 70.0 | 26-1/2 |
賽果形勢
模型評分
| 排名 | No. | 馬名 | 勝出概率 | 評估賠率 | 名次 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 10 | WORLD FAMOUS | 26.8% | 3.73 | 6 |
| 2 | 3 | WINNING DELIGHT | 20.2% | 4.96 | 5 |
| 3 | 5 | ASSIMILATE | 9.2% | 10.84 | 3 |
| 4 | 2 | MORE THAN THIS | 8.8% | 11.38 | 1 |
| 5 | 6 | VINCY | 8.2% | 12.25 | 4 |
| 6 | 13 | BEAUTY DAY | 5.3% | 18.83 | 2 |
| 7 | 4 | ARCATRAZ | 5.1% | 19.50 | 14 |
| 8 | 12 | RED ELYSEES | 3.9% | 25.95 | 11 |
| 9 | 1 | GIANT TURTLE | 3.6% | 28.08 | 12 |
| 10 | 14 | GENERAL DINO | 2.5% | 40.30 | 13 |
| 11 | 9 | UNICRON JEWELLERY | 2.3% | 44.26 | 10 |
| 12 | 8 | MAGNIFICENT | 2.1% | 48.48 | 9 |
| 13 | 11 | BETHANY | 1.6% | 62.89 | 8 |
| 14 | 7 | JIMMU | 0.6% | 173.35 | 7 |
模型對市場
每點代表一匹馬：橫軸為模型概率，縱軸為市場隱含概率。點落在虛線上代表兩者一致；金圈為實際頭馬。
評分僅為統計分析估算，並非投注建議——回測顯示模型對香港獨贏市場並無盈利優勢。 模型原理 →
派彩
WIN
2 96.5
PLACE
2 31
5 20.5
13 26
QUINELLA
2,13 308.5
QUINELLA PLACE
2,5 89
2,13 127.5
5,13 92.5
TIERCE
2,13,5 4,025
TRIO
2,5,13 798
FIRST 4
2,5,6,13 980
QUARTET
2,13,5,6 32,217
3 PICK 1
A1 —
A3 33.5
A2 —
全部彩池（另 1 項）
7TH DOUBLE
5/2 1,160
5/13 203.5