沙田 · 2019-09-21
第 10場
2019-09-21沙田第10場，Class 3，途程1400米，跑道評為GOOD TO FIRM。由K Teetan策騎、A S Cruz訓練的KING OF HEARTS勝出，贏出N。GREAT TREASURE獲得亞軍；CHARIZARD獲得季軍。頭馬後上力強。3.5倍大熱門REGENCY BO BO跑獲第5名。
賽果
| 名次 | No. | 馬名 | 騎師 | 練馬師 | 檔位 | 獨贏賠率 | 馬距 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 4 | KING OF HEARTS 後段發力 B/TT 1.21.27 ▶ 重播 （在新分頁開啟） K Teetan · A S Cruz | K Teetan | A S Cruz | 6 | 12.0 | N |
| 2 | 14 | GREAT TREASURE 後段發力 T H So · Y S Tsui | T H So | Y S Tsui | 7 | 25.0 | N |
| 3 | 5 | CHARIZARD 後段發力 TT U Rispoli · D E Ferraris | U Rispoli | D E Ferraris | 4 | 8.8 | 1/2 |
| 4 | 3 | MY DARLING 早段領放 M Chadwick · T P Yung | M Chadwick | T P Yung | 12 | 13.0 | 1-1/4 |
| 5 | 1 | REGENCY BO BO B/TT Z Purton · C S Shum | Z Purton | C S Shum | 5 | 3.5 | 2-1/4 |
| 6 | 10 | BEAUTY ENERGY 後段發力 B/TT G van Niekerk · J Moore | G van Niekerk | J Moore | 13 | 15.0 | 2-1/4 |
| 7 | 11 | DEFINING MOMENT 後段發力 B R Bayliss · C Fownes | R Bayliss | C Fownes | 10 | 40.0 | 3 |
| 8 | 9 | STAR MAJESTIC B N Callan · P O'Sullivan | N Callan | P O'Sullivan | 1 | 32.0 | 4 |
| 9 | 6 | FENRIR H/TT C Schofield · K H Ting | C Schofield | K H Ting | 11 | 34.0 | 5-1/2 |
| 10 | 13 | FLYING VICTORY H/TT J Moreira · F C Lor | J Moreira | F C Lor | 14 | 13.0 | 5-1/2 |
| 11 | 12 | JOLLY CONVERGENCE 後段發力 CP- K C Leung · R Gibson | K C Leung | R Gibson | 8 | 193.0 | 5-3/4 |
| 12 | 2 | CORDYCEPS B C Y Ho · K W Lui | C Y Ho | K W Lui | 9 | 3.6 | 6-3/4 |
| 13 | 7 | MARZOUQ P H N Wong · J Size | H N Wong | J Size | 3 | 94.0 | 8-1/2 |
| 14 | 8 | PRECIOUSSHIP V-/XB1 M F Poon · P F Yiu | M F Poon | P F Yiu | 2 | 9.3 | 9-1/4 |
賽果形勢
模型評分
| 排名 | No. | 馬名 | 勝出概率 | 評估賠率 | 名次 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 13 | FLYING VICTORY | 18.6% | 5.37 | 10 |
| 2 | 2 | CORDYCEPS | 17.7% | 5.64 | 12 |
| 3 | 1 | REGENCY BO BO | 11.9% | 8.40 | 5 |
| 4 | 11 | DEFINING MOMENT | 8.6% | 11.66 | 7 |
| 5 | 10 | BEAUTY ENERGY | 7.8% | 12.78 | 6 |
| 6 | 5 | CHARIZARD | 7.5% | 13.36 | 3 |
| 7 | 4 | KING OF HEARTS | 6.5% | 15.30 | 1 |
| 8 | 7 | MARZOUQ | 6.1% | 16.36 | 13 |
| 9 | 8 | PRECIOUSSHIP | 4.1% | 24.46 | 14 |
| 10 | 14 | GREAT TREASURE | 3.1% | 32.49 | 2 |
| 11 | 3 | MY DARLING | 2.9% | 34.00 | 4 |
| 12 | 6 | FENRIR | 2.1% | 46.76 | 9 |
| 13 | 9 | STAR MAJESTIC | 2.0% | 51.00 | 8 |
| 14 | 12 | JOLLY CONVERGENCE | 1.0% | 99.85 | 11 |
模型對市場
每點代表一匹馬：橫軸為模型概率，縱軸為市場隱含概率。點落在虛線上代表兩者一致；金圈為實際頭馬。
評分僅為統計分析估算，並非投注建議——回測顯示模型對香港獨贏市場並無盈利優勢。 模型原理 →
派彩
WIN
4 127.5
PLACE
4 47.5
5 25.5
14 51.5
QUINELLA
4,14 1,803.5
QUINELLA PLACE
4,5 171
4,14 483
5,14 199
TIERCE
4,14,5 24,566
TRIO
4,5,14 3,102
FIRST 4
3,4,5,14 7,966
QUARTET
4,14,5,3 236,662
3 PICK 1
A3 —
A1 —
A2 21.5
全部彩池（另 4 項）
3RD DOUBLE TRIO
4,8,9/4,5,14 60,795
9TH DOUBLE
4/4 523.5
4/14 163
SIX UP
2,12/7,12/5,7/2,13/4,9/4,14 127,423
4 [K Teetan] —
TREBLE
2/4/4 3,448
2/4/14 2,053