沙田 · 2019-09-21
第 1場
2019-09-21沙田第1場，Class 5，途程1200米，跑道評為GOOD (AWT)。由H T Mo策騎、C S Shum訓練的BLADE RACER勝出，贏出2。NEVER BETTER獲得亞軍；LET'S COME BACK獲得季軍。3.1倍大熱門YEE CHEONG LUCKY跑獲第9名。
賽果
| 名次 | No. | 馬名 | 騎師 | 練馬師 | 檔位 | 獨贏賠率 | 馬距 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 2 | BLADE RACER XB2/TT2 1.10.17 ▶ 重播 （在新分頁開啟） H T Mo · C S Shum | H T Mo | C S Shum | 12 | 37.0 | 2 |
| 2 | 3 | NEVER BETTER B/TT Z Purton · P O'Sullivan | Z Purton | P O'Sullivan | 2 | 5.8 | 2 |
| 3 | 7 | LET'S COME BACK CP/TT C Schofield · C Fownes | C Schofield | C Fownes | 7 | 15.0 | 2 |
| 4 | 1 | CORRE RAPIDO B K H Chan · R Gibson | K H Chan | R Gibson | 11 | 5.8 | 2-1/2 |
| 5 | 9 | RUN MOOCHI V M F Poon · K L Man | M F Poon | K L Man | 5 | 10.0 | 3-1/4 |
| 6 | 12 | WINNING CIRCLE B-/PC1/TT T H So · C W Chang | T H So | C W Chang | 6 | 99.0 | 4 |
| 7 | 5 | EXPONENTS V C Y Ho · Y S Tsui | C Y Ho | Y S Tsui | 9 | 4.2 | 4-1/4 |
| 8 | 11 | SHINING BRIGHT B/TT K Teetan · C W Chang | K Teetan | C W Chang | 8 | 47.0 | 4-1/2 |
| 9 | 6 | YEE CHEONG LUCKY B-/H-/XB/V1 J Moreira · D J Hall | J Moreira | D J Hall | 3 | 3.1 | 5 |
| 10 | 8 | WHISTLE UP V/XB H W Lai · L Ho | H W Lai | L Ho | 1 | 15.0 | 6-3/4 |
| 11 | 10 | FORTUNE WAY TT1 M L Yeung · T P Yung | M L Yeung | T P Yung | 4 | 47.0 | 13-1/4 |
| 12 | 4 | WINNERS BROTHER B K C Leung · K H Ting | K C Leung | K H Ting | 10 | 135.0 | 23-1/2 |
賽果形勢
模型評分
| 排名 | No. | 馬名 | 勝出概率 | 評估賠率 | 名次 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 6 | YEE CHEONG LUCKY | 26.8% | 3.73 | 9 |
| 2 | 3 | NEVER BETTER | 18.9% | 5.30 | 2 |
| 3 | 5 | EXPONENTS | 12.5% | 7.97 | 7 |
| 4 | 8 | WHISTLE UP | 10.3% | 9.75 | 10 |
| 5 | 7 | LET'S COME BACK | 8.0% | 12.47 | 3 |
| 6 | 1 | CORRE RAPIDO | 6.5% | 15.31 | 4 |
| 7 | 2 | BLADE RACER | 5.4% | 18.56 | 1 |
| 8 | 9 | RUN MOOCHI | 3.7% | 26.68 | 5 |
| 9 | 11 | SHINING BRIGHT | 3.2% | 31.03 | 8 |
| 10 | 10 | FORTUNE WAY | 2.5% | 40.21 | 11 |
| 11 | 12 | WINNING CIRCLE | 1.3% | 79.71 | 6 |
| 12 | 4 | WINNERS BROTHER | 0.8% | 117.88 | 12 |
模型對市場
每點代表一匹馬：橫軸為模型概率，縱軸為市場隱含概率。點落在虛線上代表兩者一致；金圈為實際頭馬。
評分僅為統計分析估算，並非投注建議——回測顯示模型對香港獨贏市場並無盈利優勢。 模型原理 →
派彩
WIN
2 373.5
PLACE
2 88.5
3 17.5
7 41.5
QUINELLA
2,3 1,058.5
QUINELLA PLACE
2,3 285
2,7 714.5
3,7 122.5
TIERCE
2,3,7 42,006
TRIO
2,3,7 4,098
FIRST 4
1,2,3,7 3,948
QUARTET
2,3,7,1 151,941
3 PICK 1
A1 —
A2 —
A3 40.5