沙田 · 2019-09-21
第 4場
2019-09-21沙田第4場，Class 4，途程1200米，跑道評為GOOD (AWT)。由M F Poon策騎、K H Ting訓練的ELITE BOY勝出，贏出1。PRINCE OF GEMS獲得亞軍；STAR SUPERIOR獲得季軍。2.3倍大熱門PRINCE OF GEMS跑獲第2名。
賽果
| 名次 | No. | 馬名 | 騎師 | 練馬師 | 檔位 | 獨贏賠率 | 馬距 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 5 | ELITE BOY B/TT 1.09.34 ▶ 重播 （在新分頁開啟） M F Poon · K H Ting | M F Poon | K H Ting | 4 | 21.0 | 1 |
| 2 | 2 | PRINCE OF GEMS J Moreira · C H Yip | J Moreira | C H Yip | 6 | 2.3 | 1 |
| 3 | 12 | STAR SUPERIOR G van Niekerk · C W Chang | G van Niekerk | C W Chang | 8 | 13.0 | 2-1/4 |
| 4 | 3 | STRATHCLYDE B/TT K Teetan · A T Millard | K Teetan | A T Millard | 5 | 8.7 | 2-1/2 |
| 5 | 1 | CASA DE FORCA C Y Ho · A S Cruz | C Y Ho | A S Cruz | 2 | 5.0 | 3 |
| 6 | 4 | TOUCH OF LUCK PC Z Purton · J Moore | Z Purton | J Moore | 10 | 5.1 | 8-1/2 |
| 7 | 6 | JAZZ STEED B1 C Schofield · C Fownes | C Schofield | C Fownes | 9 | 25.0 | 9 |
| 8 | 11 | JOYFUL CONTENDER CP-/PC1/H2 M Chadwick · R Gibson | M Chadwick | R Gibson | 12 | 44.0 | 11-3/4 |
| 9 | 9 | BOND ELEGANCE P-/B2 A Sanna · D J Whyte | A Sanna | D J Whyte | 11 | 35.0 | 12 |
| 10 | 8 | VERY SWEET ORANGE V H N Wong · Y S Tsui | H N Wong | Y S Tsui | 3 | 25.0 | 13-1/4 |
| 11 | 10 | COBY WIN B/TT H T Mo · C S Shum | H T Mo | C S Shum | 7 | 102.0 | 15-1/4 |
| 12 | 7 | XIANG LAN QI H1/TT1 H W Lai · K L Man | H W Lai | K L Man | 1 | 90.0 | 25-1/4 |
賽果形勢
模型評分
| 排名 | No. | 馬名 | 勝出概率 | 評估賠率 | 名次 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 4 | TOUCH OF LUCK | 26.5% | 3.77 | 6 |
| 2 | 2 | PRINCE OF GEMS | 18.3% | 5.47 | 2 |
| 3 | 8 | VERY SWEET ORANGE | 12.6% | 7.94 | 10 |
| 4 | 1 | CASA DE FORCA | 10.9% | 9.18 | 5 |
| 5 | 5 | ELITE BOY | 7.3% | 13.61 | 1 |
| 6 | 12 | STAR SUPERIOR | 5.3% | 18.74 | 3 |
| 7 | 6 | JAZZ STEED | 5.0% | 20.04 | 7 |
| 8 | 3 | STRATHCLYDE | 4.0% | 24.73 | 4 |
| 9 | 9 | BOND ELEGANCE | 3.7% | 26.74 | 9 |
| 10 | 11 | JOYFUL CONTENDER | 2.7% | 36.58 | 8 |
| 11 | 7 | XIANG LAN QI | 1.9% | 52.18 | 12 |
| 12 | 10 | COBY WIN | 1.6% | 62.38 | 11 |
模型對市場
每點代表一匹馬：橫軸為模型概率，縱軸為市場隱含概率。點落在虛線上代表兩者一致；金圈為實際頭馬。
評分僅為統計分析估算，並非投注建議——回測顯示模型對香港獨贏市場並無盈利優勢。 模型原理 →
派彩
WIN
5 218
PLACE
2 12.5
5 48.5
12 33
QUINELLA
2,5 310.5
QUINELLA PLACE
2,5 103
2,12 55
5,12 315.5
TIERCE
5,2,12 8,063
TRIO
2,5,12 741
FIRST 4
2,3,5,12 1,211
QUARTET
5,2,12,3 39,889
1ST DOUBLE TRIO
7,13,14/2,5,12 16,676
全部彩池（另 2 項）
3 PICK 1
A3 —
A2 28
A1 —
3RD DOUBLE
13/2 65.5
13/5 1,961