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Sha Tin · 2019-09-21

Race 7

Class 2 GOOD TO FIRM 1600m Course A 9 runners

Race 7 at Sha Tin on 2019-09-21 was Class 2 over 1600m, run on GOOD TO FIRM going. KING OPIE, ridden by K Teetan and trained by F C Lor, won by 1/2, with BEAUTY SPIRIT second and STAR PERFORMANCE third. The winner closed strongly from off the pace. The 3.1 favourite HARMONY VICTORY finished 4th.

Result

Official · 1.35.02
Pos No. Horse Draw Odds Margin
1 5 KING OPIE Closed strongly V 1.35.02 ▶ Replay (opens in new tab) K Teetan · F C Lor 2 11.0 1/2
2 7 BEAUTY SPIRIT Led early CP/TT H T Mo · A S Cruz 7 4.5 1/2
3 9 STAR PERFORMANCE Closed strongly H1/TT J Moreira · A S Cruz 8 3.4 1
4 1 HARMONY VICTORY Closed strongly SR/TT G van Niekerk · C S Shum 5 3.1 1
5 2 JOYFUL TRINITY C Y Ho · C Fownes 4 15.0 2-3/4
6 8 MONGOLIAN KING Closed strongly U Rispoli · Y S Tsui 6 10.0 3-1/2
7 3 CLASSIC BEAUTY B M Chadwick · J Moore 1 13.0 4
8 6 NOBLE STEED M L Yeung · K W Lui 9 20.0 4-1/2
9 4 GORGEOUS KING B- A Sanna · P O'Sullivan 3 107.0 5-3/4

Race shape

Beaten lengths
1. KING OPIE2. BEAUTY SPIRIT+0.5L3. STAR PERFORMANCE+1L4. HARMONY VICTORY+1L5. JOYFUL TRINITY+2.75L6. MONGOLIAN KING+3.5L7. CLASSIC BEAUTY+4L8. NOBLE STEED+4.5L9. GORGEOUS KING+5.75L

Model ratings

Backtest · wf-2019-20
The model's top pick CLASSIC BEAUTY (24.3%) finished 7th — the winner KING OPIE was rated #4. Out-of-sample backtest: this board was produced by a model trained only on seasons before this race — it never saw this result.
Rank No. Horse Win % Rated price Pos
1 3 CLASSIC BEAUTY 24.3% 4.12 7
2 9 STAR PERFORMANCE 21.6% 4.63 3
3 1 HARMONY VICTORY 18.8% 5.33 4
4 5 KING OPIE 12.1% 8.26 1
5 7 BEAUTY SPIRIT 8.1% 12.28 2
6 6 NOBLE STEED 5.9% 16.88 8
7 2 JOYFUL TRINITY 4.1% 24.12 5
8 8 MONGOLIAN KING 3.4% 29.84 6
9 4 GORGEOUS KING 1.7% 59.01 9
CLASSIC BEAUTYSTAR PERFORMANCEHARMONY VICTORYKING OPIE — wonBEAUTY SPIRITNOBLE STEEDJOYFUL TRINITYMONGOLIAN KINGGORGEOUS KING

Model vs market

Each dot is a runner: model probability across, market-implied probability up. Dots on the dashed line mean the two agreed; the gold ring is the actual winner.

Ratings are statistical estimates for analysis, not betting advice — the backtest shows no profitable edge against the Hong Kong win market. How the model works →

Dividends

Per $10 unit

WIN

5 112.5

PLACE

5 24

7 13.5

9 18

QUINELLA

5,7 206

QUINELLA PLACE

5,7 58.5

5,9 64

7,9 38.5

TIERCE

5,7,9 1,959

TRIO

5,7,9 249

FIRST 4

1,5,7,9 94

QUARTET

5,7,9,1 4,209

2ND DOUBLE TRIO

6,7,12/5,7,9 306,097

All pools (2 more)

3 PICK 1

A2

A1

A3 46

6TH DOUBLE

12/5 1,171.5

12/7 139