Sha Tin · 2019-10-01
Race 3
Race 3 at Sha Tin on 2019-10-01 was Group 3 over 1000m, run on GOOD TO FIRM going. FULL OF BEAUTY, ridden by J Moreira and trained by J Size, won by N, with JOLLY BANNER second and WISHFUL THINKER third. Victory came as the 2.4 favourite.
Result
| Pos | No. | Horse | Jockey | Trainer | Draw | Odds | Margin |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 5 | FULL OF BEAUTY 0.55.16 ▶ Replay (opens in new tab) J Moreira · J Size | J Moreira | J Size | 1 | 2.4 | N |
| 2 | 6 | JOLLY BANNER B M F Poon · P F Yiu | M F Poon | P F Yiu | 6 | 11.0 | N |
| 3 | 3 | WISHFUL THINKER B B Shinn · R Gibson | B Shinn | R Gibson | 7 | 6.9 | N |
| 4 | 4 | GUNNISON K Teetan · J Size | K Teetan | J Size | 2 | 27.0 | 1-1/2 |
| 5 | 1 | LITTLE GIANT Z Purton · D J Hall | Z Purton | D J Hall | 4 | 3.7 | 1-1/2 |
| 6 | 2 | RATTAN B C Schofield · R Gibson | C Schofield | R Gibson | 3 | 4.8 | 2-1/4 |
| 7 | 7 | SAUL'S SPECIAL B/H G van Niekerk · C W Chang | G van Niekerk | C W Chang | 5 | 16.0 | 3 |
Race shape
Model ratings
| Rank | No. | Horse | Win % | Rated price | Pos |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 5 | FULL OF BEAUTY | 56.2% | 1.78 | 1 |
| 2 | 1 | LITTLE GIANT | 17.0% | 5.89 | 5 |
| 3 | 2 | RATTAN | 6.6% | 15.10 | 6 |
| 4 | 4 | GUNNISON | 6.2% | 16.02 | 4 |
| 5 | 7 | SAUL'S SPECIAL | 5.3% | 18.92 | 7 |
| 6 | 3 | WISHFUL THINKER | 4.8% | 20.76 | 3 |
| 7 | 6 | JOLLY BANNER | 3.8% | 26.17 | 2 |
Model vs market
Each dot is a runner: model probability across, market-implied probability up. Dots on the dashed line mean the two agreed; the gold ring is the actual winner.
Ratings are statistical estimates for analysis, not betting advice — the backtest shows no profitable edge against the Hong Kong win market. How the model works →
Dividends
WIN
5 24.5
PLACE
3 18.5
5 13.5
6 25.5
QUINELLA
5,6 165
QUINELLA PLACE
3,5 36.5
3,6 92.5
5,6 51
TIERCE
5,6,3 1,452
TRIO
3,5,6 286
FIRST 4
3,4,5,6 704
QUARTET
5,6,3,4 9,564
2ND DOUBLE
9/5 109
9/6 134.5
All pools (1 more)
3 PICK 1
A3 —
A2 —
A1 16