Sha Tin · 2019-10-01
Race 6
Race 6 at Sha Tin on 2019-10-01 was Class 3 over 1800m, run on GOOD TO FIRM going. HAPPY SEBRING, ridden by K Teetan and trained by A S Cruz, won by 3/4, with SICHUAN DAR second and I DO third. The winner closed strongly from off the pace. The 3.5 favourite I DO finished 3rd.
Result
| Pos | No. | Horse | Jockey | Trainer | Draw | Odds | Margin |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 8 | HAPPY SEBRING Closed strongly PC-/B2/TT 1.46.75 ▶ Replay (opens in new tab) K Teetan · A S Cruz | K Teetan | A S Cruz | 8 | 4.5 | 3/4 |
| 2 | 3 | SICHUAN DAR Closed strongly B2/TT- A Sanna · A T Millard | A Sanna | A T Millard | 1 | 108.0 | 3/4 |
| 3 | 11 | I DO Closed strongly B/H/TT Z Purton · W Y So | Z Purton | W Y So | 10 | 3.5 | 3/4 |
| 4 | 1 | CHEFANO Closed strongly CP B Shinn · J Moore | B Shinn | J Moore | 14 | 12.0 | 1-3/4 |
| 5 | 10 | SUPER ELEGANCE Closed strongly CP/TT C Schofield · K H Ting | C Schofield | K H Ting | 3 | 7.4 | 2 |
| 6 | 12 | MERRYGOWIN Closed strongly B H N Wong · P O'Sullivan | H N Wong | P O'Sullivan | 11 | 293.0 | 2-3/4 |
| 7 | 4 | SPLENDOUR AND GOLD Closed strongly J Moreira · C H Yip | J Moreira | C H Yip | 6 | 5.1 | 3-1/4 |
| 8 | 2 | CHARITY GO Closed strongly SR G van Niekerk · C S Shum | G van Niekerk | C S Shum | 9 | 14.0 | 3-3/4 |
| 9 | 9 | MARZOUQ P R Bayliss · J Size | R Bayliss | J Size | 4 | 60.0 | 8 |
| 10 | 14 | JOLLY HONOUR B/TT T H So · Y S Tsui | T H So | Y S Tsui | 2 | 48.0 | 9-1/4 |
| 11 | 5 | JADE FORTUNE H-/B K C Leung · K L Man | K C Leung | K L Man | 7 | 132.0 | 9-1/4 |
| 12 | 13 | DRAGON COMMANDER B L Hewitson · D E Ferraris | L Hewitson | D E Ferraris | 5 | 96.0 | 12 |
| 13 | 7 | VIGOR FAME Led early H/XB/TT M F Poon · K W Lui | M F Poon | K W Lui | 12 | 6.8 | 17-1/4 |
| 14 | 6 | PARTY TOGETHER H/SR H W Lai · L Ho | H W Lai | L Ho | 13 | 117.0 | 17-3/4 |
Race shape
Model ratings
| Rank | No. | Horse | Win % | Rated price | Pos |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 4 | SPLENDOUR AND GOLD | 24.7% | 4.04 | 7 |
| 2 | 10 | SUPER ELEGANCE | 16.5% | 6.06 | 5 |
| 3 | 8 | HAPPY SEBRING | 15.6% | 6.41 | 1 |
| 4 | 11 | I DO | 11.3% | 8.88 | 3 |
| 5 | 1 | CHEFANO | 8.6% | 11.66 | 4 |
| 6 | 7 | VIGOR FAME | 6.3% | 15.97 | 13 |
| 7 | 2 | CHARITY GO | 4.5% | 22.38 | 8 |
| 8 | 13 | DRAGON COMMANDER | 2.6% | 38.92 | 12 |
| 9 | 12 | MERRYGOWIN | 2.0% | 48.97 | 6 |
| 10 | 9 | MARZOUQ | 1.9% | 51.92 | 9 |
| 11 | 5 | JADE FORTUNE | 1.9% | 52.58 | 11 |
| 12 | 3 | SICHUAN DAR | 1.9% | 52.69 | 2 |
| 13 | 14 | JOLLY HONOUR | 1.4% | 71.41 | 10 |
| 14 | 6 | PARTY TOGETHER | 0.9% | 114.68 | 14 |
Model vs market
Each dot is a runner: model probability across, market-implied probability up. Dots on the dashed line mean the two agreed; the gold ring is the actual winner.
Ratings are statistical estimates for analysis, not betting advice — the backtest shows no profitable edge against the Hong Kong win market. How the model works →
Dividends
WIN
8 45
PLACE
3 208
8 16
11 16
QUINELLA
3,8 2,247.5
QUINELLA PLACE
3,8 604.5
3,11 498
8,11 37
TIERCE
8,3,11 18,717
TRIO
3,8,11 1,805
FIRST 4
1,3,8,11 5,136
QUARTET
8,3,11,1 149,745
3 PICK 1
A1 —
A2 23.5
A3 —
All pools (3 more)
5TH DOUBLE
5/3 421
5/8 197
TRIPLE TRIO
1,8,14/2,5,8/3,8,11 1,784,049
TRIPLE TRIO (CONSOLATION)
1,8,14/2,5,8/Any Combination 360