Sha Tin · 2019-10-01
Race 9
Race 9 at Sha Tin on 2019-10-01 was Class 3 over 1400m, run on GOOD TO FIRM going. SUPER STAR, ridden by J Moreira and trained by A T Millard, won by 1/2, with INVINCIBLE MISSILE second and ALCARI third. The winner closed strongly from off the pace. Victory came as the 3.0 favourite.
Result
| Pos | No. | Horse | Jockey | Trainer | Draw | Odds | Margin |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 4 | SUPER STAR Closed strongly 1.21.32 ▶ Replay (opens in new tab) J Moreira · A T Millard | J Moreira | A T Millard | 10 | 3.0 | 1/2 |
| 2 | 3 | INVINCIBLE MISSILE Closed strongly B/TT Z Purton · W Y So | Z Purton | W Y So | 8 | 6.0 | 1/2 |
| 3 | 5 | ALCARI Closed strongly B G van Niekerk · P F Yiu | G van Niekerk | P F Yiu | 11 | 13.0 | 1 |
| 4 | 6 | BEAUTY LOYAL Closed strongly B/TT A Domeyer · A S Cruz | A Domeyer | A S Cruz | 12 | 6.8 | 2-1/4 |
| 5 | 2 | COOL TEAM Closed strongly CP B Shinn · P O'Sullivan | B Shinn | P O'Sullivan | 3 | 4.8 | 2-1/4 |
| 6 | 10 | MIGHTY MAVERICK PC/TT M Chadwick · C Fownes | M Chadwick | C Fownes | 6 | 12.0 | 3 |
| 7 | 7 | CLASSIC POSH M F Poon · D J Hall | M F Poon | D J Hall | 2 | 19.0 | 3 |
| 8 | 8 | COMFORT LIFE XB/TT K Teetan · F C Lor | K Teetan | F C Lor | 7 | 47.0 | 5-3/4 |
| 9 | 1 | LOBO'S LEGEND N Callan · D E Ferraris | N Callan | D E Ferraris | 4 | 9.3 | 6-1/4 |
| 10 | 13 | LET'S TAKE IT EASY Closed strongly V-/H K C Leung · L Ho | K C Leung | L Ho | 9 | 196.0 | 7-1/4 |
| 11 | 14 | MARQULA Closed strongly B/TT H N Wong · C W Chang | H N Wong | C W Chang | 14 | 111.0 | 7-1/2 |
| 12 | 12 | WON WON TOO TT H T Mo · C H Yip | H T Mo | C H Yip | 5 | 356.0 | 8-1/4 |
| 13 | 11 | CHEERS VANQUISHER Led early TT H W Lai · C S Shum | H W Lai | C S Shum | 1 | 198.0 | 17-1/2 |
| 14 | 9 | GUVNOR T H So · Y S Tsui | T H So | Y S Tsui | 13 | 349.0 | 103-1/2 |
Race shape
Model ratings
| Rank | No. | Horse | Win % | Rated price | Pos |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 3 | INVINCIBLE MISSILE | 30.6% | 3.27 | 2 |
| 2 | 4 | SUPER STAR | 22.8% | 4.39 | 1 |
| 3 | 6 | BEAUTY LOYAL | 11.1% | 9.02 | 4 |
| 4 | 2 | COOL TEAM | 10.8% | 9.24 | 5 |
| 5 | 10 | MIGHTY MAVERICK | 4.8% | 20.95 | 6 |
| 6 | 8 | COMFORT LIFE | 4.0% | 25.09 | 8 |
| 7 | 1 | LOBO'S LEGEND | 3.9% | 25.71 | 9 |
| 8 | 5 | ALCARI | 3.5% | 28.92 | 3 |
| 9 | 7 | CLASSIC POSH | 3.2% | 31.25 | 7 |
| 10 | 14 | MARQULA | 2.2% | 44.61 | 11 |
| 11 | 12 | WON WON TOO | 1.0% | 97.80 | 12 |
| 12 | 13 | LET'S TAKE IT EASY | 0.9% | 116.39 | 10 |
| 13 | 9 | GUVNOR | 0.7% | 152.96 | 14 |
| 14 | 11 | CHEERS VANQUISHER | 0.6% | 161.72 | 13 |
Model vs market
Each dot is a runner: model probability across, market-implied probability up. Dots on the dashed line mean the two agreed; the gold ring is the actual winner.
Ratings are statistical estimates for analysis, not betting advice — the backtest shows no profitable edge against the Hong Kong win market. How the model works →
Dividends
WIN
4 30
PLACE
3 16.5
4 14.5
5 39
QUINELLA
3,4 73.5
QUINELLA PLACE
3,4 29.5
3,5 128
4,5 68.5
TIERCE
4,3,5 1,350
TRIO
3,4,5 365
FIRST 4
3,4,5,6 503
QUARTET
4,3,5,6 5,931
3 PICK 1
A1 23
A3 —
A2 —
All pools (1 more)
8TH DOUBLE
2/3 14.5
2/4 51.5