Sha Tin · 2019-10-01

Race 8

Class 3 GOOD TO FIRM 1200m Course A+3 14 runners

Race 8 at Sha Tin on 2019-10-01 was Class 3 over 1200m, run on GOOD TO FIRM going. MR CROISSANT, ridden by Z Purton and trained by W Y So, won by N, with JUMBO PRIZE second and NEW ASIA SUNRISE third. Victory came as the 1.8 favourite.

Result

Official · 1.08.34

Pos	No.	Horse	Jockey	Trainer	Draw	Weight	Odds	Margin
1	2	MR CROISSANT CP1 1.08.34 ▶ Replay (opens in new tab) Z Purton · W Y So	Z Purton	W Y So	10	127 lb	1.8	N
2	12	JUMBO PRIZE TT1 H T Mo · C Fownes	H T Mo	C Fownes	2	113 lb	9.8	N
3	6	NEW ASIA SUNRISE A Domeyer · Y S Tsui	A Domeyer	Y S Tsui	5	123 lb	6.1	1-1/2
4	11	GALLANT RETURN M F Poon · D J Hall	M F Poon	D J Hall	4	114 lb	10.0	3
5	9	MONKEY JEWELLERY J Moreira · J Size	J Moreira	J Size	12	119 lb	7.7	3-1/4
6	4	MR ALDAN B/TT K Teetan · A S Cruz	K Teetan	A S Cruz	9	123 lb	59.0	4
7	8	HAPPY VICTORY K C Leung · T P Yung	K C Leung	T P Yung	7	119 lb	79.0	4-1/2
8	5	NAMJONG SINGS TT1 L Hewitson · C S Shum	L Hewitson	C S Shum	14	123 lb	72.0	5-3/4
9	13	LITTLE WISE MAN C Schofield · F C Lor	C Schofield	F C Lor	11	118 lb	34.0	6
10	7	HAPPY LIFELINE G van Niekerk · A T Millard	G van Niekerk	A T Millard	3	122 lb	42.0	6-1/4
11	1	ANONYMA U Rispoli · D E Ferraris	U Rispoli	D E Ferraris	8	133 lb	113.0	7-1/4
12	3	STAR OF YUEN LONG M Chadwick · K L Man	M Chadwick	K L Man	6	125 lb	13.0	7-1/4
13	10	CRUCIATUS H/TT H N Wong · K W Lui	H N Wong	K W Lui	13	115 lb	451.0	9-1/4
14	14	GREAT SMART B H W Lai · L Ho	H W Lai	L Ho	1	114 lb	482.0	18-1/4

Race shape

Beaten lengths

Model ratings

Backtest · wf-2019-20

The model's top pick MONKEY JEWELLERY (27.2%) finished 5th — the winner MR CROISSANT was rated #2. Out-of-sample backtest: this board was produced by a model trained only on seasons before this race — it never saw this result.

Rank	No.	Horse	Win %	Rated price	Pos	Final odds
1	9	MONKEY JEWELLERY	27.2%	3.68	5	7.7
2	2	MR CROISSANT	21.1%	4.75	1	1.8
3	12	JUMBO PRIZE	14.7%	6.78	2	9.8
4	6	NEW ASIA SUNRISE	6.7%	14.93	3	6.1
5	13	LITTLE WISE MAN	5.8%	17.11	9	34.0
6	7	HAPPY LIFELINE	5.5%	18.33	10	42.0
7	11	GALLANT RETURN	4.9%	20.53	4	10.0
8	3	STAR OF YUEN LONG	4.5%	22.09	12	13.0
9	5	NAMJONG SINGS	3.3%	30.03	8	72.0
10	4	MR ALDAN	2.3%	42.91	6	59.0
11	1	ANONYMA	1.9%	52.30	11	113.0
12	8	HAPPY VICTORY	1.1%	90.79	7	79.0
13	14	GREAT SMART	0.5%	198.83	14	482.0
14	10	CRUCIATUS	0.4%	223.42	13	451.0

Model vs market

Each dot is a runner: model probability across, market-implied probability up. Dots on the dashed line mean the two agreed; the gold ring is the actual winner.

Ratings are statistical estimates for analysis, not betting advice — the backtest shows no profitable edge against the Hong Kong win market. How the model works →

Dividends

Per $10 unit

WIN

2 18.5

PLACE

2 11.5

6 17.5

12 27.5

QUINELLA

2,12 90

QUINELLA PLACE

2,6 26

2,12 35

6,12 78

TIERCE

2,12,6 527

TRIO

2,6,12 125

FIRST 4

2,6,11,12 219

QUARTET

2,12,6,11 2,649

3 PICK 1

A2 —

A3 —

A1 14.5

All pools (1 more)

7TH DOUBLE

1/2 24

1/12 43

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