沙田 · 2019-10-01
第 8場
2019-10-01沙田第8場，Class 3，途程1200米，跑道評為GOOD TO FIRM。由Z Purton策騎、W Y So訓練的MR CROISSANT勝出，贏出N。JUMBO PRIZE獲得亞軍；NEW ASIA SUNRISE獲得季軍。頭馬以1.8倍大熱姿態勝出。
賽果
| 名次 | No. | 馬名 | 騎師 | 練馬師 | 檔位 | 獨贏賠率 | 馬距 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 2 | MR CROISSANT CP1 1.08.34 ▶ 重播 （在新分頁開啟） Z Purton · W Y So | Z Purton | W Y So | 10 | 1.8 | N |
| 2 | 12 | JUMBO PRIZE TT1 H T Mo · C Fownes | H T Mo | C Fownes | 2 | 9.8 | N |
| 3 | 6 | NEW ASIA SUNRISE A Domeyer · Y S Tsui | A Domeyer | Y S Tsui | 5 | 6.1 | 1-1/2 |
| 4 | 11 | GALLANT RETURN M F Poon · D J Hall | M F Poon | D J Hall | 4 | 10.0 | 3 |
| 5 | 9 | MONKEY JEWELLERY J Moreira · J Size | J Moreira | J Size | 12 | 7.7 | 3-1/4 |
| 6 | 4 | MR ALDAN B/TT K Teetan · A S Cruz | K Teetan | A S Cruz | 9 | 59.0 | 4 |
| 7 | 8 | HAPPY VICTORY K C Leung · T P Yung | K C Leung | T P Yung | 7 | 79.0 | 4-1/2 |
| 8 | 5 | NAMJONG SINGS TT1 L Hewitson · C S Shum | L Hewitson | C S Shum | 14 | 72.0 | 5-3/4 |
| 9 | 13 | LITTLE WISE MAN C Schofield · F C Lor | C Schofield | F C Lor | 11 | 34.0 | 6 |
| 10 | 7 | HAPPY LIFELINE G van Niekerk · A T Millard | G van Niekerk | A T Millard | 3 | 42.0 | 6-1/4 |
| 11 | 1 | ANONYMA U Rispoli · D E Ferraris | U Rispoli | D E Ferraris | 8 | 113.0 | 7-1/4 |
| 12 | 3 | STAR OF YUEN LONG M Chadwick · K L Man | M Chadwick | K L Man | 6 | 13.0 | 7-1/4 |
| 13 | 10 | CRUCIATUS H/TT H N Wong · K W Lui | H N Wong | K W Lui | 13 | 451.0 | 9-1/4 |
| 14 | 14 | GREAT SMART B H W Lai · L Ho | H W Lai | L Ho | 1 | 482.0 | 18-1/4 |
賽果形勢
模型評分
| 排名 | No. | 馬名 | 勝出概率 | 評估賠率 | 名次 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 9 | MONKEY JEWELLERY | 27.2% | 3.68 | 5 |
| 2 | 2 | MR CROISSANT | 21.1% | 4.75 | 1 |
| 3 | 12 | JUMBO PRIZE | 14.7% | 6.78 | 2 |
| 4 | 6 | NEW ASIA SUNRISE | 6.7% | 14.93 | 3 |
| 5 | 13 | LITTLE WISE MAN | 5.8% | 17.11 | 9 |
| 6 | 7 | HAPPY LIFELINE | 5.5% | 18.33 | 10 |
| 7 | 11 | GALLANT RETURN | 4.9% | 20.53 | 4 |
| 8 | 3 | STAR OF YUEN LONG | 4.5% | 22.09 | 12 |
| 9 | 5 | NAMJONG SINGS | 3.3% | 30.03 | 8 |
| 10 | 4 | MR ALDAN | 2.3% | 42.91 | 6 |
| 11 | 1 | ANONYMA | 1.9% | 52.30 | 11 |
| 12 | 8 | HAPPY VICTORY | 1.1% | 90.79 | 7 |
| 13 | 14 | GREAT SMART | 0.5% | 198.83 | 14 |
| 14 | 10 | CRUCIATUS | 0.4% | 223.42 | 13 |
模型對市場
每點代表一匹馬：橫軸為模型概率，縱軸為市場隱含概率。點落在虛線上代表兩者一致；金圈為實際頭馬。
評分僅為統計分析估算，並非投注建議——回測顯示模型對香港獨贏市場並無盈利優勢。 模型原理 →
派彩
WIN
2 18.5
PLACE
2 11.5
6 17.5
12 27.5
QUINELLA
2,12 90
QUINELLA PLACE
2,6 26
2,12 35
6,12 78
TIERCE
2,12,6 527
TRIO
2,6,12 125
FIRST 4
2,6,11,12 219
QUARTET
2,12,6,11 2,649
3 PICK 1
A2 —
A3 —
A1 14.5
全部彩池（另 1 項）
7TH DOUBLE
1/2 24
1/12 43