沙田 · 2019-10-01
第 5場
2019-10-01沙田第5場，Class 4，途程1400米，跑道評為GOOD TO FIRM。由A Domeyer策騎、A T Millard訓練的EZRA勝出，贏出3-1/4。DESTIN獲得亞軍；BIG FORTUNE獲得季軍。頭馬後上力強。頭馬以3.7倍大熱姿態勝出。
賽果
| 名次 | No. | 馬名 | 騎師 | 練馬師 | 檔位 | 獨贏賠率 | 馬距 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 5 | EZRA 後段發力 B/XB 1.21.52 ▶ 重播 （在新分頁開啟） A Domeyer · A T Millard | A Domeyer | A T Millard | 3 | 3.7 | 3-1/4 |
| 2 | 8 | DESTIN 後段發力 B K Teetan · P O'Sullivan | K Teetan | P O'Sullivan | 6 | 5.1 | 3-1/4 |
| 3 | 2 | BIG FORTUNE 早段領放 B A Sanna · D J Whyte | A Sanna | D J Whyte | 1 | 4.1 | 3-1/4 |
| 4 | 3 | SPEEDY LUCK 後段發力 V-/CP1/TT J Moreira · P F Yiu | J Moreira | P F Yiu | 8 | 5.8 | 3-3/4 |
| 5 | 7 | SEVENTY SEVENTY B Shinn · D J Hall | B Shinn | D J Hall | 4 | 6.7 | 4-1/4 |
| 6 | 1 | AMAZING SATCHMO 後段發力 B H N Wong · D E Ferraris | H N Wong | D E Ferraris | 9 | 26.0 | 4-3/4 |
| 7 | 4 | THE ONE 後段發力 B Z Purton · Y S Tsui | Z Purton | Y S Tsui | 14 | 29.0 | 5 |
| 8 | 9 | OLD HAVANA 後段發力 P R Bayliss · C Fownes | R Bayliss | C Fownes | 10 | 359.0 | 5-1/4 |
| 9 | 11 | WHAT A LEGEND 後段發力 CP/H U Rispoli · K H Ting | U Rispoli | K H Ting | 12 | 37.0 | 5-1/2 |
| 10 | 13 | CALLING THE SHOTS B/TT M F Poon · A S Cruz | M F Poon | A S Cruz | 7 | 26.0 | 5-1/2 |
| 11 | 10 | ALL BEST FRIENDS B H W Lai · K L Man | H W Lai | K L Man | 2 | 94.0 | 7 |
| 12 | 6 | SUPERB AGILITY 後段發力 H H T Mo · L Ho | H T Mo | L Ho | 11 | 219.0 | 14-1/4 |
| 13 | 12 | GALA NIGHT B-/H-/XB1 G van Niekerk · J Moore | G van Niekerk | J Moore | 13 | 37.0 | 14-1/4 |
| 14 | 14 | TOUCHDOWN STRIKER CP-/H1 T H So · W Y So | T H So | W Y So | 5 | 436.0 | 28-3/4 |
| — | 0 | DANEHILL JADE L Hewitson · C S Shum | L Hewitson | C S Shum | — | — | — |
| — | 0 | CITY LEGEND K C Leung · T P Yung | K C Leung | T P Yung | — | — | — |
賽果形勢
模型評分
| 排名 | No. | 馬名 | 勝出概率 | 評估賠率 | 名次 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 3 | SPEEDY LUCK | 20.3% | 4.93 | 4 |
| 2 | 5 | EZRA | 18.4% | 5.45 | 1 |
| 3 | 2 | BIG FORTUNE | 16.0% | 6.26 | 3 |
| 4 | 8 | DESTIN | 15.5% | 6.44 | 2 |
| 5 | 4 | THE ONE | 8.1% | 12.41 | 7 |
| 6 | 7 | SEVENTY SEVENTY | 4.8% | 20.67 | 5 |
| 7 | 11 | WHAT A LEGEND | 3.9% | 25.51 | 9 |
| 8 | 12 | GALA NIGHT | 3.1% | 31.81 | 13 |
| 9 | 13 | CALLING THE SHOTS | 2.9% | 34.79 | 10 |
| 10 | 10 | ALL BEST FRIENDS | 2.7% | 36.49 | 11 |
| 11 | 1 | AMAZING SATCHMO | 2.2% | 44.85 | 6 |
| 12 | 6 | SUPERB AGILITY | 0.8% | 121.54 | 12 |
| 13 | 9 | OLD HAVANA | 0.7% | 149.39 | 8 |
| 14 | 14 | TOUCHDOWN STRIKER | 0.6% | 168.29 | 14 |
模型對市場
每點代表一匹馬：橫軸為模型概率，縱軸為市場隱含概率。點落在虛線上代表兩者一致；金圈為實際頭馬。
評分僅為統計分析估算，並非投注建議——回測顯示模型對香港獨贏市場並無盈利優勢。 模型原理 →
派彩
WIN
5 37
PLACE
2 16.5
5 15
8 16.5
QUINELLA
5,8 101
QUINELLA PLACE
2,5 37.5
2,8 42.5
5,8 38.5
TIERCE
5,8,2 537
TRIO
2,5,8 118
FIRST 4
2,3,5,8 107
QUARTET
5,8,2,3 2,153
3 PICK 1
A3 —
A2 —
A1 19.5
全部彩池（另 1 項）
4TH DOUBLE
1/5 353.5
1/8 106.5