Sha Tin · 2019-10-01
Race 5
Result
| Pos | No. | Horse | Jockey | Trainer | Draw | Odds | Margin |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 0 | EZRA Closed strongly B/XB 1.21.52 ▶ Replay (opens in new tab) A Domeyer · A T Millard | A Domeyer | A T Millard | 3 | 3.7 | 3-1/4 |
| 2 | 0 | DESTIN Closed strongly B K Teetan · P O'Sullivan | K Teetan | P O'Sullivan | 6 | 5.1 | 3-1/4 |
| 3 | 0 | BIG FORTUNE Led early B A Sanna · D J Whyte | A Sanna | D J Whyte | 1 | 4.1 | 3-1/4 |
| 4 | 0 | SPEEDY LUCK Closed strongly V-/CP1/TT J Moreira · P F Yiu | J Moreira | P F Yiu | 8 | 5.8 | 3-3/4 |
| 5 | 0 | SEVENTY SEVENTY B Shinn · D J Hall | B Shinn | D J Hall | 4 | 6.7 | 4-1/4 |
| 6 | 0 | AMAZING SATCHMO Closed strongly B H N Wong · D E Ferraris | H N Wong | D E Ferraris | 9 | 26.0 | 4-3/4 |
| 7 | 0 | THE ONE Closed strongly B Z Purton · Y S Tsui | Z Purton | Y S Tsui | 14 | 29.0 | 5 |
| 8 | 0 | OLD HAVANA Closed strongly P R Bayliss · C Fownes | R Bayliss | C Fownes | 10 | 359.0 | 5-1/4 |
| 9 | 0 | WHAT A LEGEND Closed strongly CP/H U Rispoli · K H Ting | U Rispoli | K H Ting | 12 | 37.0 | 5-1/2 |
| 10 | 0 | CALLING THE SHOTS B/TT M F Poon · A S Cruz | M F Poon | A S Cruz | 7 | 26.0 | 5-1/2 |
| 11 | 0 | ALL BEST FRIENDS B H W Lai · K L Man | H W Lai | K L Man | 2 | 94.0 | 7 |
| 12 | 0 | SUPERB AGILITY Closed strongly H H T Mo · L Ho | H T Mo | L Ho | 11 | 219.0 | 14-1/4 |
| 13 | 0 | GALA NIGHT B-/H-/XB1 G van Niekerk · J Moore | G van Niekerk | J Moore | 13 | 37.0 | 14-1/4 |
| 14 | 0 | TOUCHDOWN STRIKER CP-/H1 T H So · W Y So | T H So | W Y So | 5 | 436.0 | 28-3/4 |
| — | 0 | DANEHILL JADE L Hewitson · C S Shum | L Hewitson | C S Shum | — | — | — |
| — | 0 | CITY LEGEND K C Leung · T P Yung | K C Leung | T P Yung | — | — | — |
This site does not show odds as they change: the odds here are final prices after a race, or overnight prices before it.
Race 5 at Sha Tin on 2019-10-01 was Class 4 over 1400m, run on GOOD TO FIRM going. EZRA, ridden by A Domeyer and trained by A T Millard, won by 3-1/4, with DESTIN second and BIG FORTUNE third. The winner closed strongly from off the pace. Victory came as the 3.7 favourite.
Race shape
Model ratings
| Rank | No. | Horse | Win % | Rated price | Pos |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 0 | SPEEDY LUCK | 20.3% | 4.93 | 4 |
| 2 | 0 | EZRA | 18.4% | 5.45 | 1 |
| 3 | 0 | BIG FORTUNE | 16.0% | 6.26 | 3 |
| 4 | 0 | DESTIN | 15.5% | 6.44 | 2 |
| 5 | 0 | THE ONE | 8.1% | 12.41 | 7 |
| 6 | 0 | SEVENTY SEVENTY | 4.8% | 20.67 | 5 |
| 7 | 0 | WHAT A LEGEND | 3.9% | 25.51 | 9 |
| 8 | 0 | GALA NIGHT | 3.1% | 31.81 | 13 |
| 9 | 0 | CALLING THE SHOTS | 2.9% | 34.79 | 10 |
| 10 | 0 | ALL BEST FRIENDS | 2.7% | 36.49 | 11 |
| 11 | 0 | AMAZING SATCHMO | 2.2% | 44.85 | 6 |
| 12 | 0 | SUPERB AGILITY | 0.8% | 121.54 | 12 |
| 13 | 0 | OLD HAVANA | 0.7% | 149.39 | 8 |
| 14 | 0 | TOUCHDOWN STRIKER | 0.6% | 168.29 | 14 |
Model vs market
Each dot is a runner: model probability across, market-implied probability up. Dots on the dashed line mean the two agreed; the gold ring is the actual winner.
Ratings are statistical estimates for analysis, not betting advice — the backtest shows no profitable edge against the Hong Kong win market. How the model works →
Dividends
WIN
5 37
PLACE
2 16.5
5 15
8 16.5
QUINELLA
5,8 101
QUINELLA PLACE
2,5 37.5
2,8 42.5
5,8 38.5
TIERCE
5,8,2 537
TRIO
2,5,8 118
FIRST 4
2,3,5,8 107
QUARTET
5,8,2,3 2,153
3 PICK 1
A1 19.5
A3 —
A2 —
All pools (1 more)
4TH DOUBLE
1/5 353.5
1/8 106.5