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Sha Tin · 2019-10-01

Race 2

Class 4 GOOD TO FIRM 1200m Course A+3 14 runners

Race 2 at Sha Tin on 2019-10-01 was Class 4 over 1200m, run on GOOD TO FIRM going. QUADRUPLE DOUBLE, ridden by M F Poon and trained by D J Hall, won by 2, with WOOD ON FIRE second and LITTLE THUNDER third. The 2.1 favourite SUPER WINNER finished 10th.

Result

Official · 1.08.85
Pos No. Horse Draw Odds Margin
1 9 QUADRUPLE DOUBLE 1.08.85 ▶ Replay (opens in new tab) M F Poon · D J Hall 10 4.5 2
2 8 WOOD ON FIRE H1 G van Niekerk · L Ho 12 107.0 2
3 10 LITTLE THUNDER A Domeyer · A T Millard 2 8.0 2-1/2
4 2 THE CREATETH B K Teetan · J Moore 13 7.3 2-3/4
5 1 MOMENTUM HAPPY K C Leung · T P Yung 8 13.0 4
6 12 FOODIE PRINCESS TT T H So · W Y So 3 12.0 4-1/4
7 14 BLOOMING SPIRIT V-/TT H N Wong · F C Lor 11 40.0 4-1/2
8 4 PRESIDENT STAR B1/TT1 H W Lai · C S Shum 1 185.0 6-1/2
9 13 FLYING GODSPELL SR U Rispoli · K H Ting 5 52.0 7-1/4
10 6 SUPER WINNER Z Purton · C H Yip 7 2.1 8
11 11 U W BROTHER L Hewitson · Y S Tsui 4 60.0 8
12 3 CLUB SPIRIT N Callan · R Gibson 9 30.0 8-1/2
13 7 TURF BRILLIANT R Bayliss · W Y So 6 419.0 8-1/2
14 5 SOCKET ELITE H T Mo · C H Yip 14 248.0 8-1/2

Race shape

Beaten lengths
1. QUADRUPLE DOUBLE2. WOOD ON FIRE+2L3. LITTLE THUNDER+2.5L4. THE CREATETH+2.75L5. MOMENTUM HAPPY+4L6. FOODIE PRINCESS+4.25L7. BLOOMING SPIRIT+4.5L8. PRESIDENT STAR+6.5L9. FLYING GODSPELL+7.25L10. SUPER WINNER+8L

Model ratings

Backtest · wf-2019-20
The model's top pick THE CREATETH (17.6%) finished 4th — the winner QUADRUPLE DOUBLE was rated #4. Out-of-sample backtest: this board was produced by a model trained only on seasons before this race — it never saw this result.
Rank No. Horse Win % Rated price Pos
1 2 THE CREATETH 17.6% 5.67 4
2 6 SUPER WINNER 16.3% 6.14 10
3 10 LITTLE THUNDER 12.1% 8.29 3
4 9 QUADRUPLE DOUBLE 11.3% 8.83 1
5 1 MOMENTUM HAPPY 8.9% 11.22 5
6 14 BLOOMING SPIRIT 5.2% 19.19 7
7 8 WOOD ON FIRE 5.1% 19.45 2
8 13 FLYING GODSPELL 5.1% 19.64 9
9 3 CLUB SPIRIT 5.0% 19.87 12
10 5 SOCKET ELITE 4.3% 23.10 14
11 11 U W BROTHER 2.9% 34.67 11
12 4 PRESIDENT STAR 2.8% 36.02 8
13 12 FOODIE PRINCESS 2.4% 41.11 6
14 7 TURF BRILLIANT 0.9% 113.15 13
THE CREATETHSUPER WINNERLITTLE THUNDERQUADRUPLE DOUBLE — wonMOMENTUM HAPPYBLOOMING SPIRITWOOD ON FIREFLYING GODSPELLCLUB SPIRITSOCKET ELITEU W BROTHERPRESIDENT STARFOODIE PRINCESSTURF BRILLIANT

Model vs market

Each dot is a runner: model probability across, market-implied probability up. Dots on the dashed line mean the two agreed; the gold ring is the actual winner.

Ratings are statistical estimates for analysis, not betting advice — the backtest shows no profitable edge against the Hong Kong win market. How the model works →

Dividends

Per $10 unit

WIN

9 45

PLACE

8 192.5

9 15.5

10 19.5

QUINELLA

8,9 2,407.5

QUINELLA PLACE

8,9 600.5

8,10 940.5

9,10 52

TIERCE

9,8,10 26,698

TRIO

8,9,10 4,612

FIRST 4

2,8,9,10 5,202

QUARTET

9,8,10,2 142,738

1ST DOUBLE

1/8 971

1/9 271.5

All pools (1 more)

3 PICK 1

A3

A1 14.5

A2