沙田 · 2019-10-01
第 10場
2019-10-01沙田第10場，Class 2，途程1200米，跑道評為GOOD TO FIRM。由J Moreira策騎、F C Lor訓練的FAT TURTLE勝出，贏出3。CALIFORNIA WHIP獲得亞軍；AETHERO獲得季軍。1.5倍大熱門AETHERO跑獲第3名。
賽果
| 名次 | No. | 馬名 | 騎師 | 練馬師 | 檔位 | 獨贏賠率 | 馬距 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 7 | FAT TURTLE B 1.08.39 ▶ 重播 （在新分頁開啟） J Moreira · F C Lor | J Moreira | F C Lor | 1 | 3.5 | 3 |
| 2 | 1 | CALIFORNIA WHIP B/H/TT H T Mo · A S Cruz | H T Mo | A S Cruz | 13 | 21.0 | 3 |
| 3 | 4 | AETHERO Z Purton · J Moore | Z Purton | J Moore | 5 | 1.5 | 4 |
| 4 | 10 | PERFECT GLORY H N Wong · C Fownes | H N Wong | C Fownes | 11 | 69.0 | 4 |
| 5 | 3 | RAGING BLITZKRIEG H U Rispoli · J Size | U Rispoli | J Size | 8 | 111.0 | 4-1/4 |
| 6 | 14 | TEAM SPIRIT B/TT T H So · W Y So | T H So | W Y So | 3 | 110.0 | 4-1/2 |
| 7 | 9 | BEAUTY RUSH B1 K Teetan · J Size | K Teetan | J Size | 6 | 15.0 | 5-3/4 |
| 8 | 8 | DAN CONTROL H/XB K C Leung · J Moore | K C Leung | J Moore | 12 | 27.0 | 5-3/4 |
| 9 | 11 | SUPER TURBO B M Chadwick · D J Hall | M Chadwick | D J Hall | 7 | 126.0 | 5-3/4 |
| 10 | 2 | RAGING STORM PC C Schofield · J Size | C Schofield | J Size | 10 | 28.0 | 6 |
| 11 | 13 | BALTIC WHISPER B-/TT H W Lai · C S Shum | H W Lai | C S Shum | 4 | 217.0 | 6-3/4 |
| 12 | 5 | HIGH FIVE G van Niekerk · A T Millard | G van Niekerk | A T Millard | 9 | 34.0 | 7-1/2 |
| 13 | 12 | CALIFORNIA ARCHER H/TT L Hewitson · A S Cruz | L Hewitson | A S Cruz | 2 | 67.0 | 8-1/2 |
| 14 | 6 | SPEED VISION B/TT A Sanna · F C Lor | A Sanna | F C Lor | 14 | 237.0 | 12 |
賽果形勢
模型評分
| 排名 | No. | 馬名 | 勝出概率 | 評估賠率 | 名次 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 4 | AETHERO | 49.9% | 2.00 | 3 |
| 2 | 7 | FAT TURTLE | 18.9% | 5.30 | 1 |
| 3 | 8 | DAN CONTROL | 7.9% | 12.62 | 8 |
| 4 | 9 | BEAUTY RUSH | 4.9% | 20.27 | 7 |
| 5 | 2 | RAGING STORM | 3.1% | 32.22 | 10 |
| 6 | 11 | SUPER TURBO | 2.4% | 42.15 | 9 |
| 7 | 1 | CALIFORNIA WHIP | 2.3% | 43.86 | 2 |
| 8 | 12 | CALIFORNIA ARCHER | 2.0% | 51.21 | 13 |
| 9 | 10 | PERFECT GLORY | 1.8% | 56.46 | 4 |
| 10 | 5 | HIGH FIVE | 1.7% | 58.22 | 12 |
| 11 | 3 | RAGING BLITZKRIEG | 1.5% | 64.53 | 5 |
| 12 | 6 | SPEED VISION | 1.3% | 76.90 | 14 |
| 13 | 13 | BALTIC WHISPER | 1.3% | 77.38 | 11 |
| 14 | 14 | TEAM SPIRIT | 1.0% | 97.13 | 6 |
模型對市場
每點代表一匹馬：橫軸為模型概率，縱軸為市場隱含概率。點落在虛線上代表兩者一致；金圈為實際頭馬。
評分僅為統計分析估算，並非投注建議——回測顯示模型對香港獨贏市場並無盈利優勢。 模型原理 →
派彩
WIN
7 35.5
PLACE
1 34
4 11.5
7 11
QUINELLA
1,7 214
QUINELLA PLACE
1,4 46.5
1,7 60
4,7 14
TIERCE
7,1,4 907
TRIO
1,4,7 73
FIRST 4
1,4,7,10 560
QUARTET
7,1,4,10 22,977
3 PICK 1
A1 —
A2 25.5
A3 —
全部彩池（另 4 項）
3RD DOUBLE TRIO
3,4,5/1,4,7 4,334
9TH DOUBLE
4/1 102
4/7 92.5
SIX UP
5/8/1/2/4/7 2,987
5,8/3,8/1,5/2,12/3,4/1,7 648
2 [J Moreira] —
TREBLE
2/4/1 246
2/4/7 202