沙田 · 2019-10-01
第 4場
2019-10-01沙田第4場，Class 4，途程1600米，跑道評為GOOD TO FIRM。由J Moreira策騎、K L Man訓練的SMART PATCH勝出，贏出2。CALIFORNIA LEGEND獲得亞軍；SAVVY SEVEN獲得季軍。頭馬後上力強。2.7倍大熱門CALIFORNIA LEGEND跑獲第2名。
賽果
| 名次 | No. | 馬名 | 騎師 | 練馬師 | 檔位 | 獨贏賠率 | 馬距 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 1 | SMART PATCH 後段發力 B 1.34.11 ▶ 重播 （在新分頁開啟） J Moreira · K L Man | J Moreira | K L Man | 11 | 8.6 | 2 |
| 2 | 8 | CALIFORNIA LEGEND 早段領放 TT K Teetan · A S Cruz | K Teetan | A S Cruz | 5 | 2.7 | 2 |
| 3 | 14 | SAVVY SEVEN 後段發力 B/TT M Chadwick · J Moore | M Chadwick | J Moore | 13 | 9.2 | 2-1/2 |
| 4 | 12 | BUNDLE OF ENERGY B L Hewitson · D J Hall | L Hewitson | D J Hall | 7 | 10.0 | 2-3/4 |
| 5 | 5 | ROYAL RACER 後段發力 H/P Z Purton · C Fownes | Z Purton | C Fownes | 10 | 6.7 | 5 |
| 6 | 2 | FULL POWER 後段發力 XB1 U Rispoli · R Gibson | U Rispoli | R Gibson | 9 | 179.0 | 5 |
| 7 | 10 | HAY RUN 後段發力 P-/H/TT H T Mo · L Ho | H T Mo | L Ho | 12 | 72.0 | 5 |
| 8 | 9 | DASHING DART 後段發力 B/TT C Schofield · P O'Sullivan | C Schofield | P O'Sullivan | 3 | 27.0 | 5-3/4 |
| 9 | 3 | WITNESS HUNTER B-/SR B Shinn · F C Lor | B Shinn | F C Lor | 8 | 5.8 | 6-1/4 |
| 10 | 4 | ELECTRIC LIGHTNING B/TT N Callan · D E Ferraris | N Callan | D E Ferraris | 4 | 18.0 | 6-1/4 |
| 11 | 13 | SAVANNAH WIND B H W Lai · C S Shum | H W Lai | C S Shum | 1 | 115.0 | 8-1/2 |
| 12 | 11 | THE FULL BLOOM T H So · C H Yip | T H So | C H Yip | 14 | 145.0 | 8-3/4 |
| 13 | 6 | CHIU CHOW KID TT A Domeyer · T P Yung | A Domeyer | T P Yung | 2 | 12.0 | 11-1/4 |
| 14 | 7 | SPARKLING KNIGHT A Sanna · Y S Tsui | A Sanna | Y S Tsui | 6 | 181.0 | 16-3/4 |
賽果形勢
模型評分
| 排名 | No. | 馬名 | 勝出概率 | 評估賠率 | 名次 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 8 | CALIFORNIA LEGEND | 23.2% | 4.31 | 2 |
| 2 | 1 | SMART PATCH | 22.9% | 4.37 | 1 |
| 3 | 5 | ROYAL RACER | 12.3% | 8.16 | 5 |
| 4 | 12 | BUNDLE OF ENERGY | 8.5% | 11.80 | 4 |
| 5 | 3 | WITNESS HUNTER | 5.9% | 16.95 | 9 |
| 6 | 14 | SAVVY SEVEN | 5.4% | 18.60 | 3 |
| 7 | 6 | CHIU CHOW KID | 4.9% | 20.54 | 13 |
| 8 | 10 | HAY RUN | 4.3% | 23.10 | 7 |
| 9 | 13 | SAVANNAH WIND | 3.7% | 27.25 | 11 |
| 10 | 4 | ELECTRIC LIGHTNING | 2.7% | 37.56 | 10 |
| 11 | 9 | DASHING DART | 2.5% | 40.59 | 8 |
| 12 | 2 | FULL POWER | 1.9% | 53.05 | 6 |
| 13 | 11 | THE FULL BLOOM | 1.1% | 87.13 | 12 |
| 14 | 7 | SPARKLING KNIGHT | 0.9% | 117.46 | 14 |
模型對市場
每點代表一匹馬：橫軸為模型概率，縱軸為市場隱含概率。點落在虛線上代表兩者一致；金圈為實際頭馬。
評分僅為統計分析估算，並非投注建議——回測顯示模型對香港獨贏市場並無盈利優勢。 模型原理 →
派彩
WIN
1 86
PLACE
1 28
8 13.5
14 29.5
QUINELLA
1,8 125.5
QUINELLA PLACE
1,8 50
1,14 140.5
8,14 66.5
TIERCE
1,8,14 2,524
TRIO
1,8,14 339
FIRST 4
1,8,12,14 876
QUARTET
1,8,14,12 18,518
1ST DOUBLE TRIO
3,5,6/1,8,14 13,908
全部彩池（另 2 項）
3 PICK 1
A3 —
A1 —
A2 23
3RD DOUBLE
5/1 202
5/8 12.5