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Sha Tin · 2019-10-20

Race 10

Class 3 GOOD TO FIRM 1400m Course A 13 runners

Race 10 at Sha Tin on 2019-10-20 was Class 3 over 1400m, run on GOOD TO FIRM going. PRECIOUSSHIP, ridden by C Y Ho and trained by P F Yiu, won by N, with HAPPY FUN second and BEAUTY LOYAL third. The winner closed strongly from off the pace. The 3.4 favourite EZRA finished 9th.

Result

Official · 1.20.62
Pos No. Horse Draw Odds Margin
1 6 PRECIOUSSHIP Closed strongly XB 1.20.62 ▶ Replay (opens in new tab) C Y Ho · P F Yiu 3 8.4 N
2 1 HAPPY FUN Closed strongly B/TT Z Purton · C S Shum 12 4.5 N
3 8 BEAUTY LOYAL Closed strongly B/TT A Domeyer · A S Cruz 8 9.7 2-3/4
4 9 EVERYONE'S JOY Closed strongly XB G van Niekerk · F C Lor 7 15.0 3-1/2
5 12 GREAT TREASURE Closed strongly T H So · Y S Tsui 1 14.0 4-1/2
6 5 CHARIZARD Closed strongly TT U Rispoli · D E Ferraris 13 7.5 5-1/2
7 3 SUPER WISE Led early H/P/TT K H Chan · K L Man 5 23.0 6
8 11 BEST ALLIANCE H-/XB C Schofield · D J Whyte 10 46.0 6-1/2
9 13 EZRA Closed strongly B/XB K Teetan · A T Millard 11 3.4 6-3/4
10 7 HAPPY FORCE B M L Yeung · T P Yung 4 8.4 7
11 10 STAR MAJESTIC Closed strongly B K C Leung · P O'Sullivan 9 78.0 8-1/4
12 14 SMART CHARADE B/H1/TT M Chadwick · W Y So 6 67.0 8-3/4
13 2 LAOS ENLIGHTENMENT B A Sanna · J Moore 2 207.0 9-3/4
4 FOLLOW ME J Moreira · J Size

Race shape

Beaten lengths
1. PRECIOUSSHIP2. HAPPY FUN+0.05L3. BEAUTY LOYAL+2.75L4. EVERYONE'S JOY+3.5L5. GREAT TREASURE+4.5L6. CHARIZARD+5.5L7. SUPER WISE+6L8. BEST ALLIANCE+6.5L9. EZRA+6.75L10. HAPPY FORCE+7L

Model ratings

Backtest · wf-2019-20
The model's top pick EZRA (21.5%) finished 9th — the winner PRECIOUSSHIP was rated #9. Out-of-sample backtest: this board was produced by a model trained only on seasons before this race — it never saw this result.
Rank No. Horse Win % Rated price Pos
1 13 EZRA 21.5% 4.65 9
2 1 HAPPY FUN 21.1% 4.75 2
3 7 HAPPY FORCE 11.1% 8.99 10
4 9 EVERYONE'S JOY 10.6% 9.45 4
5 5 CHARIZARD 9.0% 11.15 6
6 8 BEAUTY LOYAL 7.6% 13.20 3
7 12 GREAT TREASURE 4.5% 22.11 5
8 3 SUPER WISE 4.3% 23.02 7
9 6 PRECIOUSSHIP 3.1% 32.06 1
10 14 SMART CHARADE 2.9% 35.08 12
11 11 BEST ALLIANCE 2.0% 51.06 8
12 10 STAR MAJESTIC 1.7% 57.43 11
13 2 LAOS ENLIGHTENMENT 0.6% 155.64 13
EZRAHAPPY FUNHAPPY FORCEEVERYONE'S JOYCHARIZARDBEAUTY LOYALGREAT TREASURESUPER WISEPRECIOUSSHIP — wonSMART CHARADEBEST ALLIANCESTAR MAJESTICLAOS ENLIGHTENMENT

Model vs market

Each dot is a runner: model probability across, market-implied probability up. Dots on the dashed line mean the two agreed; the gold ring is the actual winner.

Ratings are statistical estimates for analysis, not betting advice — the backtest shows no profitable edge against the Hong Kong win market. How the model works →

Dividends

Per $10 unit

WIN

6 84.5

PLACE

1 16.5

6 30.5

8 28.5

QUINELLA

1,6 219.5

QUINELLA PLACE

1,6 84.5

1,8 82

6,8 148.5

TIERCE

6,1,8 5,374

TRIO

1,6,8 747

FIRST 4

1,6,8,9 2,267

QUARTET

6,1,8,9 46,238

3 PICK 1

A1

A2

A3 21.5

All pools (4 more)

3RD DOUBLE TRIO

3,10,11/1,6,8 790,703

9TH DOUBLE

11/1 31

11/6 267

SIX UP

3,6/3,7/1,2/2,8/3,11/1,6 15,390

3/7/1/2/11/6 2,452,937

3 [C Y Ho]

TREBLE

2/11/1 466

2/11/6 4,392