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Sha Tin · 2019-10-20

Race 2

Class 4 GOOD TO FIRM 1200m Course A 14 runners

Race 2 at Sha Tin on 2019-10-20 was Class 4 over 1200m, run on GOOD TO FIRM going. BIG FORTUNE, ridden by K H Chan and trained by D J Whyte, won by 3/4, with QUADRUPLE DOUBLE second and SUPER ALLIANCES third. The 3.0 favourite QUADRUPLE DOUBLE finished 2nd.

Result

Official · 1.08.46
Pos No. Horse Draw Odds Margin
1 1 BIG FORTUNE B/XB1 1.08.46 ▶ Replay (opens in new tab) K H Chan · D J Whyte 2 4.6 3/4
2 3 QUADRUPLE DOUBLE B Shinn · D J Hall 1 3.0 3/4
3 9 SUPER ALLIANCES U Rispoli · J Size 4 14.0 2-1/2
4 13 MASTER ALBERT B/E/TT K Teetan · W Y So 11 17.0 2-3/4
5 2 WINSTON'S LAD H C Y Ho · K W Lui 3 7.2 3
6 6 YICHUN BLITZ B J Moreira · K H Ting 14 5.9 5-1/2
7 5 JUDY'S STAR B Z Purton · P O'Sullivan 9 6.9 6-1/2
8 10 VIGOR CHAMP M L Yeung · T P Yung 13 257.0 7-3/4
9 14 IRISH VEGA B-/TT- T H So · C Fownes 5 75.0 7-3/4
10 4 RICH AND LUCKY H1 H T Mo · L Ho 7 41.0 8-1/4
11 7 MENAGGIO A Sanna · P F Yiu 8 118.0 8-1/2
12 12 TARGET FINDER H/XB2 N Callan · C W Chang 10 285.0 15-1/2
13 8 SPARKLING DOLPHIN L Hewitson · Y S Tsui 6 112.0 16-3/4
14 11 SUPER EIGHTEEN B M F Poon · A T Millard 12 39.0 44-1/2

Race shape

Beaten lengths
1. BIG FORTUNE2. QUADRUPLE DOUBLE+0.75L3. SUPER ALLIANCES+2.5L4. MASTER ALBERT+2.75L5. WINSTON'S LAD+3L6. YICHUN BLITZ+5.5L7. JUDY'S STAR+6.5L8. VIGOR CHAMP+7.75L9. IRISH VEGA+7.75L10. RICH AND LUCKY+8.25L

Model ratings

Backtest · wf-2019-20
The model's top pick JUDY'S STAR (24.6%) finished 7th — the winner BIG FORTUNE was rated #3. Out-of-sample backtest: this board was produced by a model trained only on seasons before this race — it never saw this result.
Rank No. Horse Win % Rated price Pos
1 5 JUDY'S STAR 24.6% 4.06 7
2 6 YICHUN BLITZ 17.6% 5.69 6
3 1 BIG FORTUNE 12.1% 8.25 1
4 3 QUADRUPLE DOUBLE 11.4% 8.77 2
5 13 MASTER ALBERT 7.4% 13.53 4
6 9 SUPER ALLIANCES 5.8% 17.39 3
7 11 SUPER EIGHTEEN 5.0% 19.91 14
8 4 RICH AND LUCKY 3.9% 25.47 10
9 10 VIGOR CHAMP 2.8% 35.81 8
10 2 WINSTON'S LAD 2.5% 40.54 5
11 14 IRISH VEGA 2.3% 43.19 9
12 7 MENAGGIO 1.9% 53.48 11
13 8 SPARKLING DOLPHIN 1.8% 54.37 13
14 12 TARGET FINDER 0.9% 113.50 12
JUDY'S STARYICHUN BLITZBIG FORTUNE — wonQUADRUPLE DOUBLEMASTER ALBERTSUPER ALLIANCESSUPER EIGHTEENRICH AND LUCKYVIGOR CHAMPWINSTON'S LADIRISH VEGAMENAGGIOSPARKLING DOLPHINTARGET FINDER

Model vs market

Each dot is a runner: model probability across, market-implied probability up. Dots on the dashed line mean the two agreed; the gold ring is the actual winner.

Ratings are statistical estimates for analysis, not betting advice — the backtest shows no profitable edge against the Hong Kong win market. How the model works →

Dividends

Per $10 unit

WIN

1 46

PLACE

1 17.5

3 13

9 37.5

QUINELLA

1,3 61.5

QUINELLA PLACE

1,3 31

1,9 92

3,9 77

TIERCE

1,3,9 1,170

TRIO

1,3,9 209

FIRST 4

1,3,9,13 747

QUARTET

1,3,9,13 10,598

1ST DOUBLE

9/1 363

9/3 72.5

All pools (1 more)

3 PICK 1

A2 23.5

A3

A1