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Sha Tin · 2019-10-20

Race 8

Group 2 GOOD TO FIRM 1600m Course A 11 runners

Result

Official · 1.32.82
Pos No. Horse Draw Odds Margin
1 0 RISE HIGH Closed strongly XB 1.32.82 ▶ Replay (opens in new tab) C Y Ho · C Fownes 7 17.0 N
2 0 WAIKUKU Closed strongly J Moreira · J Size 4 6.5 N
3 0 BEAUTY GENERATION B/TT Z Purton · J Moore 2 1.3 2-1/4
4 0 KA YING STAR Led early CP/TT K Teetan · A S Cruz 8 10.0 2-1/2
5 0 SOUTHERN LEGEND V A Sanna · C Fownes 5 28.0 3
6 0 EAGLE WAY Closed strongly XB-/B/TT2 G van Niekerk · J Moore 6 30.0 5-1/4
7 0 INSAYSHABLE H N Wong · Y S Tsui 1 142.0 5-3/4
8 0 NOTHINGILIKEMORE B M Chadwick · J Size 3 68.0 6
9 0 GLORIOUS FOREVER B/TT K C Leung · F C Lor 9 35.0 7-1/4
10 0 SIMPLY BRILLIANT XB M L Yeung · F C Lor 11 140.0 7-1/2
11 0 SINGAPORE SLING SR/XB L Hewitson · A T Millard 10 35.0 8

This site does not show odds as they change: the odds here are final prices after a race, or overnight prices before it.

Race 8 at Sha Tin on 2019-10-20 was Group 2 over 1600m, run on GOOD TO FIRM going. RISE HIGH, ridden by C Y Ho and trained by C Fownes, won by N, with WAIKUKU second and BEAUTY GENERATION third. The winner closed strongly from off the pace. The 1.3 favourite BEAUTY GENERATION finished 3rd.

Race shape

Beaten lengths
1. RISE HIGH—2. WAIKUKU+0.05L3. BEAUTY GENERATION+2.25L4. KA YING STAR+2.5L5. SOUTHERN LEGEND+3L6. EAGLE WAY+5.25L7. INSAYSHABLE+5.75L8. NOTHINGILIKEMORE+6L9. GLORIOUS FOREVER+7.25L10. SIMPLY BRILLIANT+7.5L

Model ratings

Backtest · wf-2019-20
The model's top pick BEAUTY GENERATION (41.4%) finished 3rd — the winner RISE HIGH was rated #5. Out-of-sample backtest: this board was produced by a model trained only on seasons before this race — it never saw this result.
Rank No. Horse Win % Rated price Pos
1 0 BEAUTY GENERATION 41.4% 2.41 3
2 0 KA YING STAR 15.2% 6.56 4
3 0 WAIKUKU 14.3% 7.00 2
4 0 GLORIOUS FOREVER 5.8% 17.26 9
5 0 RISE HIGH 5.5% 18.34 1
6 0 SIMPLY BRILLIANT 4.3% 23.40 10
7 0 NOTHINGILIKEMORE 3.2% 31.72 8
8 0 INSAYSHABLE 3.0% 32.96 7
9 0 EAGLE WAY 2.9% 34.79 6
10 0 SOUTHERN LEGEND 2.3% 43.84 5
11 0 SINGAPORE SLING 2.2% 45.67 11
BEAUTY GENERATIONKA YING STARWAIKUKUGLORIOUS FOREVERRISE HIGH — wonSIMPLY BRILLIANTNOTHINGILIKEMOREINSAYSHABLEEAGLE WAYSOUTHERN LEGENDSINGAPORE SLING

Model vs market

Each dot is a runner: model probability across, market-implied probability up. Dots on the dashed line mean the two agreed; the gold ring is the actual winner.

Ratings are statistical estimates for analysis, not betting advice — the backtest shows no profitable edge against the Hong Kong win market. How the model works →

Dividends

Per $10 unit

WIN

2 172.5

PLACE

1 11.5

2 28

8 15

QUINELLA

2,8 375.5

QUINELLA PLACE

1,2 36.5

1,8 19

2,8 73.5

TIERCE

2,8,1 2,607

TRIO

1,2,8 63

FIRST 4

1,2,8,9 82

QUARTET

2,8,1,9 7,146

3 PICK 1

A1 —

A3 56

A2 —

All pools (2 more)

7TH DOUBLE

1/2 752

1/8 60.5

WINNING TRAINER

B1 —

B3 —

B4 —

B2 107