Sha Tin · 2019-10-20
Race 8
Race 8 at Sha Tin on 2019-10-20 was Group 2 over 1600m, run on GOOD TO FIRM going. RISE HIGH, ridden by C Y Ho and trained by C Fownes, won by N, with WAIKUKU second and BEAUTY GENERATION third. The winner closed strongly from off the pace. The 1.3 favourite BEAUTY GENERATION finished 3rd.
Result
| Pos | No. | Horse | Jockey | Trainer | Draw | Odds | Margin |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 2 | RISE HIGH Closed strongly XB 1.32.82 ▶ Replay (opens in new tab) C Y Ho · C Fownes | C Y Ho | C Fownes | 7 | 17.0 | N |
| 2 | 8 | WAIKUKU Closed strongly J Moreira · J Size | J Moreira | J Size | 4 | 6.5 | N |
| 3 | 1 | BEAUTY GENERATION B/TT Z Purton · J Moore | Z Purton | J Moore | 2 | 1.3 | 2-1/4 |
| 4 | 9 | KA YING STAR Led early CP/TT K Teetan · A S Cruz | K Teetan | A S Cruz | 8 | 10.0 | 2-1/2 |
| 5 | 3 | SOUTHERN LEGEND V A Sanna · C Fownes | A Sanna | C Fownes | 5 | 28.0 | 3 |
| 6 | 5 | EAGLE WAY Closed strongly XB-/B/TT2 G van Niekerk · J Moore | G van Niekerk | J Moore | 6 | 30.0 | 5-1/4 |
| 7 | 10 | INSAYSHABLE H N Wong · Y S Tsui | H N Wong | Y S Tsui | 1 | 142.0 | 5-3/4 |
| 8 | 11 | NOTHINGILIKEMORE B M Chadwick · J Size | M Chadwick | J Size | 3 | 68.0 | 6 |
| 9 | 4 | GLORIOUS FOREVER B/TT K C Leung · F C Lor | K C Leung | F C Lor | 9 | 35.0 | 7-1/4 |
| 10 | 7 | SIMPLY BRILLIANT XB M L Yeung · F C Lor | M L Yeung | F C Lor | 11 | 140.0 | 7-1/2 |
| 11 | 6 | SINGAPORE SLING SR/XB L Hewitson · A T Millard | L Hewitson | A T Millard | 10 | 35.0 | 8 |
Race shape
Model ratings
| Rank | No. | Horse | Win % | Rated price | Pos |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 1 | BEAUTY GENERATION | 41.4% | 2.41 | 3 |
| 2 | 9 | KA YING STAR | 15.2% | 6.56 | 4 |
| 3 | 8 | WAIKUKU | 14.3% | 7.00 | 2 |
| 4 | 4 | GLORIOUS FOREVER | 5.8% | 17.26 | 9 |
| 5 | 2 | RISE HIGH | 5.5% | 18.34 | 1 |
| 6 | 7 | SIMPLY BRILLIANT | 4.3% | 23.40 | 10 |
| 7 | 11 | NOTHINGILIKEMORE | 3.2% | 31.72 | 8 |
| 8 | 10 | INSAYSHABLE | 3.0% | 32.96 | 7 |
| 9 | 5 | EAGLE WAY | 2.9% | 34.79 | 6 |
| 10 | 3 | SOUTHERN LEGEND | 2.3% | 43.84 | 5 |
| 11 | 6 | SINGAPORE SLING | 2.2% | 45.67 | 11 |
Model vs market
Each dot is a runner: model probability across, market-implied probability up. Dots on the dashed line mean the two agreed; the gold ring is the actual winner.
Ratings are statistical estimates for analysis, not betting advice — the backtest shows no profitable edge against the Hong Kong win market. How the model works →
Dividends
WIN
2 172.5
PLACE
1 11.5
2 28
8 15
QUINELLA
2,8 375.5
QUINELLA PLACE
1,2 36.5
1,8 19
2,8 73.5
TIERCE
2,8,1 2,607
TRIO
1,2,8 63
FIRST 4
1,2,8,9 82
QUARTET
2,8,1,9 7,146
3 PICK 1
A2 —
A1 —
A3 56
All pools (2 more)
7TH DOUBLE
1/2 752
1/8 60.5
WINNING TRAINER
B1 —
B3 —
B4 —
B2 107