Sha Tin · 2019-10-20

Race 3

Group 2 GOOD TO FIRM 1200m Course A 8 runners

Race 3 at Sha Tin on 2019-10-20 was Group 2 over 1200m, run on GOOD TO FIRM going. SEASONS BLOOM, ridden by G van Niekerk and trained by C S Shum, won by SH, with FULL OF BEAUTY second and WISHFUL THINKER third. The 2.3 favourite FULL OF BEAUTY finished 2nd.

Result

Official · 1.08.83

Pos	No.	Horse	Jockey	Trainer	Draw	Weight	Odds	Margin
1	5	SEASONS BLOOM TT 1.08.83 ▶ Replay (opens in new tab) G van Niekerk · C S Shum	G van Niekerk	C S Shum	7	125 lb	8.3	SH
2	6	FULL OF BEAUTY J Moreira · J Size	J Moreira	J Size	3	120 lb	2.3	SH
3	4	WISHFUL THINKER B C Y Ho · R Gibson	C Y Ho	R Gibson	2	127 lb	15.0	N
4	2	RATTAN B C Schofield · R Gibson	C Schofield	R Gibson	8	132 lb	9.6	3/4
5	3	PAKISTAN STAR Z Purton · P O'Sullivan	Z Purton	P O'Sullivan	4	131 lb	3.0	1-3/4
6	7	GOOD STANDING B/XB K Teetan · J Moore	K Teetan	J Moore	6	116 lb	8.7	3-1/4
7	8	GUNNISON M Chadwick · J Size	M Chadwick	J Size	1	113 lb	51.0	4-1/4
8	1	IVICTORY B-/TT1 B Shinn · J Size	B Shinn	J Size	5	133 lb	34.0	5

Race shape

Beaten lengths

Model ratings

Backtest · wf-2019-20

The model's top pick FULL OF BEAUTY (42.9%) finished 2nd — the winner SEASONS BLOOM was rated #5. Out-of-sample backtest: this board was produced by a model trained only on seasons before this race — it never saw this result.

Rank	No.	Horse	Win %	Rated price	Pos	Final odds
1	6	FULL OF BEAUTY	42.9%	2.33	2	2.3
2	3	PAKISTAN STAR	16.2%	6.18	5	3.0
3	7	GOOD STANDING	8.6%	11.59	6	8.7
4	2	RATTAN	8.3%	12.00	4	9.6
5	5	SEASONS BLOOM	7.6%	13.23	1	8.3
6	4	WISHFUL THINKER	6.6%	15.22	3	15.0
7	8	GUNNISON	6.2%	16.03	7	51.0
8	1	IVICTORY	3.6%	27.45	8	34.0

Model vs market

Each dot is a runner: model probability across, market-implied probability up. Dots on the dashed line mean the two agreed; the gold ring is the actual winner.

Ratings are statistical estimates for analysis, not betting advice — the backtest shows no profitable edge against the Hong Kong win market. How the model works →

Dividends

Per $10 unit

WIN

5 83.5

PLACE

4 25.5

5 19.5

6 13.5

QUINELLA

5,6 108.5

QUINELLA PLACE

4,5 86

4,6 40

5,6 37.5

TIERCE

5,6,4 1,307

TRIO

4,5,6 155

FIRST 4

2,4,5,6 128

QUARTET

5,6,4,2 5,160

2ND DOUBLE

1/5 398

1/6 16

All pools (2 more)

3 PICK 1

A1 —

A3 —

A2 18

WINNING TRAINER

B3 17.5

B2 —

B1 —

← Race 2 Race 4 → This meeting Draw bias · Sha Tin 1200m Need this as data? Full results archive from $99