Sha Tin · 2019-10-20
Race 7
Race 7 at Sha Tin on 2019-10-20 was Class 3 over 1200m, run on GOOD TO FIRM going. AEROHAPPINESS, ridden by J Moreira and trained by J Size, won by 3/4, with MR CROISSANT second and LONE EAGLE third. The 3.5 favourite MR CROISSANT finished 2nd.
Result
| Pos | No. | Horse | Jockey | Trainer | Draw | Odds | Margin |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 1 | AEROHAPPINESS 1.08.81 ▶ Replay (opens in new tab) J Moreira · J Size | J Moreira | J Size | 2 | 5.7 | 3/4 |
| 2 | 2 | MR CROISSANT CP Z Purton · W Y So | Z Purton | W Y So | 7 | 3.5 | 3/4 |
| 3 | 3 | LONE EAGLE XB B Shinn · P F Yiu | B Shinn | P F Yiu | 10 | 8.8 | 3/4 |
| 4 | 12 | MONICA B/TT G van Niekerk · J Moore | G van Niekerk | J Moore | 12 | 18.0 | 1-1/2 |
| 5 | 11 | JUMBO PRIZE TT R Bayliss · C Fownes | R Bayliss | C Fownes | 6 | 8.0 | 1-3/4 |
| 6 | 5 | LOCKHEED B/TT H T Mo · C S Shum | H T Mo | C S Shum | 8 | 9.5 | 2 |
| 7 | 6 | BEAUTY ICON B/TT1 A Domeyer · A S Cruz | A Domeyer | A S Cruz | 1 | 11.0 | 2-1/2 |
| 8 | 8 | NEW ASIA SUNRISE C Y Ho · Y S Tsui | C Y Ho | Y S Tsui | 14 | 23.0 | 2-1/2 |
| 9 | 13 | E STAR H K C Leung · K L Man | K C Leung | K L Man | 9 | 20.0 | 3 |
| 10 | 9 | GRADE ONE B K Teetan · P O'Sullivan | K Teetan | P O'Sullivan | 3 | 11.0 | 3 |
| 11 | 4 | HERCULES T H So · C H Yip | T H So | C H Yip | 4 | 319.0 | 3-1/4 |
| 12 | 10 | AMBITIOUS HEART B/TT L Hewitson · D E Ferraris | L Hewitson | D E Ferraris | 13 | 51.0 | 3-1/4 |
| 13 | 14 | VALIANT DREAM H N Wong · K W Lui | H N Wong | K W Lui | 11 | 18.0 | 4-3/4 |
| 14 | 7 | ENZEMBLE XB1 C Schofield · D J Whyte | C Schofield | D J Whyte | 5 | 126.0 | 5-1/2 |
Race shape
Model ratings
| Rank | No. | Horse | Win % | Rated price | Pos |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 2 | MR CROISSANT | 25.4% | 3.93 | 2 |
| 2 | 1 | AEROHAPPINESS | 19.6% | 5.11 | 1 |
| 3 | 9 | GRADE ONE | 7.9% | 12.63 | 10 |
| 4 | 3 | LONE EAGLE | 7.5% | 13.36 | 3 |
| 5 | 13 | E STAR | 5.5% | 18.28 | 9 |
| 6 | 11 | JUMBO PRIZE | 5.3% | 18.89 | 5 |
| 7 | 5 | LOCKHEED | 4.9% | 20.59 | 6 |
| 8 | 12 | MONICA | 4.7% | 21.42 | 4 |
| 9 | 14 | VALIANT DREAM | 4.6% | 21.80 | 13 |
| 10 | 6 | BEAUTY ICON | 4.3% | 23.19 | 7 |
| 11 | 8 | NEW ASIA SUNRISE | 4.0% | 25.13 | 8 |
| 12 | 7 | ENZEMBLE | 3.8% | 26.62 | 14 |
| 13 | 10 | AMBITIOUS HEART | 2.3% | 43.90 | 12 |
| 14 | 4 | HERCULES | 0.4% | 257.43 | 11 |
Model vs market
Each dot is a runner: model probability across, market-implied probability up. Dots on the dashed line mean the two agreed; the gold ring is the actual winner.
Ratings are statistical estimates for analysis, not betting advice — the backtest shows no profitable edge against the Hong Kong win market. How the model works →
Dividends
WIN
1 57
PLACE
1 19.5
2 15
3 33
QUINELLA
1,2 70.5
QUINELLA PLACE
1,2 32
1,3 110.5
2,3 71
TIERCE
1,2,3 1,006
TRIO
1,2,3 201
FIRST 4
1,2,3,12 708
QUARTET
1,2,3,12 9,723
2ND DOUBLE TRIO
3,7,12/1,2,3 33,140
All pools (2 more)
3 PICK 1
A1 —
A2 29
A3 —
6TH DOUBLE
7/1 644
7/2 77