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Sha Tin · 2019-10-20

Race 4

Class 3 GOOD TO FIRM 1000m Course A 13 runners

Race 4 at Sha Tin on 2019-10-20 was Class 3 over 1000m, run on GOOD TO FIRM going. MR LUMIERES, ridden by K H Chan and trained by D J Hall, won by N, with MERIDIAN GENIUS second and HIGHLY PROACTIVE third. The 1.4 favourite CLASSIC UNICORN finished 6th.

Result

Official · 0.55.47
Pos No. Horse Draw Odds Margin
1 4 MR LUMIERES 0.55.47 ▶ Replay (opens in new tab) K H Chan · D J Hall 6 40.0 N
2 10 MERIDIAN GENIUS J Moreira · A T Millard 7 5.2 N
3 6 HIGHLY PROACTIVE H1 A Domeyer · K W Lui 13 8.7 2-1/2
4 11 SHINING GEM CP G van Niekerk · P F Yiu 8 22.0 3-1/4
5 7 SUPER JUNIOR V/TT K C Leung · T P Yung 11 19.0 3-1/2
6 5 CLASSIC UNICORN TT Z Purton · W Y So 10 1.4 5-3/4
7 8 HAPPY VICTORY M L Yeung · T P Yung 1 117.0 6
8 1 CALIFORNIA ARCHER H/TT K Teetan · A S Cruz 4 60.0 6-1/4
9 2 BALTIC WHISPER TT C Y Ho · C S Shum 3 44.0 7-1/2
10 12 HEALTHY LUCK XB-/B M Chadwick · K L Man 2 65.0 9
11 9 WINNING FEELING L Hewitson · D E Ferraris 9 119.0 11
12 13 MR RIGHT H/P T H So · L Ho 12 282.0 11-3/4
13 3 HELAKU KNIGHT CP1 N Callan · J Moore 5 82.0 13-1/4

Race shape

Beaten lengths
1. MR LUMIERES2. MERIDIAN GENIUS+0.05L3. HIGHLY PROACTIVE+2.5L4. SHINING GEM+3.25L5. SUPER JUNIOR+3.5L6. CLASSIC UNICORN+5.75L7. HAPPY VICTORY+6L8. CALIFORNIA ARCHER+6.25L9. BALTIC WHISPER+7.5L10. HEALTHY LUCK+9L

Model ratings

Backtest · wf-2019-20
The model's top pick CLASSIC UNICORN (45.6%) finished 6th — the winner MR LUMIERES was rated #3. Out-of-sample backtest: this board was produced by a model trained only on seasons before this race — it never saw this result.
Rank No. Horse Win % Rated price Pos
1 5 CLASSIC UNICORN 45.6% 2.19 6
2 10 MERIDIAN GENIUS 24.1% 4.15 2
3 4 MR LUMIERES 6.3% 15.81 1
4 7 SUPER JUNIOR 5.5% 18.29 5
5 6 HIGHLY PROACTIVE 3.3% 30.18 3
6 3 HELAKU KNIGHT 3.2% 31.19 13
7 1 CALIFORNIA ARCHER 3.0% 33.35 8
8 12 HEALTHY LUCK 2.6% 39.19 10
9 2 BALTIC WHISPER 2.1% 48.11 9
10 11 SHINING GEM 1.8% 56.05 4
11 8 HAPPY VICTORY 1.3% 78.37 7
12 13 MR RIGHT 0.9% 113.75 12
13 9 WINNING FEELING 0.4% 234.71 11
CLASSIC UNICORNMERIDIAN GENIUSMR LUMIERES — wonSUPER JUNIORHIGHLY PROACTIVEHELAKU KNIGHTCALIFORNIA ARCHERHEALTHY LUCKBALTIC WHISPERSHINING GEMHAPPY VICTORYMR RIGHTWINNING FEELING

Model vs market

Each dot is a runner: model probability across, market-implied probability up. Dots on the dashed line mean the two agreed; the gold ring is the actual winner.

Ratings are statistical estimates for analysis, not betting advice — the backtest shows no profitable edge against the Hong Kong win market. How the model works →

Dividends

Per $10 unit

WIN

4 405.5

PLACE

4 51

6 25

10 13.5

QUINELLA

4,10 742

QUINELLA PLACE

4,6 308

4,10 147.5

6,10 50.5

TIERCE

4,10,6 14,575

TRIO

4,6,10 1,765

FIRST 4

4,6,10,11 3,955

QUARTET

4,10,6,11 98,941

1ST DOUBLE TRIO

4,5,6/4,6,10 37,293

All pools (2 more)

3 PICK 1

A3 75

A1

A2

3RD DOUBLE

5/4 2,219

5/10 92