Sha Tin · 2019-10-27
Race 1
Race 1 at Sha Tin on 2019-10-27 was Class 5 over 1200m, run on GOOD (AWT) going. ROCHFORD, ridden by H T Mo and trained by L Ho, won by 2, with RUN MOOCHI second and EXPONENTS third. The 3.2 favourite I'M THE CONQUIST finished 6th.
Result
| Pos | No. | Horse | Jockey | Trainer | Draw | Odds | Margin |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 10 | ROCHFORD V 1.09.90 ▶ Replay (opens in new tab) H T Mo · L Ho | H T Mo | L Ho | 9 | 10.0 | 2 |
| 2 | 11 | RUN MOOCHI V M F Poon · K L Man | M F Poon | K L Man | 6 | 10.0 | 2 |
| 3 | 5 | EXPONENTS V J Moreira · Y S Tsui | J Moreira | Y S Tsui | 2 | 4.3 | 2-1/2 |
| 4 | 1 | CORRE RAPIDO B C Schofield · R Gibson | C Schofield | R Gibson | 5 | 7.9 | 2-1/2 |
| 5 | 6 | SUREWIN B2 N Callan · C W Chang | N Callan | C W Chang | 8 | 7.8 | 2-3/4 |
| 6 | 3 | I'M THE CONQUIST B2 A Sanna · D J Whyte | A Sanna | D J Whyte | 7 | 3.2 | 5-1/2 |
| 7 | 9 | FIRE AND GOLD PC1 H N Wong · C H Yip | H N Wong | C H Yip | 11 | 60.0 | 5-1/2 |
| 8 | 12 | KEEP GOING P-/H/PC1 H W Lai · Y S Tsui | H W Lai | Y S Tsui | 10 | 47.0 | 6-3/4 |
| 9 | 7 | CHARITYDREAM CP/TT K C Leung · W Y So | K C Leung | W Y So | 1 | 44.0 | 7 |
| 10 | 4 | ROMAN ODYSSEY TT Z Purton · K L Man | Z Purton | K L Man | 3 | 8.8 | 8-1/2 |
| 11 | 8 | DATING B/TT G van Niekerk · C H Yip | G van Niekerk | C H Yip | 4 | 18.0 | 17-1/4 |
| — | 2 | NEVER BETTER B Shinn · P O'Sullivan | B Shinn | P O'Sullivan | — | — | — |
Race shape
Model ratings
| Rank | No. | Horse | Win % | Rated price | Pos |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 5 | EXPONENTS | 31.5% | 3.17 | 3 |
| 2 | 3 | I'M THE CONQUIST | 12.9% | 7.74 | 6 |
| 3 | 4 | ROMAN ODYSSEY | 11.8% | 8.45 | 10 |
| 4 | 1 | CORRE RAPIDO | 9.4% | 10.64 | 4 |
| 5 | 11 | RUN MOOCHI | 8.8% | 11.40 | 2 |
| 6 | 6 | SUREWIN | 6.1% | 16.42 | 5 |
| 7 | 10 | ROCHFORD | 5.7% | 17.61 | 1 |
| 8 | 8 | DATING | 4.6% | 21.93 | 11 |
| 9 | 12 | KEEP GOING | 3.7% | 26.90 | 8 |
| 10 | 9 | FIRE AND GOLD | 2.8% | 35.14 | 7 |
| 11 | 7 | CHARITYDREAM | 2.6% | 37.78 | 9 |
Model vs market
Each dot is a runner: model probability across, market-implied probability up. Dots on the dashed line mean the two agreed; the gold ring is the actual winner.
Ratings are statistical estimates for analysis, not betting advice — the backtest shows no profitable edge against the Hong Kong win market. How the model works →
Dividends
WIN
10 103.5
PLACE
5 18.5
10 30
11 30
QUINELLA
10,11 365.5
QUINELLA PLACE
5,10 84.5
5,11 73.5
10,11 105
TIERCE
10,11,5 3,244
TRIO
5,10,11 438
FIRST 4
1,5,10,11 352
QUARTET
10,11,5,1 10,707
3 PICK 1
A1 —
A2 36
A3 —