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Sha Tin · 2019-10-27

Race 4

Class 2 GOOD (AWT) 1650m 9 runners

Race 4 at Sha Tin on 2019-10-27 was Class 2 over 1650m, run on GOOD (AWT) going. ELUSIVE STATE, ridden by J Moreira and trained by A T Millard, won by 1-3/4, with BUDDIES second and TURIN REDSTAR third. The winner closed strongly from off the pace. Victory came as the 2.3 favourite.

Result

Official · 1.38.52
Pos No. Horse Draw Odds Margin
1 1 ELUSIVE STATE Closed strongly TT 1.38.52 ▶ Replay (opens in new tab) J Moreira · A T Millard 2 2.3 1-3/4
2 7 BUDDIES Led early H/TT G van Niekerk · J Moore 4 4.1 1-3/4
3 3 TURIN REDSTAR CP/TT K C Leung · F C Lor 1 14.0 1-3/4
4 5 RAGING BLITZKRIEG H U Rispoli · J Size 3 9.2 3-3/4
5 2 MORETHANLUCKY Closed strongly B M Chadwick · F C Lor 7 32.0 4-1/4
6 4 GLORIOUS ARTIST Closed strongly Z Purton · F C Lor 8 5.0 4-1/2
7 8 ENRICHMENT Closed strongly B R Bayliss · J Size 9 27.0 5-1/4
8 6 CIRCUIT GLORY H/TT H T Mo · A S Cruz 6 14.0 7
9 9 NOBLE STEED M L Yeung · K W Lui 5 54.0 7-1/2

Race shape

Beaten lengths
1. ELUSIVE STATE—2. BUDDIES+1.75L3. TURIN REDSTAR+1.75L4. RAGING BLITZKRIEG+3.75L5. MORETHANLUCKY+4.25L6. GLORIOUS ARTIST+4.5L7. ENRICHMENT+5.25L8. CIRCUIT GLORY+7L9. NOBLE STEED+7.5L

Model ratings

Backtest · wf-2019-20
The model's top pick BUDDIES (38.6%) finished 2nd — the winner ELUSIVE STATE was rated #3. Out-of-sample backtest: this board was produced by a model trained only on seasons before this race — it never saw this result.
Rank No. Horse Win % Rated price Pos
1 7 BUDDIES 38.6% 2.59 2
2 4 GLORIOUS ARTIST 18.0% 5.54 6
3 1 ELUSIVE STATE 15.7% 6.38 1
4 3 TURIN REDSTAR 6.8% 14.73 3
5 2 MORETHANLUCKY 6.3% 15.79 5
6 6 CIRCUIT GLORY 5.7% 17.65 8
7 5 RAGING BLITZKRIEG 3.4% 29.52 4
8 9 NOBLE STEED 2.8% 35.41 9
9 8 ENRICHMENT 2.7% 36.97 7
BUDDIESGLORIOUS ARTISTELUSIVE STATE — wonTURIN REDSTARMORETHANLUCKYCIRCUIT GLORYRAGING BLITZKRIEGNOBLE STEEDENRICHMENT

Model vs market

Each dot is a runner: model probability across, market-implied probability up. Dots on the dashed line mean the two agreed; the gold ring is the actual winner.

Ratings are statistical estimates for analysis, not betting advice — the backtest shows no profitable edge against the Hong Kong win market. How the model works →

Dividends

Per $10 unit

WIN

1 23

PLACE

1 11.5

3 32.5

7 16

QUINELLA

1,7 48.5

QUINELLA PLACE

1,3 44

1,7 20.5

3,7 68

TIERCE

1,7,3 401

TRIO

1,3,7 125

FIRST 4

1,3,5,7 152

QUARTET

1,7,3,5 1,450

3 PICK 1

A2 —

A3 —

A1 14.5

All pools (1 more)

3RD DOUBLE

10/1 119

10/7 33.5

← Race 3 Race 5 → This meeting Draw bias · Sha Tin 1650m Need this as data? Full results archive from $99