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Sha Tin · 2019-10-27

Race 7

Class 3 GOOD (AWT) 1200m 12 runners

Race 7 at Sha Tin on 2019-10-27 was Class 3 over 1200m, run on GOOD (AWT) going. MR WEALTH, ridden by R Bayliss and trained by K L Man, won by N, with AQUILA second and JUST NOT LISTENING third. The 2.7 favourite AQUILA finished 2nd.

Result

Official · 1.09.30
Pos No. Horse Draw Odds Margin
1 6 MR WEALTH H/P 1.09.30 ▶ Replay (opens in new tab) R Bayliss · K L Man 3 19.0 N
2 11 AQUILA J Moreira · K H Ting 1 2.7 N
3 4 JUST NOT LISTENING B M Chadwick · J Moore 7 10.0 2
4 10 MEGA RED B K C Leung · C W Chang 2 10.0 2-1/2
5 3 MOST BEAUTIFUL B/TT G van Niekerk · C S Shum 8 18.0 3-1/2
6 1 SOLOMON'S BAY CP/XB Z Purton · F C Lor 4 7.4 3-3/4
7 8 MAGNIFICENT T H So · L Ho 11 48.0 4-1/2
8 2 SILVER FIG B Shinn · A T Millard 9 3.6 4-3/4
9 5 FLYING SWORD A Sanna · Y S Tsui 10 53.0 5-1/2
10 9 TOP MILITARY M L Yeung · T P Yung 12 80.0 10
11 7 TEAM FORTUNE B/TT C Schofield · W Y So 5 13.0 10-1/2
12 12 STAR OF THEHARBOUR TT- M F Poon · D J Hall 6 65.0 11

Race shape

Beaten lengths
1. MR WEALTH2. AQUILA+0.05L3. JUST NOT LISTENING+2L4. MEGA RED+2.5L5. MOST BEAUTIFUL+3.5L6. SOLOMON'S BAY+3.75L7. MAGNIFICENT+4.5L8. SILVER FIG+4.75L9. FLYING SWORD+5.5L10. TOP MILITARY+10L

Model ratings

Backtest · wf-2019-20
The model's top pick AQUILA (45.6%) finished 2nd — the winner MR WEALTH was rated #8. Out-of-sample backtest: this board was produced by a model trained only on seasons before this race — it never saw this result.
Rank No. Horse Win % Rated price Pos
1 11 AQUILA 45.6% 2.19 2
2 1 SOLOMON'S BAY 17.2% 5.81 6
3 2 SILVER FIG 13.3% 7.50 8
4 4 JUST NOT LISTENING 4.6% 21.70 3
5 7 TEAM FORTUNE 4.4% 22.78 11
6 3 MOST BEAUTIFUL 4.2% 24.08 5
7 10 MEGA RED 3.5% 28.68 4
8 6 MR WEALTH 1.8% 54.86 1
9 5 FLYING SWORD 1.8% 57.13 9
10 9 TOP MILITARY 1.6% 61.21 10
11 8 MAGNIFICENT 1.3% 75.97 7
12 12 STAR OF THEHARBOUR 0.7% 138.37 12
AQUILASOLOMON'S BAYSILVER FIGJUST NOT LISTENINGTEAM FORTUNEMOST BEAUTIFULMEGA REDMR WEALTH — wonFLYING SWORDTOP MILITARYMAGNIFICENTSTAR OF THEHARBOUR

Model vs market

Each dot is a runner: model probability across, market-implied probability up. Dots on the dashed line mean the two agreed; the gold ring is the actual winner.

Ratings are statistical estimates for analysis, not betting advice — the backtest shows no profitable edge against the Hong Kong win market. How the model works →

Dividends

Per $10 unit

WIN

6 196.5

PLACE

4 27

6 54

11 14.5

QUINELLA

6,11 358.5

QUINELLA PLACE

4,6 238

4,11 55.5

6,11 136

TIERCE

6,11,4 8,491

TRIO

4,6,11 1,092

FIRST 4

4,6,10,11 1,634

QUARTET

6,11,4,10 48,587

3 PICK 1

A2 36

A3

A1

All pools (3 more)

6TH DOUBLE

8/6 947.5

8/11 14.5

TRIPLE TRIO

3,4,12/1,8,11/4,6,11 3,395,057

TRIPLE TRIO (CONSOLATION)

3,4,12/1,8,11/Any Combination 8,849