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Sha Tin · 2019-10-27

Race 9

Class 3 GOOD (AWT) 1200m 11 runners

Race 9 at Sha Tin on 2019-10-27 was Class 3 over 1200m, run on GOOD (AWT) going. SEVEN HEAVENS, ridden by B Shinn and trained by C Fownes, won by HD, with UTOPIA LIFE second and ENCORE BOY third. The 3.5 favourite UTOPIA LIFE finished 2nd.

Result

Official · 1.09.17
Pos No. Horse Draw Odds Margin
1 2 SEVEN HEAVENS B/H/TT 1.09.17 ▶ Replay (opens in new tab) B Shinn · C Fownes 3 7.1 HD
2 8 UTOPIA LIFE B C Schofield · K L Man 1 3.5 HD
3 1 ENCORE BOY B G van Niekerk · P F Yiu 9 8.3 N
4 7 MEGA HEART XB/TT R Bayliss · C W Chang 7 13.0 3/4
5 10 ELITE PATCH H/B2/TT M Chadwick · K W Lui 2 6.8 1
6 9 KA YING MASTER TT K C Leung · T P Yung 5 9.6 1-3/4
7 4 PRIVATE ROCKET B/XB A Sanna · D J Whyte 10 17.0 1-3/4
8 3 COBY OPPA CP/TT J Moreira · F C Lor 8 6.6 2-1/2
9 6 NATURAL WINNER TT1 Z Purton · R Gibson 6 14.0 5
10 11 GENERAL DINO B H N Wong · D E Ferraris 11 97.0 9-1/4
11 5 FORZA ANGEL U Rispoli · Y S Tsui 4 18.0 9-1/2
12 DECISIVE ACTION T H So · C H Yip

Race shape

Beaten lengths
1. SEVEN HEAVENS2. UTOPIA LIFE+0.2L3. ENCORE BOY+0.05L4. MEGA HEART+0.75L5. ELITE PATCH+1L6. KA YING MASTER+1.75L7. PRIVATE ROCKET+1.75L8. COBY OPPA+2.5L9. NATURAL WINNER+5L10. GENERAL DINO+9.25L

Model ratings

Backtest · wf-2019-20
The model's top pick COBY OPPA (29.0%) finished 8th — the winner SEVEN HEAVENS was rated #5. Out-of-sample backtest: this board was produced by a model trained only on seasons before this race — it never saw this result.
Rank No. Horse Win % Rated price Pos
1 3 COBY OPPA 29.0% 3.44 8
2 8 UTOPIA LIFE 16.3% 6.15 2
3 6 NATURAL WINNER 15.2% 6.57 9
4 9 KA YING MASTER 8.2% 12.14 6
5 2 SEVEN HEAVENS 7.7% 12.98 1
6 10 ELITE PATCH 5.9% 17.09 5
7 1 ENCORE BOY 5.4% 18.52 3
8 5 FORZA ANGEL 4.7% 21.23 11
9 4 PRIVATE ROCKET 4.3% 23.14 7
10 7 MEGA HEART 2.2% 45.92 4
11 11 GENERAL DINO 1.1% 91.91 10
COBY OPPAUTOPIA LIFENATURAL WINNERKA YING MASTERSEVEN HEAVENS — wonELITE PATCHENCORE BOYFORZA ANGELPRIVATE ROCKETMEGA HEARTGENERAL DINO

Model vs market

Each dot is a runner: model probability across, market-implied probability up. Dots on the dashed line mean the two agreed; the gold ring is the actual winner.

Ratings are statistical estimates for analysis, not betting advice — the backtest shows no profitable edge against the Hong Kong win market. How the model works →

Dividends

Per $10 unit

WIN

2 71.5

PLACE

1 28.5

2 20.5

8 16

QUINELLA

2,8 121.5

QUINELLA PLACE

1,2 105

1,8 59.5

2,8 47.5

TIERCE

2,8,1 2,009

TRIO

1,2,8 349

FIRST 4

1,2,7,8 885

QUARTET

2,8,1,7 18,445

3 PICK 1

A2 24.5

A3

A1

All pools (3 more)

8TH DOUBLE

8/2 221

8/8,12 12.5

SIX UP

1,7/4,12/8,11/6,11/5,8/2,8,12 813

1/12/8/6/8/2 263,161

1 [J Moreira]

TREBLE

6/8/2 5,653

6/8/8,12 518