Sha Tin · 2019-10-27
Race 9
Race 9 at Sha Tin on 2019-10-27 was Class 3 over 1200m, run on GOOD (AWT) going. SEVEN HEAVENS, ridden by B Shinn and trained by C Fownes, won by HD, with UTOPIA LIFE second and ENCORE BOY third. The 3.5 favourite UTOPIA LIFE finished 2nd.
Result
| Pos | No. | Horse | Jockey | Trainer | Draw | Odds | Margin |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 2 | SEVEN HEAVENS B/H/TT 1.09.17 ▶ Replay (opens in new tab) B Shinn · C Fownes | B Shinn | C Fownes | 3 | 7.1 | HD |
| 2 | 8 | UTOPIA LIFE B C Schofield · K L Man | C Schofield | K L Man | 1 | 3.5 | HD |
| 3 | 1 | ENCORE BOY B G van Niekerk · P F Yiu | G van Niekerk | P F Yiu | 9 | 8.3 | N |
| 4 | 7 | MEGA HEART XB/TT R Bayliss · C W Chang | R Bayliss | C W Chang | 7 | 13.0 | 3/4 |
| 5 | 10 | ELITE PATCH H/B2/TT M Chadwick · K W Lui | M Chadwick | K W Lui | 2 | 6.8 | 1 |
| 6 | 9 | KA YING MASTER TT K C Leung · T P Yung | K C Leung | T P Yung | 5 | 9.6 | 1-3/4 |
| 7 | 4 | PRIVATE ROCKET B/XB A Sanna · D J Whyte | A Sanna | D J Whyte | 10 | 17.0 | 1-3/4 |
| 8 | 3 | COBY OPPA CP/TT J Moreira · F C Lor | J Moreira | F C Lor | 8 | 6.6 | 2-1/2 |
| 9 | 6 | NATURAL WINNER TT1 Z Purton · R Gibson | Z Purton | R Gibson | 6 | 14.0 | 5 |
| 10 | 11 | GENERAL DINO B H N Wong · D E Ferraris | H N Wong | D E Ferraris | 11 | 97.0 | 9-1/4 |
| 11 | 5 | FORZA ANGEL U Rispoli · Y S Tsui | U Rispoli | Y S Tsui | 4 | 18.0 | 9-1/2 |
| — | 12 | DECISIVE ACTION T H So · C H Yip | T H So | C H Yip | — | — | — |
Race shape
Model ratings
| Rank | No. | Horse | Win % | Rated price | Pos |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 3 | COBY OPPA | 29.0% | 3.44 | 8 |
| 2 | 8 | UTOPIA LIFE | 16.3% | 6.15 | 2 |
| 3 | 6 | NATURAL WINNER | 15.2% | 6.57 | 9 |
| 4 | 9 | KA YING MASTER | 8.2% | 12.14 | 6 |
| 5 | 2 | SEVEN HEAVENS | 7.7% | 12.98 | 1 |
| 6 | 10 | ELITE PATCH | 5.9% | 17.09 | 5 |
| 7 | 1 | ENCORE BOY | 5.4% | 18.52 | 3 |
| 8 | 5 | FORZA ANGEL | 4.7% | 21.23 | 11 |
| 9 | 4 | PRIVATE ROCKET | 4.3% | 23.14 | 7 |
| 10 | 7 | MEGA HEART | 2.2% | 45.92 | 4 |
| 11 | 11 | GENERAL DINO | 1.1% | 91.91 | 10 |
Model vs market
Each dot is a runner: model probability across, market-implied probability up. Dots on the dashed line mean the two agreed; the gold ring is the actual winner.
Ratings are statistical estimates for analysis, not betting advice — the backtest shows no profitable edge against the Hong Kong win market. How the model works →
Dividends
WIN
2 71.5
PLACE
1 28.5
2 20.5
8 16
QUINELLA
2,8 121.5
QUINELLA PLACE
1,2 105
1,8 59.5
2,8 47.5
TIERCE
2,8,1 2,009
TRIO
1,2,8 349
FIRST 4
1,2,7,8 885
QUARTET
2,8,1,7 18,445
3 PICK 1
A2 24.5
A3 —
A1 —
All pools (3 more)
8TH DOUBLE
8/2 221
8/8,12 12.5
SIX UP
1,7/4,12/8,11/6,11/5,8/2,8,12 813
1/12/8/6/8/2 263,161
1 [J Moreira] —
TREBLE
6/8/2 5,653
6/8/8,12 518