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Sha Tin · 2019-10-27

Race 2

Class 4 GOOD (AWT) 1800m 10 runners

Race 2 at Sha Tin on 2019-10-27 was Class 4 over 1800m, run on GOOD (AWT) going. CURLING LUXURY, ridden by H N Wong and trained by Y S Tsui, won by 3/4, with MISTER MONTE second and ABOVE third. The winner led throughout. The 2.4 favourite ABOVE finished 3rd.

Result

Official · 1.49.65
Pos No. Horse Draw Odds Margin
1 7 CURLING LUXURY Wire to wire 1.49.65 ▶ Replay (opens in new tab) H N Wong · Y S Tsui 8 42.0 3/4
2 8 MISTER MONTE CP G van Niekerk · C W Chang 3 15.0 3/4
3 9 ABOVE Closed strongly B-/PC2 J Moreira · J Moore 2 2.4 1
4 4 HAY RUN H/TT K C Leung · L Ho 9 14.0 1-1/4
5 1 ENFOLDING Closed strongly V Z Purton · C Fownes 7 6.0 1-3/4
6 6 THIS ONE'S FOR YOU B/H M L Yeung · K W Lui 4 4.2 2-1/4
7 3 GOOD RUNNERS WAY B/TT B Shinn · C S Shum 1 8.6 3
8 2 GOOD FIT Closed strongly PC/TT N Callan · F C Lor 6 15.0 4-1/2
9 5 INDIGENOUS STAR Closed strongly M Chadwick · P F Yiu 10 24.0 7
10 10 CHEEKY BEE B M F Poon · A T Millard 5 44.0 7

Race shape

Beaten lengths
1. CURLING LUXURY2. MISTER MONTE+0.75L3. ABOVE+1L4. HAY RUN+1.25L5. ENFOLDING+1.75L6. THIS ONE'S FOR YOU+2.25L7. GOOD RUNNERS WAY+3L8. GOOD FIT+4.5L9. INDIGENOUS STAR+7L10. CHEEKY BEE+7L

Model ratings

Backtest · wf-2019-20
The model's top pick ABOVE (41.5%) finished 3rd — the winner CURLING LUXURY was rated #8. Out-of-sample backtest: this board was produced by a model trained only on seasons before this race — it never saw this result.
Rank No. Horse Win % Rated price Pos
1 9 ABOVE 41.5% 2.41 3
2 1 ENFOLDING 17.6% 5.70 5
3 3 GOOD RUNNERS WAY 11.0% 9.13 7
4 8 MISTER MONTE 10.3% 9.74 2
5 5 INDIGENOUS STAR 4.6% 21.83 9
6 2 GOOD FIT 4.0% 25.01 8
7 6 THIS ONE'S FOR YOU 3.5% 28.18 6
8 7 CURLING LUXURY 3.0% 32.87 1
9 10 CHEEKY BEE 2.7% 37.02 10
10 4 HAY RUN 1.9% 53.34 4
ABOVEENFOLDINGGOOD RUNNERS WAYMISTER MONTEINDIGENOUS STARGOOD FITTHIS ONE'S FOR YOUCURLING LUXURY — wonCHEEKY BEEHAY RUN

Model vs market

Each dot is a runner: model probability across, market-implied probability up. Dots on the dashed line mean the two agreed; the gold ring is the actual winner.

Ratings are statistical estimates for analysis, not betting advice — the backtest shows no profitable edge against the Hong Kong win market. How the model works →

Dividends

Per $10 unit

WIN

7 422

PLACE

7 82.5

8 41

9 12

QUINELLA

7,8 1,465.5

QUINELLA PLACE

7,8 424.5

7,9 153.5

8,9 64.5

TIERCE

7,8,9 13,573

TRIO

7,8,9 1,407

FIRST 4

4,7,8,9 2,881

QUARTET

7,8,9,4 117,328

1ST DOUBLE

10/7 5,192

10/8 238.5

All pools (1 more)

3 PICK 1

A1

A3 45.5

A2