Happy Valley · 2019-10-30

Race 1

Class 5 GOOD 2200m Course A 9 runners

Race 1 at Happy Valley on 2019-10-30 was Class 5 over 2200m, run on GOOD going. YOUNG GLORY, ridden by G van Niekerk and trained by D E Ferraris, won by 1-3/4, with ROMANTIC JOURNEY second and GOLDEN KID third. The winner closed strongly from off the pace. The 4.1 favourite SAVANNAH WIND finished 5th.

Result

Official · 2.19.15

Pos	No.	Horse	Jockey	Trainer	Draw	Weight	Odds	Margin
1	9	YOUNG GLORY Closed strongly B 2.19.15 ▶ Replay (opens in new tab) G van Niekerk · D E Ferraris	G van Niekerk	D E Ferraris	7	115 lb	6.7	1-3/4
2	8	ROMANTIC JOURNEY Closed strongly H/TT M L Yeung · C W Chang	M L Yeung	C W Chang	8	113 lb	11.0	1-3/4
3	5	GOLDEN KID Closed strongly V-/B2 A Sanna · K W Lui	A Sanna	K W Lui	6	128 lb	5.9	2
4	7	WICKER Led early B N Callan · R Gibson	N Callan	R Gibson	4	120 lb	6.7	2-3/4
5	2	SAVANNAH WIND B J Moreira · C S Shum	J Moreira	C S Shum	2	132 lb	4.1	4
6	1	HAPPY HOUR Closed strongly E/TT Z Purton · C H Yip	Z Purton	C H Yip	9	133 lb	5.9	5-1/4
7	3	SKY GEM L Hewitson · C Fownes	L Hewitson	C Fownes	5	130 lb	10.0	5-1/2
8	6	OUR GREEN B C Y Ho · C H Yip	C Y Ho	C H Yip	1	121 lb	42.0	6-1/2
9	4	DRAGON WARRIOR B/XB C Schofield · K H Ting	C Schofield	K H Ting	3	129 lb	7.9	7-1/2

Race shape

Beaten lengths

Model ratings

Backtest · wf-2019-20

The model's top pick SKY GEM (20.7%) finished 7th — the winner YOUNG GLORY was rated #7. Out-of-sample backtest: this board was produced by a model trained only on seasons before this race — it never saw this result.

Rank	No.	Horse	Win %	Rated price	Pos	Final odds
1	3	SKY GEM	20.7%	4.83	7	10.0
2	2	SAVANNAH WIND	16.3%	6.15	5	4.1
3	1	HAPPY HOUR	15.3%	6.54	6	5.9
4	7	WICKER	11.6%	8.62	4	6.7
5	5	GOLDEN KID	11.5%	8.69	3	5.9
6	4	DRAGON WARRIOR	9.0%	11.15	9	7.9
7	9	YOUNG GLORY	6.4%	15.67	1	6.7
8	8	ROMANTIC JOURNEY	5.4%	18.67	2	11.0
9	6	OUR GREEN	3.9%	25.41	8	42.0

Model vs market

Each dot is a runner: model probability across, market-implied probability up. Dots on the dashed line mean the two agreed; the gold ring is the actual winner.

Ratings are statistical estimates for analysis, not betting advice — the backtest shows no profitable edge against the Hong Kong win market. How the model works →

Dividends

Per $10 unit

WIN

9 67.5

PLACE

5 19

8 27

9 23.5

QUINELLA

8,9 267

QUINELLA PLACE

5,8 72.5

5,9 76.5

8,9 79

TIERCE

9,8,5 1,804

TRIO

5,8,9 330

FIRST 4

5,7,8,9 537

QUARTET

9,8,5,7 10,701

3 PICK 1

A1 25.5

A2 —

A3 —

Race 2 → This meeting Draw bias · Happy Valley 2200m Need this as data? Full results archive from $99