Happy Valley · 2019-10-30
Race 3
Result
| Pos | No. | Horse | Jockey | Trainer | Draw | Odds | Margin |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 0 | AMAZING LUCK Closed strongly B 1.41.47 ▶ Replay (opens in new tab) Z Purton · P O'Sullivan | Z Purton | P O'Sullivan | 4 | 6.8 | N |
| 2 | 0 | CASA DE FORCA Led early CP K H Chan · A S Cruz | K H Chan | A S Cruz | 3 | 4.5 | N |
| 3 | 0 | FLAME LILY TT J Moreira · F C Lor | J Moreira | F C Lor | 10 | 3.4 | N |
| 4 | 0 | MAGNETISM Closed strongly B/TT U Rispoli · D E Ferraris | U Rispoli | D E Ferraris | 1 | 10.0 | 1-1/4 |
| 5 | 0 | WINNING ENDEAVOUR Closed strongly H A Sanna · D J Whyte | A Sanna | D J Whyte | 8 | 4.8 | 2-1/4 |
| 6 | 0 | ULTIMATE GLORY Closed strongly V H W Lai · K L Man | H W Lai | K L Man | 6 | 30.0 | 2-3/4 |
| 7 | 0 | RAZOR QUEST B2/TT G van Niekerk · C W Chang | G van Niekerk | C W Chang | 5 | 15.0 | 3-3/4 |
| 8 | 0 | GREEN GENERATION Closed strongly B T H So · D J Hall | T H So | D J Hall | 9 | 152.0 | 6-3/4 |
| 9 | 0 | JOY MASTER Closed strongly TT M Chadwick · C Fownes | M Chadwick | C Fownes | 7 | 13.0 | 6-3/4 |
| 10 | 0 | GREAT SMART B-/CP1 H N Wong · L Ho | H N Wong | L Ho | 2 | 156.0 | 6-3/4 |
| 11 | 0 | MY WINNER B C Schofield · R Gibson | C Schofield | R Gibson | 11 | 15.0 | 11-1/2 |
| — | 0 | GALA NIGHT L Hewitson · J Moore | L Hewitson | J Moore | — | — | — |
This site does not show odds as they change: the odds here are final prices after a race, or overnight prices before it.
Race 3 at Happy Valley on 2019-10-30 was Class 4 over 1650m, run on GOOD going. AMAZING LUCK, ridden by Z Purton and trained by P O'Sullivan, won by N, with CASA DE FORCA second and FLAME LILY third. The winner closed strongly from off the pace. The 3.4 favourite FLAME LILY finished 3rd.
Race shape
Model ratings
| Rank | No. | Horse | Win % | Rated price | Pos |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 0 | AMAZING LUCK | 26.6% | 3.75 | 1 |
| 2 | 0 | FLAME LILY | 18.1% | 5.52 | 3 |
| 3 | 0 | JOY MASTER | 13.6% | 7.34 | 9 |
| 4 | 0 | MY WINNER | 10.3% | 9.67 | 11 |
| 5 | 0 | CASA DE FORCA | 10.2% | 9.78 | 2 |
| 6 | 0 | MAGNETISM | 7.8% | 12.76 | 4 |
| 7 | 0 | WINNING ENDEAVOUR | 7.1% | 14.04 | 5 |
| 8 | 0 | ULTIMATE GLORY | 3.0% | 33.18 | 6 |
| 9 | 0 | RAZOR QUEST | 1.5% | 66.57 | 7 |
| 10 | 0 | GREAT SMART | 1.0% | 102.86 | 10 |
| 11 | 0 | GREEN GENERATION | 0.6% | 163.14 | 8 |
Model vs market
Each dot is a runner: model probability across, market-implied probability up. Dots on the dashed line mean the two agreed; the gold ring is the actual winner.
Ratings are statistical estimates for analysis, not betting advice — the backtest shows no profitable edge against the Hong Kong win market. How the model works →
Dividends
WIN
1 68
PLACE
1 24
4 16.5
8 16
QUINELLA
1,4 155.5
QUINELLA PLACE
1,4 62
1,8 51
4,8 30.5
TIERCE
1,4,8 1,213
TRIO
1,4,8 140
FIRST 4
1,4,5,8 256
QUARTET
1,4,8,5 7,662
2ND DOUBLE
4/1 403
4/4 50.5
All pools (1 more)
3 PICK 1
A2 15.5
A3 —
A1 —