Happy Valley · 2019-10-30
Race 3
Race 3 at Happy Valley on 2019-10-30 was Class 4 over 1650m, run on GOOD going. AMAZING LUCK, ridden by Z Purton and trained by P O'Sullivan, won by N, with CASA DE FORCA second and FLAME LILY third. The winner closed strongly from off the pace. The 3.4 favourite FLAME LILY finished 3rd.
Result
| Pos | No. | Horse | Jockey | Trainer | Draw | Odds | Margin |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 1 | AMAZING LUCK Closed strongly B 1.41.47 ▶ Replay (opens in new tab) Z Purton · P O'Sullivan | Z Purton | P O'Sullivan | 4 | 6.8 | N |
| 2 | 4 | CASA DE FORCA Led early CP K H Chan · A S Cruz | K H Chan | A S Cruz | 3 | 4.5 | N |
| 3 | 8 | FLAME LILY TT J Moreira · F C Lor | J Moreira | F C Lor | 10 | 3.4 | N |
| 4 | 5 | MAGNETISM Closed strongly B/TT U Rispoli · D E Ferraris | U Rispoli | D E Ferraris | 1 | 10.0 | 1-1/4 |
| 5 | 3 | WINNING ENDEAVOUR Closed strongly H A Sanna · D J Whyte | A Sanna | D J Whyte | 8 | 4.8 | 2-1/4 |
| 6 | 2 | ULTIMATE GLORY Closed strongly V H W Lai · K L Man | H W Lai | K L Man | 6 | 30.0 | 2-3/4 |
| 7 | 10 | RAZOR QUEST B2/TT G van Niekerk · C W Chang | G van Niekerk | C W Chang | 5 | 15.0 | 3-3/4 |
| 8 | 9 | GREEN GENERATION Closed strongly B T H So · D J Hall | T H So | D J Hall | 9 | 152.0 | 6-3/4 |
| 9 | 12 | JOY MASTER Closed strongly TT M Chadwick · C Fownes | M Chadwick | C Fownes | 7 | 13.0 | 6-3/4 |
| 10 | 7 | GREAT SMART B-/CP1 H N Wong · L Ho | H N Wong | L Ho | 2 | 156.0 | 6-3/4 |
| 11 | 6 | MY WINNER B C Schofield · R Gibson | C Schofield | R Gibson | 11 | 15.0 | 11-1/2 |
| — | 11 | GALA NIGHT L Hewitson · J Moore | L Hewitson | J Moore | — | — | — |
Race shape
Model ratings
| Rank | No. | Horse | Win % | Rated price | Pos |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 1 | AMAZING LUCK | 26.6% | 3.75 | 1 |
| 2 | 8 | FLAME LILY | 18.1% | 5.52 | 3 |
| 3 | 12 | JOY MASTER | 13.6% | 7.34 | 9 |
| 4 | 6 | MY WINNER | 10.3% | 9.67 | 11 |
| 5 | 4 | CASA DE FORCA | 10.2% | 9.78 | 2 |
| 6 | 5 | MAGNETISM | 7.8% | 12.76 | 4 |
| 7 | 3 | WINNING ENDEAVOUR | 7.1% | 14.04 | 5 |
| 8 | 2 | ULTIMATE GLORY | 3.0% | 33.18 | 6 |
| 9 | 10 | RAZOR QUEST | 1.5% | 66.57 | 7 |
| 10 | 7 | GREAT SMART | 1.0% | 102.86 | 10 |
| 11 | 9 | GREEN GENERATION | 0.6% | 163.14 | 8 |
Model vs market
Each dot is a runner: model probability across, market-implied probability up. Dots on the dashed line mean the two agreed; the gold ring is the actual winner.
Ratings are statistical estimates for analysis, not betting advice — the backtest shows no profitable edge against the Hong Kong win market. How the model works →
Dividends
WIN
1 68
PLACE
1 24
4 16.5
8 16
QUINELLA
1,4 155.5
QUINELLA PLACE
1,4 62
1,8 51
4,8 30.5
TIERCE
1,4,8 1,213
TRIO
1,4,8 140
FIRST 4
1,4,5,8 256
QUARTET
1,4,8,5 7,662
2ND DOUBLE
4/1 403
4/4 50.5
All pools (1 more)
3 PICK 1
A3 —
A1 —
A2 15.5