Happy Valley · 2019-10-30
Race 2
Race 2 at Happy Valley on 2019-10-30 was Class 4 over 1000m, run on GOOD going. HONG KONG WIN, ridden by J Moreira and trained by J Size, won by 1-1/4, with VERY SWEET ORANGE second and STRATHALLAN third. Victory came as the 5.2 favourite.
Result
| Pos | No. | Horse | Jockey | Trainer | Draw | Odds | Margin |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 4 | HONG KONG WIN B 0.56.88 ▶ Replay (opens in new tab) J Moreira · J Size | J Moreira | J Size | 10 | 5.2 | 1-1/4 |
| 2 | 9 | VERY SWEET ORANGE V C Y Ho · Y S Tsui | C Y Ho | Y S Tsui | 12 | 9.4 | 1-1/4 |
| 3 | 3 | STRATHALLAN K H Chan · A T Millard | K H Chan | A T Millard | 6 | 8.3 | 3-1/4 |
| 4 | 11 | FLYING GODSPELL SR M F Poon · K H Ting | M F Poon | K H Ting | 11 | 88.0 | 4 |
| 5 | 8 | TRAVEL DATUK B N Callan · R Gibson | N Callan | R Gibson | 7 | 5.9 | 4-1/4 |
| 6 | 12 | DEMONS ROCK G van Niekerk · D J Hall | G van Niekerk | D J Hall | 8 | 5.2 | 4-1/4 |
| 7 | 1 | MR RIGHT H-/P- K C Leung · L Ho | K C Leung | L Ho | 1 | 12.0 | 5-1/4 |
| 8 | 6 | JAZZ STEED B- Z Purton · C Fownes | Z Purton | C Fownes | 5 | 7.1 | 5-1/2 |
| 9 | 2 | CEREFINO B2/TT A Sanna · W Y So | A Sanna | W Y So | 3 | 9.3 | 5-1/2 |
| 10 | 10 | BLADE RACER XB/TT H T Mo · C S Shum | H T Mo | C S Shum | 2 | 17.0 | 6-3/4 |
| 11 | 5 | GRAND HARBOUR H/TT H N Wong · C W Chang | H N Wong | C W Chang | 4 | 52.0 | 7 |
| 12 | 7 | HAPPY WINNER H1 M Chadwick · P F Yiu | M Chadwick | P F Yiu | 9 | 50.0 | 8-1/2 |
Race shape
Model ratings
| Rank | No. | Horse | Win % | Rated price | Pos |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 4 | HONG KONG WIN | 22.4% | 4.47 | 1 |
| 2 | 10 | BLADE RACER | 18.9% | 5.29 | 10 |
| 3 | 3 | STRATHALLAN | 9.4% | 10.65 | 3 |
| 4 | 8 | TRAVEL DATUK | 9.3% | 10.71 | 5 |
| 5 | 5 | GRAND HARBOUR | 8.4% | 11.97 | 11 |
| 6 | 6 | JAZZ STEED | 7.9% | 12.68 | 8 |
| 7 | 12 | DEMONS ROCK | 6.4% | 15.74 | 6 |
| 8 | 11 | FLYING GODSPELL | 5.4% | 18.39 | 4 |
| 9 | 9 | VERY SWEET ORANGE | 5.2% | 19.36 | 2 |
| 10 | 2 | CEREFINO | 2.5% | 39.46 | 9 |
| 11 | 7 | HAPPY WINNER | 2.3% | 43.95 | 12 |
| 12 | 1 | MR RIGHT | 2.0% | 50.16 | 7 |
Model vs market
Each dot is a runner: model probability across, market-implied probability up. Dots on the dashed line mean the two agreed; the gold ring is the actual winner.
Ratings are statistical estimates for analysis, not betting advice — the backtest shows no profitable edge against the Hong Kong win market. How the model works →
Dividends
WIN
4 52
PLACE
3 25.5
4 20
9 31.5
QUINELLA
4,9 293
QUINELLA PLACE
3,4 78.5
3,9 132.5
4,9 95.5
TIERCE
4,9,3 3,843
TRIO
3,4,9 746
FIRST 4
3,4,9,11 9,042
QUARTET
4,9,3,11 95,857
1ST DOUBLE
9/4 395
9/9 171.5
All pools (1 more)
3 PICK 1
A1 27.5
A2 —
A3 —