Happy Valley · 2019-10-30
Race 6
Race 6 at Happy Valley on 2019-10-30 was Class 3 over 1200m, run on GOOD going. BABY, ridden by T H So and trained by K H Ting, won by N, with LOBO'S LEGEND second and SHINING ACE third. The 2.7 favourite SHINING ACE finished 3rd.
Result
| Pos | No. | Horse | Jockey | Trainer | Draw | Odds | Margin |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 12 | BABY B 1.10.39 ▶ Replay (opens in new tab) T H So · K H Ting | T H So | K H Ting | 2 | 9.5 | N |
| 2 | 2 | LOBO'S LEGEND N Callan · D E Ferraris | N Callan | D E Ferraris | 10 | 13.0 | N |
| 3 | 7 | SHINING ACE B U Rispoli · J Size | U Rispoli | J Size | 4 | 2.7 | 3/4 |
| 4 | 4 | PLANET STAR B K H Chan · P O'Sullivan | K H Chan | P O'Sullivan | 5 | 4.5 | 1-3/4 |
| 5 | 6 | THE RUNNER C Schofield · D J Whyte | C Schofield | D J Whyte | 1 | 30.0 | 2-1/2 |
| 6 | 8 | STARLIGHT R Bayliss · C H Yip | R Bayliss | C H Yip | 6 | 28.0 | 2-1/2 |
| 7 | 9 | COMFORT LIFE XB/TT M F Poon · F C Lor | M F Poon | F C Lor | 7 | 27.0 | 2-3/4 |
| 8 | 5 | JING JING WIN CP- C Y Ho · D J Hall | C Y Ho | D J Hall | 8 | 10.0 | 4 |
| 9 | 1 | HELLO BEAUTY B/TT J Moreira · J Moore | J Moreira | J Moore | 11 | 5.0 | 5-1/4 |
| 10 | 11 | TANG FLEMING B/TT M L Yeung · C W Chang | M L Yeung | C W Chang | 3 | 53.0 | 5-1/4 |
| 11 | 10 | FAIRY TWINS TT H W Lai · W Y So | H W Lai | W Y So | 12 | 76.0 | 6-1/2 |
| 12 | 3 | DIVINE UNICORN TT A Sanna · Y S Tsui | A Sanna | Y S Tsui | 9 | 40.0 | 6-3/4 |
Race shape
Model ratings
| Rank | No. | Horse | Win % | Rated price | Pos |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 1 | HELLO BEAUTY | 29.8% | 3.36 | 9 |
| 2 | 7 | SHINING ACE | 17.6% | 5.69 | 3 |
| 3 | 4 | PLANET STAR | 17.5% | 5.73 | 4 |
| 4 | 9 | COMFORT LIFE | 7.7% | 13.05 | 7 |
| 5 | 2 | LOBO'S LEGEND | 6.1% | 16.33 | 2 |
| 6 | 12 | BABY | 4.6% | 21.77 | 1 |
| 7 | 5 | JING JING WIN | 4.5% | 22.46 | 8 |
| 8 | 3 | DIVINE UNICORN | 3.0% | 33.56 | 12 |
| 9 | 8 | STARLIGHT | 2.7% | 36.44 | 6 |
| 10 | 6 | THE RUNNER | 2.6% | 37.91 | 5 |
| 11 | 11 | TANG FLEMING | 2.2% | 44.96 | 10 |
| 12 | 10 | FAIRY TWINS | 1.8% | 57.06 | 11 |
Model vs market
Each dot is a runner: model probability across, market-implied probability up. Dots on the dashed line mean the two agreed; the gold ring is the actual winner.
Ratings are statistical estimates for analysis, not betting advice — the backtest shows no profitable edge against the Hong Kong win market. How the model works →
Dividends
WIN
12 95.5
PLACE
2 36.5
7 12.5
12 28
QUINELLA
2,12 729.5
QUINELLA PLACE
2,7 78.5
2,12 199
7,12 56.5
TIERCE
12,2,7 4,663
TRIO
2,7,12 484
FIRST 4
2,4,7,12 478
QUARTET
12,2,7,4 18,444
3 PICK 1
A2 —
A3 32.5
A1 —
All pools (3 more)
5TH DOUBLE
5/2 249
5/12 1,204
TRIPLE TRIO
2,7,9/2,3,5/2,7,12 21,624,873
TRIPLE TRIO (CONSOLATION)
2,7,9/2,3,5/Any Combination 16,780