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Happy Valley · 2019-10-30

Race 6

Class 3 GOOD 1200m Course A 12 runners

Race 6 at Happy Valley on 2019-10-30 was Class 3 over 1200m, run on GOOD going. BABY, ridden by T H So and trained by K H Ting, won by N, with LOBO'S LEGEND second and SHINING ACE third. The 2.7 favourite SHINING ACE finished 3rd.

Result

Official · 1.10.39
Pos No. Horse Draw Odds Margin
1 12 BABY B 1.10.39 ▶ Replay (opens in new tab) T H So · K H Ting 2 9.5 N
2 2 LOBO'S LEGEND N Callan · D E Ferraris 10 13.0 N
3 7 SHINING ACE B U Rispoli · J Size 4 2.7 3/4
4 4 PLANET STAR B K H Chan · P O'Sullivan 5 4.5 1-3/4
5 6 THE RUNNER C Schofield · D J Whyte 1 30.0 2-1/2
6 8 STARLIGHT R Bayliss · C H Yip 6 28.0 2-1/2
7 9 COMFORT LIFE XB/TT M F Poon · F C Lor 7 27.0 2-3/4
8 5 JING JING WIN CP- C Y Ho · D J Hall 8 10.0 4
9 1 HELLO BEAUTY B/TT J Moreira · J Moore 11 5.0 5-1/4
10 11 TANG FLEMING B/TT M L Yeung · C W Chang 3 53.0 5-1/4
11 10 FAIRY TWINS TT H W Lai · W Y So 12 76.0 6-1/2
12 3 DIVINE UNICORN TT A Sanna · Y S Tsui 9 40.0 6-3/4

Race shape

Beaten lengths
1. BABY2. LOBO'S LEGEND+0.05L3. SHINING ACE+0.75L4. PLANET STAR+1.75L5. THE RUNNER+2.5L6. STARLIGHT+2.5L7. COMFORT LIFE+2.75L8. JING JING WIN+4L9. HELLO BEAUTY+5.25L10. TANG FLEMING+5.25L

Model ratings

Backtest · wf-2019-20
The model's top pick HELLO BEAUTY (29.8%) finished 9th — the winner BABY was rated #6. Out-of-sample backtest: this board was produced by a model trained only on seasons before this race — it never saw this result.
Rank No. Horse Win % Rated price Pos
1 1 HELLO BEAUTY 29.8% 3.36 9
2 7 SHINING ACE 17.6% 5.69 3
3 4 PLANET STAR 17.5% 5.73 4
4 9 COMFORT LIFE 7.7% 13.05 7
5 2 LOBO'S LEGEND 6.1% 16.33 2
6 12 BABY 4.6% 21.77 1
7 5 JING JING WIN 4.5% 22.46 8
8 3 DIVINE UNICORN 3.0% 33.56 12
9 8 STARLIGHT 2.7% 36.44 6
10 6 THE RUNNER 2.6% 37.91 5
11 11 TANG FLEMING 2.2% 44.96 10
12 10 FAIRY TWINS 1.8% 57.06 11
HELLO BEAUTYSHINING ACEPLANET STARCOMFORT LIFELOBO'S LEGENDBABY — wonJING JING WINDIVINE UNICORNSTARLIGHTTHE RUNNERTANG FLEMINGFAIRY TWINS

Model vs market

Each dot is a runner: model probability across, market-implied probability up. Dots on the dashed line mean the two agreed; the gold ring is the actual winner.

Ratings are statistical estimates for analysis, not betting advice — the backtest shows no profitable edge against the Hong Kong win market. How the model works →

Dividends

Per $10 unit

WIN

12 95.5

PLACE

2 36.5

7 12.5

12 28

QUINELLA

2,12 729.5

QUINELLA PLACE

2,7 78.5

2,12 199

7,12 56.5

TIERCE

12,2,7 4,663

TRIO

2,7,12 484

FIRST 4

2,4,7,12 478

QUARTET

12,2,7,4 18,444

3 PICK 1

A2

A3 32.5

A1

All pools (3 more)

5TH DOUBLE

5/2 249

5/12 1,204

TRIPLE TRIO

2,7,9/2,3,5/2,7,12 21,624,873

TRIPLE TRIO (CONSOLATION)

2,7,9/2,3,5/Any Combination 16,780