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Happy Valley · 2019-10-30

Race 7

Class 3 GOOD 1650m Course A 11 runners

Result

Official · 1.39.83
Pos No. Horse Draw Odds Margin
1 0 FLYING QUEST Closed strongly B 1.39.83 ▶ Replay (opens in new tab) M F Poon · D J Hall 11 9.8 SH
2 0 UNIVERSAL GO GO Closed strongly C Y Ho · K W Lui 6 3.1 SH
3 0 LOOKING GOOD Closed strongly B G van Niekerk · F C Lor 1 6.4 1/2
4 0 RED ELYSEES Closed strongly B K C Leung · K L Man 3 23.0 1/2
5 0 BEAR AGAIN Closed strongly SR U Rispoli · D E Ferraris 7 17.0 1
6 0 ARCADA TT K H Chan · A T Millard 5 9.4 2
7 0 INVINCIBLE MISSILE Closed strongly B/TT Z Purton · W Y So 10 5.3 2
8 0 CIRCUIT HASSLER B/H/TT L Hewitson · A S Cruz 9 18.0 4-1/4
9 0 TRAVEL FIRST B/TT C Schofield · C W Chang 2 46.0 4-3/4
10 0 PRETTY BAUHINIA H W Lai · Y S Tsui 4 51.0 5-1/2
11 0 LAST KINGDOM Led early XB A Sanna · D J Whyte 12 9.4 13-1/4
— 0 COBY BOY B M L Yeung · T P Yung 8 24.0 —

This site does not show odds as they change: the odds here are final prices after a race, or overnight prices before it.

Race 7 at Happy Valley on 2019-10-30 was Class 3 over 1650m, run on GOOD going. FLYING QUEST, ridden by M F Poon and trained by D J Hall, won by SH, with UNIVERSAL GO GO second and LOOKING GOOD third. The winner closed strongly from off the pace. The 3.1 favourite UNIVERSAL GO GO finished 2nd.

Race shape

Beaten lengths
1. FLYING QUEST—2. UNIVERSAL GO GO+0.1L3. LOOKING GOOD+0.5L4. RED ELYSEES+0.5L5. BEAR AGAIN+1L6. ARCADA+2L7. INVINCIBLE MISSILE+2L8. CIRCUIT HASSLER+4.25L9. TRAVEL FIRST+4.75L10. PRETTY BAUHINIA+5.5L

Model ratings

Backtest · wf-2019-20
The model's top pick LOOKING GOOD (22.7%) finished 3rd — the winner FLYING QUEST was rated #7. Out-of-sample backtest: this board was produced by a model trained only on seasons before this race — it never saw this result.
Rank No. Horse Win % Rated price Pos
1 0 LOOKING GOOD 22.7% 4.40 3
2 0 INVINCIBLE MISSILE 20.5% 4.87 7
3 0 LAST KINGDOM 12.4% 8.06 11
4 0 UNIVERSAL GO GO 10.7% 9.33 2
5 0 CIRCUIT HASSLER 8.7% 11.56 8
6 0 ARCADA 7.4% 13.51 6
7 0 FLYING QUEST 5.3% 18.96 1
8 0 RED ELYSEES 4.1% 24.26 4
9 0 BEAR AGAIN 3.5% 28.67 5
10 0 PRETTY BAUHINIA 2.4% 42.54 10
11 0 TRAVEL FIRST 2.3% 43.34 9
LOOKING GOODINVINCIBLE MISSILELAST KINGDOMUNIVERSAL GO GOCIRCUIT HASSLERARCADAFLYING QUEST — wonRED ELYSEESBEAR AGAINPRETTY BAUHINIATRAVEL FIRST

Model vs market

Each dot is a runner: model probability across, market-implied probability up. Dots on the dashed line mean the two agreed; the gold ring is the actual winner.

Ratings are statistical estimates for analysis, not betting advice — the backtest shows no profitable edge against the Hong Kong win market. How the model works →

Dividends

Per $10 unit

WIN

5 98.5

PLACE

5 25.5

8 21.5

9 15

QUINELLA

5,9 178

QUINELLA PLACE

5,8 110

5,9 66.5

8,9 39

TIERCE

5,9,8 2,155

TRIO

5,8,9 310

FIRST 4

5,7,8,9 1,228

QUARTET

5,9,8,7 28,721

2ND DOUBLE TRIO

2,7,12/5,8,9 25,230

All pools (2 more)

3 PICK 1

A3 26

A2 —

A1 —

6TH DOUBLE

12/5 1,154.5

12/9 73.5