Happy Valley · 2019-10-30
Race 8
Race 8 at Happy Valley on 2019-10-30 was Class 3 over 1800m, run on GOOD going. XIANG BAI QI, ridden by U Rispoli and trained by D E Ferraris, won by 1/2, with CHEFANO second and PARTY TOGETHER third. The winner closed strongly from off the pace. The 2.1 favourite CHEFANO finished 2nd.
Result
| Pos | No. | Horse | Jockey | Trainer | Draw | Odds | Margin |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 11 | XIANG BAI QI Closed strongly 1.48.83 ▶ Replay (opens in new tab) U Rispoli · D E Ferraris | U Rispoli | D E Ferraris | 9 | 10.0 | 1/2 |
| 2 | 1 | CHEFANO Closed strongly CP Z Purton · J Moore | Z Purton | J Moore | 7 | 2.1 | 1/2 |
| 3 | 10 | PARTY TOGETHER H W Lai · L Ho | H W Lai | L Ho | 6 | 28.0 | 2-1/4 |
| 4 | 7 | CLEMENT LEGEND Closed strongly B/TT G van Niekerk · C S Shum | G van Niekerk | C S Shum | 4 | 7.8 | 2-3/4 |
| 5 | 6 | OWNERS' STAR B/TT N Callan · C S Shum | N Callan | C S Shum | 1 | 10.0 | 3-1/2 |
| 6 | 8 | LUCKY TIME Led early B M F Poon · D J Hall | M F Poon | D J Hall | 3 | 21.0 | 4 |
| 7 | 3 | SPLENDOUR AND GOLD Closed strongly J Moreira · C H Yip | J Moreira | C H Yip | 12 | 7.6 | 4-1/4 |
| 8 | 12 | RULE THEE T H So · P O'Sullivan | T H So | P O'Sullivan | 5 | 26.0 | 5 |
| 9 | 4 | GIANT TURTLE SR/TT K C Leung · A T Millard | K C Leung | A T Millard | 2 | 35.0 | 5 |
| 10 | 2 | SICHUAN DAR Closed strongly B A Sanna · A T Millard | A Sanna | A T Millard | 8 | 38.0 | 5-3/4 |
| 11 | 5 | TASHIDELEK CP/TT K H Chan · J Moore | K H Chan | J Moore | 10 | 9.0 | 11-1/2 |
| 12 | 9 | JOLLY GENE B/H/TT H T Mo · A S Cruz | H T Mo | A S Cruz | 11 | 65.0 | 15 |
Race shape
Model ratings
| Rank | No. | Horse | Win % | Rated price | Pos |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 1 | CHEFANO | 21.4% | 4.68 | 2 |
| 2 | 3 | SPLENDOUR AND GOLD | 20.8% | 4.81 | 7 |
| 3 | 5 | TASHIDELEK | 12.1% | 8.24 | 11 |
| 4 | 7 | CLEMENT LEGEND | 11.2% | 8.94 | 4 |
| 5 | 11 | XIANG BAI QI | 8.4% | 11.96 | 1 |
| 6 | 6 | OWNERS' STAR | 7.4% | 13.54 | 5 |
| 7 | 8 | LUCKY TIME | 5.8% | 17.37 | 6 |
| 8 | 9 | JOLLY GENE | 4.0% | 24.89 | 12 |
| 9 | 2 | SICHUAN DAR | 3.1% | 31.98 | 10 |
| 10 | 4 | GIANT TURTLE | 2.4% | 41.28 | 9 |
| 11 | 12 | RULE THEE | 2.1% | 46.81 | 8 |
| 12 | 10 | PARTY TOGETHER | 1.3% | 76.88 | 3 |
Model vs market
Each dot is a runner: model probability across, market-implied probability up. Dots on the dashed line mean the two agreed; the gold ring is the actual winner.
Ratings are statistical estimates for analysis, not betting advice — the backtest shows no profitable edge against the Hong Kong win market. How the model works →
Dividends
WIN
11 103
PLACE
1 13.5
10 53.5
11 25.5
QUINELLA
1,11 136.5
QUINELLA PLACE
1,10 125.5
1,11 49.5
10,11 325
TIERCE
11,1,10 5,478
TRIO
1,10,11 861
FIRST 4
1,7,10,11 1,140
QUARTET
11,1,10,7 38,912
3 PICK 1
A3 —
A1 —
A2 29.5
All pools (3 more)
7TH DOUBLE
5/1 44.5
5/11 1,105.5
SIX UP
1,4/2,7/3,5/2,12/5,9/1,11 9,215
1/7/5/12/5/11 2,513,439
2 [Z Purton] —
TREBLE
12/5/1 656
12/5/11 14,139