Skip to content

HKJC Guru is an independent statistics service and is not affiliated with, endorsed by, or connected to The Hong Kong Jockey Club.

Happy Valley · 2019-11-06

Race 2

Class 5 GOOD 1650m Course B 12 runners

Race 2 at Happy Valley on 2019-11-06 was Class 5 over 1650m, run on GOOD going. WONDERFUL TIGER, ridden by K Teetan and trained by W Y So, won by HD, with DOCTORS DELIGHT second and ASSOCIATION FANS third. The winner closed strongly from off the pace. The 3.0 favourite CALLING THE SHOTS finished 4th.

Result

Official · 1.40.32
Pos No. Horse Draw Odds Margin
1 11 WONDERFUL TIGER Closed strongly H/XB/TT 1.40.32 ▶ Replay (opens in new tab) K Teetan · W Y So 12 13.0 HD
2 10 DOCTORS DELIGHT Closed strongly H/TT K C Leung · K H Ting 3 7.8 HD
3 3 ASSOCIATION FANS Closed strongly H/SR M F Poon · L Ho 1 6.2 1
4 1 CALLING THE SHOTS B/TT Z Purton · A S Cruz 9 3.0 1-3/4
5 2 GOLD VELVET Closed strongly B J Moreira · A T Millard 11 8.3 2
6 6 GOLDEN CANNON Closed strongly B/H/XB C Y Ho · K W Lui 8 7.9 2
7 9 MEGATRON B/TT K H Chan · P F Yiu 10 8.2 3
8 12 WINNING CIRCLE Led early PC-/B2/TT G van Niekerk · C W Chang 6 12.0 3-1/4
9 8 STRAPPING BAUHINIA A Sanna · Y S Tsui 5 130.0 5
10 5 TIGERLAD B A Badel · R Gibson 4 47.0 6-1/2
11 7 MEDIC DRAGON H-/B M Chadwick · P O'Sullivan 2 28.0 6-1/2
12 4 FORTUNE BUDDY B/TT M L Yeung · T P Yung 7 133.0 10-1/4

Race shape

Beaten lengths
1. WONDERFUL TIGER2. DOCTORS DELIGHT+0.2L3. ASSOCIATION FANS+1L4. CALLING THE SHOTS+1.75L5. GOLD VELVET+2L6. GOLDEN CANNON+2L7. MEGATRON+3L8. WINNING CIRCLE+3.25L9. STRAPPING BAUHINIA+5L10. TIGERLAD+6.5L

Model ratings

Backtest · wf-2019-20
The model's top pick CALLING THE SHOTS (21.7%) finished 4th — the winner WONDERFUL TIGER was rated #6. Out-of-sample backtest: this board was produced by a model trained only on seasons before this race — it never saw this result.
Rank No. Horse Win % Rated price Pos
1 1 CALLING THE SHOTS 21.7% 4.62 4
2 2 GOLD VELVET 17.7% 5.65 5
3 12 WINNING CIRCLE 15.8% 6.33 8
4 3 ASSOCIATION FANS 11.6% 8.60 3
5 9 MEGATRON 8.2% 12.16 7
6 11 WONDERFUL TIGER 6.7% 14.89 1
7 6 GOLDEN CANNON 6.5% 15.27 6
8 10 DOCTORS DELIGHT 5.4% 18.53 2
9 7 MEDIC DRAGON 3.3% 30.27 11
10 8 STRAPPING BAUHINIA 1.2% 84.39 9
11 4 FORTUNE BUDDY 1.1% 91.49 12
12 5 TIGERLAD 0.7% 136.68 10
CALLING THE SHOTSGOLD VELVETWINNING CIRCLEASSOCIATION FANSMEGATRONWONDERFUL TIGER — wonGOLDEN CANNONDOCTORS DELIGHTMEDIC DRAGONSTRAPPING BAUHINIAFORTUNE BUDDYTIGERLAD

Model vs market

Each dot is a runner: model probability across, market-implied probability up. Dots on the dashed line mean the two agreed; the gold ring is the actual winner.

Ratings are statistical estimates for analysis, not betting advice — the backtest shows no profitable edge against the Hong Kong win market. How the model works →

Dividends

Per $10 unit

WIN

11 131

PLACE

3 19

10 21

11 35

QUINELLA

10,11 393.5

QUINELLA PLACE

3,10 57.5

3,11 107

10,11 126

TIERCE

11,10,3 3,843

TRIO

3,10,11 668

FIRST 4

1,3,10,11 456

QUARTET

11,10,3,1 16,381

1ST DOUBLE

5,11/10 54

5,11/11 295

All pools (1 more)

3 PICK 1

A3 25

A2

A1