Happy Valley · 2019-11-06
Race 5
Result
| Pos | No. | Horse | Jockey | Trainer | Draw | Odds | Margin |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 0 | BULLISH GLORY Closed strongly H 1.49.20 ▶ Replay (opens in new tab) J Moreira · C W Chang | J Moreira | C W Chang | 2 | 2.9 | N |
| 2 | 0 | DIONYSUS COLLIN Led early H/XB M Chadwick · K W Lui | M Chadwick | K W Lui | 6 | 6.5 | N |
| 3 | 0 | CHEERFUL STAR Closed strongly TT L Hewitson · F C Lor | L Hewitson | F C Lor | 12 | 17.0 | 1 |
| 4 | 0 | ROYAL RACER H/P N Callan · C Fownes | N Callan | C Fownes | 3 | 6.2 | 1 |
| 5 | 0 | STARLIT KNIGHT H N Wong · Y S Tsui | H N Wong | Y S Tsui | 11 | 15.0 | 1-1/4 |
| 6 | 0 | GOOD DAYS Closed strongly B/TT K Teetan · C S Shum | K Teetan | C S Shum | 1 | 16.0 | 1-3/4 |
| 7 | 0 | HEAVENLY THOUGHT H Z Purton · F C Lor | Z Purton | F C Lor | 5 | 7.7 | 1-3/4 |
| 8 | 0 | GARLIC YEAH Closed strongly B2 C Y Ho · C H Yip | C Y Ho | C H Yip | 10 | 12.0 | 2-1/4 |
| 9 | 0 | SANGRIA Closed strongly A Badel · D E Ferraris | A Badel | D E Ferraris | 9 | 10.0 | 3-1/4 |
| 10 | 0 | GOLDEN TURBO B K C Leung · P O'Sullivan | K C Leung | P O'Sullivan | 4 | 175.0 | 9-3/4 |
| 11 | 0 | GREAT SMART CP-/B2 T H So · L Ho | T H So | L Ho | 8 | 172.0 | 11-1/2 |
| 12 | 0 | CIRCUIT NUMBER ONE H/TT M L Yeung · A S Cruz | M L Yeung | A S Cruz | 7 | 16.0 | 20 |
This site does not show odds as they change: the odds here are final prices after a race, or overnight prices before it.
Race 5 at Happy Valley on 2019-11-06 was Class 4 over 1800m, run on GOOD going. BULLISH GLORY, ridden by J Moreira and trained by C W Chang, won by N, with DIONYSUS COLLIN second and CHEERFUL STAR third. The winner closed strongly from off the pace. Victory came as the 2.9 favourite.
Race shape
Model ratings
| Rank | No. | Horse | Win % | Rated price | Pos |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 0 | BULLISH GLORY | 31.3% | 3.20 | 1 |
| 2 | 0 | HEAVENLY THOUGHT | 19.5% | 5.13 | 7 |
| 3 | 0 | ROYAL RACER | 10.9% | 9.16 | 4 |
| 4 | 0 | DIONYSUS COLLIN | 10.3% | 9.75 | 2 |
| 5 | 0 | GOOD DAYS | 6.0% | 16.79 | 6 |
| 6 | 0 | STARLIT KNIGHT | 5.4% | 18.49 | 5 |
| 7 | 0 | CIRCUIT NUMBER ONE | 4.8% | 20.88 | 12 |
| 8 | 0 | CHEERFUL STAR | 4.2% | 23.87 | 3 |
| 9 | 0 | SANGRIA | 3.8% | 26.46 | 9 |
| 10 | 0 | GARLIC YEAH | 2.6% | 37.90 | 8 |
| 11 | 0 | GREAT SMART | 0.7% | 146.78 | 11 |
| 12 | 0 | GOLDEN TURBO | 0.6% | 159.98 | 10 |
Model vs market
Each dot is a runner: model probability across, market-implied probability up. Dots on the dashed line mean the two agreed; the gold ring is the actual winner.
Ratings are statistical estimates for analysis, not betting advice — the backtest shows no profitable edge against the Hong Kong win market. How the model works →
Dividends
WIN
10 29.5
PLACE
9 45.5
10 14.5
12 20.5
QUINELLA
10,12 101
QUINELLA PLACE
9,10 98.5
9,12 209.5
10,12 42.5
TIERCE
10,12,9 2,307
TRIO
9,10,12 569
FIRST 4
6,9,10,12 837
QUARTET
10,12,9,6 12,877
1ST DOUBLE TRIO
4,5,7/9,10,12 18,853
All pools (2 more)
3 PICK 1
A1 20
A2 —
A3 —
4TH DOUBLE
5/10 168
5/12 86.5