Happy Valley · 2019-11-06
Race 6
Race 6 at Happy Valley on 2019-11-06 was Class 4 over 1200m, run on GOOD going. PLAY TO WIN, ridden by K C Leung and trained by T P Yung, won by 1/2, with LADY FIRST second and SUPER WINNER third. The 2.8 favourite LADY FIRST finished 2nd.
Result
| Pos | No. | Horse | Jockey | Trainer | Draw | Odds | Margin |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 12 | PLAY TO WIN H/TT 1.10.14 ▶ Replay (opens in new tab) K C Leung · T P Yung | K C Leung | T P Yung | 4 | 56.0 | 1/2 |
| 2 | 1 | LADY FIRST TT Z Purton · K H Ting | Z Purton | K H Ting | 1 | 2.8 | 1/2 |
| 3 | 6 | SUPER WINNER TT1 K Teetan · C H Yip | K Teetan | C H Yip | 9 | 12.0 | 2 |
| 4 | 11 | FOCUS G van Niekerk · P F Yiu | G van Niekerk | P F Yiu | 11 | 9.6 | 2-1/4 |
| 5 | 3 | SHOUSON B J Moreira · J Moore | J Moreira | J Moore | 12 | 7.3 | 2-1/4 |
| 6 | 10 | GUN GUN WIN TT M F Poon · W Y So | M F Poon | W Y So | 5 | 66.0 | 3-3/4 |
| 7 | 7 | THE ONE B R Bayliss · Y S Tsui | R Bayliss | Y S Tsui | 8 | 92.0 | 3-3/4 |
| 8 | 9 | COMPASSION STAR M L Yeung · K L Man | M L Yeung | K L Man | 2 | 6.0 | 3-3/4 |
| 9 | 4 | KHAKI B- A Badel · A T Millard | A Badel | A T Millard | 7 | 4.9 | 3-3/4 |
| 10 | 8 | THE SHOW B H N Wong · C W Chang | H N Wong | C W Chang | 10 | 98.0 | 5-1/4 |
| 11 | 2 | SPEEDY DRAGON CP- C Y Ho · D J Hall | C Y Ho | D J Hall | 3 | 12.0 | 6 |
| 12 | 5 | REFINEMENT E1/TT1 B Shinn · J Size | B Shinn | J Size | 6 | 29.0 | 8-1/2 |
Race shape
Model ratings
| Rank | No. | Horse | Win % | Rated price | Pos |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 3 | SHOUSON | 30.3% | 3.30 | 5 |
| 2 | 1 | LADY FIRST | 21.2% | 4.72 | 2 |
| 3 | 2 | SPEEDY DRAGON | 9.9% | 10.15 | 11 |
| 4 | 9 | COMPASSION STAR | 9.0% | 11.14 | 8 |
| 5 | 6 | SUPER WINNER | 7.3% | 13.79 | 3 |
| 6 | 4 | KHAKI | 7.0% | 14.35 | 9 |
| 7 | 11 | FOCUS | 5.5% | 18.14 | 4 |
| 8 | 7 | THE ONE | 2.7% | 36.74 | 7 |
| 9 | 5 | REFINEMENT | 2.5% | 40.52 | 12 |
| 10 | 10 | GUN GUN WIN | 1.6% | 62.33 | 6 |
| 11 | 8 | THE SHOW | 1.6% | 62.51 | 10 |
| 12 | 12 | PLAY TO WIN | 1.6% | 62.95 | 1 |
Model vs market
Each dot is a runner: model probability across, market-implied probability up. Dots on the dashed line mean the two agreed; the gold ring is the actual winner.
Ratings are statistical estimates for analysis, not betting advice — the backtest shows no profitable edge against the Hong Kong win market. How the model works →
Dividends
WIN
12 567.5
PLACE
1 14
6 45
12 125.5
QUINELLA
1,12 751.5
QUINELLA PLACE
1,6 111.5
1,12 220.5
6,12 866
TIERCE
12,1,6 40,855
TRIO
1,6,12 4,047
FIRST 4
1,6,11,12 5,951
QUARTET
12,1,6,11 254,733
3 PICK 1
A3 27
A2 —
A1 —
All pools (1 more)
5TH DOUBLE
10/1 11.5
10/12 1,890