Happy Valley · 2019-11-06
Race 3
Race 3 at Happy Valley on 2019-11-06 was Class 4 over 1200m, run on GOOD going. MR PICASSO, ridden by Z Purton and trained by D J Hall, won by N, with MASTER ALBERT second and MEHBOOB third. Victory came as the 3.3 favourite.
Result
| Pos | No. | Horse | Jockey | Trainer | Draw | Odds | Margin |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 1 | MR PICASSO B 1.10.12 ▶ Replay (opens in new tab) Z Purton · D J Hall | Z Purton | D J Hall | 2 | 3.3 | N |
| 2 | 11 | MASTER ALBERT B/E/TT K Teetan · W Y So | K Teetan | W Y So | 4 | 4.5 | N |
| 3 | 9 | MEHBOOB XB M Chadwick · P O'Sullivan | M Chadwick | P O'Sullivan | 1 | 4.0 | 1 |
| 4 | 8 | SIMPLY FLUKE A Badel · C H Yip | A Badel | C H Yip | 9 | 11.0 | 1-3/4 |
| 5 | 7 | GOLDEN GLORY B/TT K C Leung · K H Ting | K C Leung | K H Ting | 3 | 12.0 | 3-1/4 |
| 6 | 6 | GINTOKI B B Shinn · T P Yung | B Shinn | T P Yung | 8 | 6.5 | 3-1/4 |
| 7 | 10 | LIGHTNING STEED SR-/TT1 A Sanna · C Fownes | A Sanna | C Fownes | 10 | 14.0 | 4-1/4 |
| 8 | 5 | BABY STORM H1/TT1 T H So · L Ho | T H So | L Ho | 5 | 86.0 | 4-1/2 |
| 9 | 2 | WILLFUL M L Yeung · Y S Tsui | M L Yeung | Y S Tsui | 6 | 118.0 | 8-1/2 |
| 10 | 4 | E GENERATION K H Chan · K L Man | K H Chan | K L Man | 7 | 28.0 | 11-1/2 |
| 11 | 3 | FLYING EMPEROR B H N Wong · C W Chang | H N Wong | C W Chang | 11 | 205.0 | 16-1/4 |
| — | 0 | NAVAS J Moreira · R Gibson | J Moreira | R Gibson | — | — | — |
| — | 12 | BRILLIANT C Y Ho · K W Lui | C Y Ho | K W Lui | — | — | — |
Race shape
Model ratings
| Rank | No. | Horse | Win % | Rated price | Pos |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 11 | MASTER ALBERT | 26.8% | 3.73 | 2 |
| 2 | 9 | MEHBOOB | 25.6% | 3.91 | 3 |
| 3 | 1 | MR PICASSO | 22.4% | 4.47 | 1 |
| 4 | 6 | GINTOKI | 7.1% | 14.15 | 6 |
| 5 | 10 | LIGHTNING STEED | 5.3% | 18.99 | 7 |
| 6 | 7 | GOLDEN GLORY | 4.5% | 22.04 | 5 |
| 7 | 4 | E GENERATION | 2.5% | 40.21 | 10 |
| 8 | 8 | SIMPLY FLUKE | 2.2% | 44.88 | 4 |
| 9 | 5 | BABY STORM | 1.8% | 56.59 | 8 |
| 10 | 3 | FLYING EMPEROR | 1.0% | 95.30 | 11 |
| 11 | 2 | WILLFUL | 0.8% | 121.54 | 9 |
Model vs market
Each dot is a runner: model probability across, market-implied probability up. Dots on the dashed line mean the two agreed; the gold ring is the actual winner.
Ratings are statistical estimates for analysis, not betting advice — the backtest shows no profitable edge against the Hong Kong win market. How the model works →
Dividends
WIN
1 33.5
PLACE
1 13.5
9 16.5
11 18.5
QUINELLA
1,11 87
QUINELLA PLACE
1,9 31
1,11 33.5
9,11 41.5
TIERCE
1,11,9 485
TRIO
1,9,11 80
FIRST 4
1,8,9,11 249
QUARTET
1,11,9,8 4,530
2ND DOUBLE
11/1,12 457.5
11/11 80.5
All pools (1 more)
3 PICK 1
A1 18.5
A3 —
A2 —