Happy Valley · 2019-11-06
Race 4
Race 4 at Happy Valley on 2019-11-06 was Class 4 over 1650m, run on GOOD going. KIRAM, ridden by N Callan and trained by D E Ferraris, won by 1-1/4, with ZHAN JIANG ROCKS second and C P POWER third. The winner closed strongly from off the pace. The 5.1 favourite ZHAN JIANG ROCKS finished 2nd.
Result
| Pos | No. | Horse | Jockey | Trainer | Draw | Odds | Margin |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 5 | KIRAM Closed strongly 1.40.58 ▶ Replay (opens in new tab) N Callan · D E Ferraris | N Callan | D E Ferraris | 1 | 5.8 | 1-1/4 |
| 2 | 4 | ZHAN JIANG ROCKS Closed strongly TT Z Purton · W Y So | Z Purton | W Y So | 12 | 5.1 | 1-1/4 |
| 3 | 7 | C P POWER Closed strongly V/TT G van Niekerk · A T Millard | G van Niekerk | A T Millard | 10 | 9.7 | 1-1/2 |
| 4 | 9 | DOR DOR Closed strongly H U Rispoli · J Size | U Rispoli | J Size | 9 | 8.4 | 1-1/2 |
| 5 | 11 | MANAGEMENT STAR Closed strongly B/TT K Teetan · K W Lui | K Teetan | K W Lui | 6 | 8.5 | 2-1/2 |
| 6 | 12 | DIAMOND LEGEND V/TT A Badel · A S Cruz | A Badel | A S Cruz | 5 | 11.0 | 2-3/4 |
| 7 | 3 | WON WON TOO TT C Y Ho · C H Yip | C Y Ho | C H Yip | 2 | 10.0 | 3-1/4 |
| 8 | 2 | STARSHIP B R Bayliss · P O'Sullivan | R Bayliss | P O'Sullivan | 4 | 16.0 | 3-1/2 |
| 9 | 6 | FAITHFUL TRINITY H/P/TT K C Leung · R Gibson | K C Leung | R Gibson | 11 | 14.0 | 3-1/2 |
| 10 | 8 | PRESIDENT STAR Led early B/TT M Chadwick · C S Shum | M Chadwick | C S Shum | 3 | 57.0 | 3-1/2 |
| 11 | 1 | THUNDER STOMP B J Moreira · Y S Tsui | J Moreira | Y S Tsui | 8 | 5.8 | 5 |
| 12 | 10 | SHANGHAI RUSKY H M L Yeung · T P Yung | M L Yeung | T P Yung | 7 | 157.0 | 14-3/4 |
Race shape
Model ratings
| Rank | No. | Horse | Win % | Rated price | Pos |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 1 | THUNDER STOMP | 26.1% | 3.83 | 11 |
| 2 | 4 | ZHAN JIANG ROCKS | 15.9% | 6.28 | 2 |
| 3 | 11 | MANAGEMENT STAR | 12.7% | 7.89 | 5 |
| 4 | 12 | DIAMOND LEGEND | 10.0% | 10.03 | 6 |
| 5 | 5 | KIRAM | 7.5% | 13.31 | 1 |
| 6 | 9 | DOR DOR | 7.3% | 13.76 | 4 |
| 7 | 2 | STARSHIP | 7.0% | 14.22 | 8 |
| 8 | 7 | C P POWER | 5.0% | 19.86 | 3 |
| 9 | 6 | FAITHFUL TRINITY | 3.6% | 27.82 | 9 |
| 10 | 3 | WON WON TOO | 2.4% | 42.50 | 7 |
| 11 | 8 | PRESIDENT STAR | 1.8% | 55.52 | 10 |
| 12 | 10 | SHANGHAI RUSKY | 0.7% | 136.18 | 12 |
Model vs market
Each dot is a runner: model probability across, market-implied probability up. Dots on the dashed line mean the two agreed; the gold ring is the actual winner.
Ratings are statistical estimates for analysis, not betting advice — the backtest shows no profitable edge against the Hong Kong win market. How the model works →
Dividends
WIN
5 58.5
PLACE
4 21
5 19.5
7 31
QUINELLA
4,5 170
QUINELLA PLACE
4,5 61
4,7 103
5,7 81
TIERCE
5,4,7 1,771
TRIO
4,5,7 335
FIRST 4
4,5,7,9 474
QUARTET
5,4,7,9 9,537
3 PICK 1
A1 29
A2 —
A3 —
All pools (1 more)
3RD DOUBLE
1,12/4 35
1,12/5 200