Happy Valley · 2019-11-06
Race 7
Race 7 at Happy Valley on 2019-11-06 was Class 3 over 1650m, run on GOOD going. HIGH REV, ridden by Z Purton and trained by D J Hall, won by 3/4, with CHARIZARD second and FARSHAD third. The winner closed strongly from off the pace. Victory came as the 1.7 favourite.
Result
| Pos | No. | Horse | Jockey | Trainer | Draw | Odds | Margin |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 3 | HIGH REV Closed strongly B/XB 1.39.88 ▶ Replay (opens in new tab) Z Purton · D J Hall | Z Purton | D J Hall | 2 | 1.7 | 3/4 |
| 2 | 4 | CHARIZARD Closed strongly TT N Callan · D E Ferraris | N Callan | D E Ferraris | 8 | 11.0 | 3/4 |
| 3 | 10 | FARSHAD Closed strongly B/SR1 H W Lai · Y S Tsui | H W Lai | Y S Tsui | 6 | 14.0 | 1-3/4 |
| 4 | 2 | FEARLESS FIRE XB K Teetan · C Fownes | K Teetan | C Fownes | 7 | 21.0 | 2-1/2 |
| 5 | 9 | ACCLAIMED LIGHT B M Chadwick · P O'Sullivan | M Chadwick | P O'Sullivan | 5 | 25.0 | 2-3/4 |
| 6 | 1 | MY ALLY Led early TT K H Chan · J Moore | K H Chan | J Moore | 9 | 4.6 | 3 |
| 7 | 7 | STIMULATION Closed strongly CP/TT M L Yeung · A S Cruz | M L Yeung | A S Cruz | 10 | 21.0 | 4-1/2 |
| 8 | 6 | HAR HAR HEART J Moreira · J Size | J Moreira | J Size | 1 | 10.0 | 5-1/2 |
| 9 | 8 | CHUNG WAH SPIRIT P-/TT H N Wong · C H Yip | H N Wong | C H Yip | 3 | 51.0 | 5-1/2 |
| 10 | 5 | HAPPY FAMILY H/P T H So · L Ho | T H So | L Ho | 4 | 101.0 | 8 |
Race shape
Model ratings
| Rank | No. | Horse | Win % | Rated price | Pos |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 3 | HIGH REV | 44.0% | 2.27 | 1 |
| 2 | 6 | HAR HAR HEART | 16.2% | 6.18 | 8 |
| 3 | 2 | FEARLESS FIRE | 9.0% | 11.09 | 4 |
| 4 | 1 | MY ALLY | 9.0% | 11.14 | 6 |
| 5 | 4 | CHARIZARD | 5.9% | 16.90 | 2 |
| 6 | 9 | ACCLAIMED LIGHT | 5.6% | 17.75 | 5 |
| 7 | 7 | STIMULATION | 5.4% | 18.41 | 7 |
| 8 | 10 | FARSHAD | 3.2% | 31.39 | 3 |
| 9 | 8 | CHUNG WAH SPIRIT | 0.9% | 109.16 | 9 |
| 10 | 5 | HAPPY FAMILY | 0.7% | 141.45 | 10 |
Model vs market
Each dot is a runner: model probability across, market-implied probability up. Dots on the dashed line mean the two agreed; the gold ring is the actual winner.
Ratings are statistical estimates for analysis, not betting advice — the backtest shows no profitable edge against the Hong Kong win market. How the model works →
Dividends
WIN
3 17
PLACE
3 12
4 24.5
10 27
QUINELLA
3,4 89.5
QUINELLA PLACE
3,4 38
3,10 45
4,10 129
TIERCE
3,4,10 926
TRIO
3,4,10 246
FIRST 4
2,3,4,10 735
QUARTET
3,4,10,2 6,476
3 PICK 1
A1 17
A3 —
A2 —
All pools (3 more)
6TH DOUBLE
12/3 1,059
12/4 970
TRIPLE TRIO
9,10,12/1,6,12/3,4,10 4,889,944
TRIPLE TRIO (CONSOLATION)
9,10,12/1,6,12/Any Combination 24,154