Happy Valley · 2019-11-27
Race 1
Race 1 at Happy Valley on 2019-11-27 was Class 5 over 1000m, run on GOOD going. GOUTEN OF GARO, ridden by N Callan and trained by D E Ferraris, won by 2, with EXCEL DELIGHT second and LA BOMBA third. Victory came as the 3.8 favourite.
Result
| Pos | No. | Horse | Jockey | Trainer | Draw | Odds | Margin |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 6 | GOUTEN OF GARO B2/TT 0.57.06 ▶ Replay (opens in new tab) N Callan · D E Ferraris | N Callan | D E Ferraris | 3 | 3.8 | 2 |
| 2 | 2 | EXCEL DELIGHT H J Moreira · J Size | J Moreira | J Size | 2 | 11.0 | 2 |
| 3 | 4 | LA BOMBA B1/XB1 A Badel · D J Whyte | A Badel | D J Whyte | 5 | 4.9 | 4 |
| 4 | 11 | SHOW MISSION B H W Lai · C W Chang | H W Lai | C W Chang | 1 | 14.0 | 4-3/4 |
| 5 | 7 | ROYAL CHOCOLATE SR/TT S De Sousa · W Y So | S De Sousa | W Y So | 4 | 5.2 | 5-1/2 |
| 6 | 12 | WHISTLE UP V/XB H T Mo · L Ho | H T Mo | L Ho | 9 | 25.0 | 6 |
| 7 | 3 | WINWIN THIRTYTHREE B M F Poon · P F Yiu | M F Poon | P F Yiu | 11 | 11.0 | 6 |
| 8 | 9 | HAPPY COOPERATION H/TT R Bayliss · K L Man | R Bayliss | K L Man | 7 | 24.0 | 7 |
| 9 | 1 | DEMONS ROCK B1 C Y Ho · D J Hall | C Y Ho | D J Hall | 10 | 5.8 | 7-1/4 |
| 10 | 5 | BANDY B C Schofield · R Gibson | C Schofield | R Gibson | 12 | 59.0 | 8-1/4 |
| 11 | 10 | TRIUMPHANT LORD B-/TT B Shinn · C S Shum | B Shinn | C S Shum | 8 | 56.0 | 8-3/4 |
| 12 | 8 | GREAT VICTORY H-/B1 U Rispoli · C H Yip | U Rispoli | C H Yip | 6 | 37.0 | 21-1/2 |
Race shape
Model ratings
| Rank | No. | Horse | Win % | Rated price | Pos |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 6 | GOUTEN OF GARO | 23.4% | 4.28 | 1 |
| 2 | 3 | WINWIN THIRTYTHREE | 15.2% | 6.60 | 7 |
| 3 | 2 | EXCEL DELIGHT | 12.5% | 8.02 | 2 |
| 4 | 7 | ROYAL CHOCOLATE | 11.3% | 8.82 | 5 |
| 5 | 1 | DEMONS ROCK | 9.3% | 10.71 | 9 |
| 6 | 4 | LA BOMBA | 8.3% | 12.05 | 3 |
| 7 | 11 | SHOW MISSION | 6.2% | 16.02 | 4 |
| 8 | 9 | HAPPY COOPERATION | 3.9% | 25.43 | 8 |
| 9 | 12 | WHISTLE UP | 3.7% | 27.34 | 6 |
| 10 | 10 | TRIUMPHANT LORD | 2.4% | 41.10 | 11 |
| 11 | 5 | BANDY | 2.2% | 44.95 | 10 |
| 12 | 8 | GREAT VICTORY | 1.5% | 64.65 | 12 |
Model vs market
Each dot is a runner: model probability across, market-implied probability up. Dots on the dashed line mean the two agreed; the gold ring is the actual winner.
Ratings are statistical estimates for analysis, not betting advice — the backtest shows no profitable edge against the Hong Kong win market. How the model works →
Dividends
WIN
6 38
PLACE
2 35.5
4 20
6 16
QUINELLA
2,6 218.5
QUINELLA PLACE
2,4 114.5
2,6 72
4,6 58
TIERCE
6,2,4 2,686
TRIO
2,4,6 462
FIRST 4
2,4,6,11 1,037
QUARTET
6,2,4,11 27,057
3 PICK 1
A3 —
A2 20
A1 —