Happy Valley · 2019-11-27
Race 4
Result
| Pos | No. | Horse | Jockey | Trainer | Draw | Odds | Margin |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 0 | ABOVE Closed strongly B 2.17.32 ▶ Replay (opens in new tab) S De Sousa · J Moore | S De Sousa | J Moore | 10 | 4.9 | HD |
| 2 | 0 | DIONYSUS COLLIN Closed strongly H/XB J Moreira · K W Lui | J Moreira | K W Lui | 6 | 3.0 | HD |
| 3 | 0 | GARLIC YEAH Closed strongly B M Chadwick · C H Yip | M Chadwick | C H Yip | 8 | 20.0 | 1-1/2 |
| 4 | 0 | CHEERFUL STAR Closed strongly TT L Hewitson · F C Lor | L Hewitson | F C Lor | 1 | 6.4 | 2 |
| 5 | 0 | BULLISH GLORY Closed strongly H C Schofield · C W Chang | C Schofield | C W Chang | 5 | 13.0 | 2-1/4 |
| 6 | 0 | SANGRIA Closed strongly N Callan · D E Ferraris | N Callan | D E Ferraris | 3 | 14.0 | 2-3/4 |
| 7 | 0 | PERFECT TO PLAY Closed strongly H/TT A Badel · C Fownes | A Badel | C Fownes | 4 | 10.0 | 2-3/4 |
| 8 | 0 | GOOD DAYS B/TT B Shinn · C S Shum | B Shinn | C S Shum | 9 | 36.0 | 3-1/4 |
| 9 | 0 | HAPPY ROCKY Closed strongly B/TT A Sanna · C W Chang | A Sanna | C W Chang | 11 | 36.0 | 3-1/2 |
| 10 | 0 | FAITHFUL TRINITY H/P/TT C Y Ho · R Gibson | C Y Ho | R Gibson | 7 | 17.0 | 4-1/2 |
| 11 | 0 | AMAZING AGILITY SR/TT H W Lai · L Ho | H W Lai | L Ho | 2 | 9.1 | 5 |
| 12 | 0 | GOLDEN TURBO Led early B/TT1 M F Poon · P O'Sullivan | M F Poon | P O'Sullivan | 12 | 128.0 | 11-1/2 |
This site does not show odds as they change: the odds here are final prices after a race, or overnight prices before it.
Race 4 at Happy Valley on 2019-11-27 was Class 4 over 2200m, run on GOOD going. ABOVE, ridden by S De Sousa and trained by J Moore, won by HD, with DIONYSUS COLLIN second and GARLIC YEAH third. The winner closed strongly from off the pace. The 3.0 favourite DIONYSUS COLLIN finished 2nd.
Race shape
Model ratings
| Rank | No. | Horse | Win % | Rated price | Pos |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 0 | DIONYSUS COLLIN | 34.1% | 2.93 | 2 |
| 2 | 0 | ABOVE | 15.5% | 6.46 | 1 |
| 3 | 0 | BULLISH GLORY | 14.7% | 6.79 | 5 |
| 4 | 0 | CHEERFUL STAR | 10.0% | 10.03 | 4 |
| 5 | 0 | SANGRIA | 5.5% | 18.34 | 6 |
| 6 | 0 | PERFECT TO PLAY | 4.5% | 22.46 | 7 |
| 7 | 0 | AMAZING AGILITY | 4.2% | 23.95 | 11 |
| 8 | 0 | FAITHFUL TRINITY | 3.6% | 27.59 | 10 |
| 9 | 0 | GOOD DAYS | 3.1% | 32.67 | 8 |
| 10 | 0 | GARLIC YEAH | 2.8% | 35.27 | 3 |
| 11 | 0 | HAPPY ROCKY | 1.2% | 86.15 | 9 |
| 12 | 0 | GOLDEN TURBO | 1.0% | 102.02 | 12 |
Model vs market
Each dot is a runner: model probability across, market-implied probability up. Dots on the dashed line mean the two agreed; the gold ring is the actual winner.
Ratings are statistical estimates for analysis, not betting advice — the backtest shows no profitable edge against the Hong Kong win market. How the model works →
Dividends
WIN
6 49.5
PLACE
6 19.5
10 15.5
12 41.5
QUINELLA
6,10 84
QUINELLA PLACE
6,10 37
6,12 127
10,12 94
TIERCE
6,10,12 1,774
TRIO
6,10,12 341
FIRST 4
6,8,10,12 395
QUARTET
6,10,12,8 8,739
3 PICK 1
A2 28.5
A3 —
A1 —
All pools (1 more)
3RD DOUBLE
3/6 523.5
3/10 49