Happy Valley · 2019-11-27
Race 5
Race 5 at Happy Valley on 2019-11-27 was Class 4 over 1200m, run on GOOD going. MEHBOOB, ridden by M Chadwick and trained by P O'Sullivan, won by 1/2, with KING'S TROOPER second and REGENCY POET third. The 2.2 favourite KING'S TROOPER finished 2nd.
Result
| Pos | No. | Horse | Jockey | Trainer | Draw | Odds | Margin |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 10 | MEHBOOB XB 1.10.61 ▶ Replay (opens in new tab) M Chadwick · P O'Sullivan | M Chadwick | P O'Sullivan | 9 | 9.6 | 1/2 |
| 2 | 4 | KING'S TROOPER J Moreira · P F Yiu | J Moreira | P F Yiu | 3 | 2.2 | 1/2 |
| 3 | 6 | REGENCY POET C Schofield · K L Man | C Schofield | K L Man | 5 | 4.2 | 3/4 |
| 4 | 3 | SPLIT OF A SECOND H M F Poon · L Ho | M F Poon | L Ho | 12 | 18.0 | 1-1/4 |
| 5 | 5 | STAR OF THEHARBOUR XB1 C Y Ho · D J Hall | C Y Ho | D J Hall | 1 | 58.0 | 1-3/4 |
| 6 | 9 | SPEEDY MISSILE H U Rispoli · K H Ting | U Rispoli | K H Ting | 2 | 38.0 | 2 |
| 7 | 1 | FARSHAD B/SR H W Lai · Y S Tsui | H W Lai | Y S Tsui | 8 | 11.0 | 2-1/2 |
| 8 | 2 | JOLLY CONVERGENCE CP N Callan · R Gibson | N Callan | R Gibson | 10 | 22.0 | 2-3/4 |
| 9 | 7 | GINTOKI B H N Wong · T P Yung | H N Wong | T P Yung | 11 | 25.0 | 4-3/4 |
| 10 | 8 | LITTLE THUNDER S De Sousa · A T Millard | S De Sousa | A T Millard | 7 | 6.8 | 4-3/4 |
| 11 | 11 | SPICY REALLY B/H A Sanna · F C Lor | A Sanna | F C Lor | 4 | 73.0 | 5-1/2 |
| — | 12 | PLANET NICCONI T H So · W Y So | T H So | W Y So | — | — | — |
Race shape
Model ratings
| Rank | No. | Horse | Win % | Rated price | Pos |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 4 | KING'S TROOPER | 39.2% | 2.55 | 2 |
| 2 | 8 | LITTLE THUNDER | 14.4% | 6.95 | 10 |
| 3 | 10 | MEHBOOB | 10.3% | 9.74 | 1 |
| 4 | 1 | FARSHAD | 8.5% | 11.71 | 7 |
| 5 | 9 | SPEEDY MISSILE | 6.8% | 14.61 | 6 |
| 6 | 7 | GINTOKI | 5.2% | 19.22 | 9 |
| 7 | 2 | JOLLY CONVERGENCE | 4.6% | 21.64 | 8 |
| 8 | 6 | REGENCY POET | 4.3% | 23.35 | 3 |
| 9 | 3 | SPLIT OF A SECOND | 3.4% | 29.14 | 4 |
| 10 | 11 | SPICY REALLY | 1.9% | 53.28 | 11 |
| 11 | 5 | STAR OF THEHARBOUR | 1.4% | 72.83 | 5 |
Model vs market
Each dot is a runner: model probability across, market-implied probability up. Dots on the dashed line mean the two agreed; the gold ring is the actual winner.
Ratings are statistical estimates for analysis, not betting advice — the backtest shows no profitable edge against the Hong Kong win market. How the model works →
Dividends
WIN
10 96
PLACE
4 11.5
6 15.5
10 26
QUINELLA
4,10 118.5
QUINELLA PLACE
4,6 26
4,10 44.5
6,10 73.5
TIERCE
10,4,6 1,461
TRIO
4,6,10 162
FIRST 4
3,4,6,10 506
QUARTET
10,4,6,3 16,005
1ST DOUBLE TRIO
6,10,12/10>4,6,12 5,973
All pools (2 more)
3 PICK 1
A1 —
A3 —
A2 23.5
4TH DOUBLE
6/4,12 22.5
6/10 389