Happy Valley · 2019-11-27
Race 8
Result
| Pos | No. | Horse | Jockey | Trainer | Draw | Odds | Margin |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 0 | STIMULATION Closed strongly CP/TT 1.49.08 ▶ Replay (opens in new tab) C Y Ho · A S Cruz | C Y Ho | A S Cruz | 5 | 13.0 | SH |
| 2 | 0 | SUPER ELEGANCE Closed strongly CP/TT C Schofield · K H Ting | C Schofield | K H Ting | 11 | 8.5 | SH |
| 3 | 0 | RED ELYSEES Closed strongly B S De Sousa · K L Man | S De Sousa | K L Man | 10 | 19.0 | HD |
| 4 | 0 | TASHIDELEK CP/TT N Callan · J Moore | N Callan | J Moore | 7 | 6.3 | N |
| 5 | 0 | JOLLY HONOUR Closed strongly B/TT B Shinn · Y S Tsui | B Shinn | Y S Tsui | 2 | 10.0 | 1/2 |
| 6 | 0 | CLEMENT LEGEND Closed strongly B/TT A Badel · C S Shum | A Badel | C S Shum | 4 | 12.0 | 1/2 |
| 7 | 0 | PARTY TOGETHER Led early H T Mo · L Ho | H T Mo | L Ho | 6 | 8.6 | 1-3/4 |
| 8 | 0 | DEFINING MOMENT A Sanna · C Fownes | A Sanna | C Fownes | 1 | 4.1 | 1-3/4 |
| 9 | 0 | XIANG BAI QI Closed strongly U Rispoli · D E Ferraris | U Rispoli | D E Ferraris | 12 | 15.0 | 1-3/4 |
| 10 | 0 | COT CAMPBELL B/XB J Moreira · A T Millard | J Moreira | A T Millard | 9 | 7.5 | 2-1/2 |
| 11 | 0 | ACCLAIMED LIGHT B M Chadwick · P O'Sullivan | M Chadwick | P O'Sullivan | 3 | 26.0 | 4-3/4 |
| 12 | 0 | LUCKY TIME B M F Poon · D J Hall | M F Poon | D J Hall | 8 | 23.0 | 5-1/2 |
This site does not show odds as they change: the odds here are final prices after a race, or overnight prices before it.
Race 8 at Happy Valley on 2019-11-27 was Class 3 over 1800m, run on GOOD going. STIMULATION, ridden by C Y Ho and trained by A S Cruz, won by SH, with SUPER ELEGANCE second and RED ELYSEES third. The winner closed strongly from off the pace. The 4.1 favourite DEFINING MOMENT finished 8th.
Race shape
Model ratings
| Rank | No. | Horse | Win % | Rated price | Pos |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 0 | COT CAMPBELL | 27.0% | 3.70 | 10 |
| 2 | 0 | STIMULATION | 11.6% | 8.59 | 1 |
| 3 | 0 | SUPER ELEGANCE | 8.9% | 11.29 | 2 |
| 4 | 0 | PARTY TOGETHER | 7.2% | 13.90 | 7 |
| 5 | 0 | XIANG BAI QI | 7.0% | 14.22 | 9 |
| 6 | 0 | DEFINING MOMENT | 6.3% | 15.78 | 8 |
| 7 | 0 | TASHIDELEK | 6.3% | 15.98 | 4 |
| 8 | 0 | CLEMENT LEGEND | 6.2% | 16.10 | 6 |
| 9 | 0 | JOLLY HONOUR | 5.1% | 19.51 | 5 |
| 10 | 0 | ACCLAIMED LIGHT | 5.0% | 20.08 | 11 |
| 11 | 0 | RED ELYSEES | 4.8% | 20.83 | 3 |
| 12 | 0 | LUCKY TIME | 4.6% | 21.87 | 12 |
Model vs market
Each dot is a runner: model probability across, market-implied probability up. Dots on the dashed line mean the two agreed; the gold ring is the actual winner.
Ratings are statistical estimates for analysis, not betting advice — the backtest shows no profitable edge against the Hong Kong win market. How the model works →
Dividends
WIN
7 136.5
PLACE
7 41.5
9 55
10 27.5
QUINELLA
7,10 522.5
QUINELLA PLACE
7,9 444.5
7,10 188.5
9,10 276
TIERCE
7,10,9 19,336
TRIO
7,9,10 3,484
FIRST 4
3,7,9,10 7,214
QUARTET
7,10,9,3 205,905
2ND DOUBLE TRIO
3,4,10/7,9,10 59,276
All pools (2 more)
3 PICK 1
A2 —
A1 43.5
A3 —
7TH DOUBLE
4/7 558
4/10 77